Aaron Ford is favored to win Nevada's governorship.
Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo. The model has Ford ahead by 3.1 points, winning 70 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,232,832 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ford D | 608,131 | 49.3% |
| Joe Lombardo R | 570,333 | 46.3% |
| Other / None of These Candidates O | 54,368 | 4.4% |
| Total | 1,232,832 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.6 and R +4.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +3.2 | |
| Global Strategy Group for Ford (D) | 700 LV | 2d | R +3.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 708 LV | 19d | R +2.5 |
| Emerson College | 680 LV | 37d | D +2.7 |
| Tarrance Group (R) | 519 LV | 78d | R +5.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 558 LV | 91d | R +1.0 |
| Grassroots Targeting (R) | 500 LV | 99d | R +9.6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 600 LV | 108d | R +5.6 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 700 LV | 157d | R +5.3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 845 RV | 216d | R +1.7 |
| Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | 240d | R +4.0 |
| Emerson College | 800 RV | 331d | D +0.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 766 RV | 367d | R +3.7 |
| Vote TXT | 412 RV | 1245d | R +21.3 |
Read from 188,452 ballots cast so far in Nevada, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
43 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Catherine Cortez MastoU.S. Senatorsource
- Jacky RosenU.S. Senatorsource
- Steven HorsfordU.S. Representative NV-4source
- Susie LeeU.S. Representative NV-3source
- Dina TitusU.S. Representative NV-1source
- Gavin NewsomGovernor of Californiasource
- Wes MooreGovernor of Marylandsource
- Reuben D'SilvaNevada assemblyman, AD-28source
Larry Sabato: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Nevada governor race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. source
Brian Tyler Cohen: Interviewed Democratic governor candidate Aaron Ford. source
Charlamagne tha God: Pressed Democratic candidate Aaron Ford on The Breakfast Club for citing Trump as his reason to run and demanded his own vision for Nevada. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Ford | Lombardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 45.9 | 49.7 |
| Women | 51% | 52.6 | 43.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 50.0 | 45.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 24% | 47.9 | 47.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 48.6 | 47.0 |
| 65+ | 31% | 50.9 | 44.7 |
| RaceWhite | 58% | 37.2 | 58.4 |
| Black | 10% | 79.1 | 16.9 |
| Latino | 19% | 57.0 | 38.8 |
| Asian and other | 14% | 68.3 | 26.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 27% | 30.7 | 64.9 |
| White women | 31% | 42.8 | 52.7 |
| Black men | 5% | 75.5 | 20.5 |
| Black women | 5% | 82.6 | 13.5 |
| Latino men | 10% | 54.3 | 41.4 |
| Latino women | 9% | 59.8 | 36.0 |
| All other races | 14% | 68.3 | 26.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
17 counties| County | Ford | Lombardo | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 606,704 | 571,910 | 54,218 | 1,232,832 | D +2.8 |
| Clark County | 455,372 | 359,172 | 34,824 | 849,368 | D +11.5 |
| Washoe County | 106,869 | 105,559 | 9,545 | 221,973 | D +1.0 |
| Douglas County | 9,335 | 19,583 | 1,236 | 30,154 | R +33.9 |
| Lyon County | 6,909 | 19,105 | 1,602 | 27,616 | R +44.1 |
| Carson City | 10,893 | 14,215 | 1,405 | 26,513 | R +12.3 |
| Nye County | 6,659 | 15,117 | 1,715 | 23,491 | R +35.8 |
| Elko County | 3,636 | 14,023 | 1,391 | 19,050 | R +54.4 |
| Churchill County | 2,382 | 8,268 | 716 | 11,366 | R +51.6 |
| Humboldt County | 1,364 | 5,067 | 461 | 6,892 | R +53.7 |
| White Pine County | 708 | 2,759 | 335 | 3,802 | R +53.4 |
| Storey County | 714 | 1,678 | 155 | 2,547 | R +37.4 |
| Lander County | 381 | 1,797 | 210 | 2,388 | R +59.0 |
| Lincoln County | 263 | 1,794 | 198 | 2,255 | R +67.4 |
| Pershing County | 455 | 1,531 | 152 | 2,138 | R +49.9 |
| Mineral County | 640 | 1,208 | 165 | 2,013 | R +27.6 |
| Eureka County | 65 | 698 | 70 | 833 | R +75.1 |
| Esmeralda County | 59 | 336 | 38 | 433 | R +60.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.