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2026 ballot measure forecast

Nebraska Initiative Measure 442

Sex-separate school and college sports teams

Adds to the constitution a requirement that public K-12 schools, colleges and private schools that compete with them designate teams as male, female or coed and bar males from female teams, making part of a 2025 law permanent. The forecast has Yes at 65.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
94%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.5%
80% range 53 to 76
Needs
50%
a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
65.5% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
65.5% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election. A Nebraska Supreme Court challenge was argued Sept 30, 2026; the state says any reversal must come by Oct 27.
The campaign

Yes: Fairness for Girls campaign, record of about 211K signatures. No: legal challenge by Lincoln voter Cara Ullman; no funded No campaign reported.

Also on the Nebraska ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1
Allow three consecutive legislative terms
97%
Initiative Measure 440
Legalize online sports betting through racetracks
22%
Initiative Measure 441
Regulate online sports betting
28%

Initiative Measure 442 by county

Adams CountyAntelope CountyArthur CountyBanner CountyBlaine CountyBoone CountyBox Butte CountyBoyd CountyBrown CountyBuffalo CountyBurt CountyButler CountyCass CountyCedar CountyChase CountyCherry CountyCheyenne CountyClay CountyColfax CountyCuming CountyCuster CountyDakota CountyDawes CountyDawson CountyDeuel CountyDixon CountyDodge CountyDouglas CountyDundy CountyFillmore CountyFranklin CountyFrontier CountyFurnas CountyGage CountyGarden CountyGarfield CountyGosper CountyGrant CountyGreeley CountyHall CountyHamilton CountyHarlan CountyHayes CountyHitchcock CountyHolt CountyHooker CountyHoward CountyJefferson CountyJohnson CountyKearney CountyKeith CountyKeya Paha CountyKimball CountyKnox CountyLancaster CountyLincoln CountyLogan CountyLoup CountyMcPherson CountyMadison CountyMerrick CountyMorrill CountyNance CountyNemaha CountyNuckolls CountyOtoe CountyPawnee CountyPerkins CountyPhelps CountyPierce CountyPlatte CountyPolk CountyRed Willow CountyRichardson CountyRock CountySaline CountySarpy CountySaunders CountyScotts Bluff CountySeward CountySheridan CountySherman CountySioux CountyStanton CountyThayer CountyThomas CountyThurston CountyValley CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWheeler CountyYork CountyDouglasLancasterSarpyBuffaloHallLincolnDodgeMadisonPlatteCassScotts BluffAdams
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Douglas County: Yes +65,168Lancaster County: Yes +38,188Sarpy County: Yes +22,448Buffalo County: Yes +5,506Hall County: Yes +5,379Lincoln County: Yes +4,006Dodge County: Yes +3,893Madison County: Yes +3,849Platte County: Yes +3,741Cass County: Yes +3,680Scotts Bluff County: Yes +3,546Adams County: Yes +3,465Saunders County: Yes +3,109Washington County: Yes +2,886Gage County: Yes +2,642Seward County: Yes +2,201Dawson County: Yes +2,015Otoe County: Yes +1,918York County: Yes +1,673Dakota County: Yes +1,426Custer County: Yes +1,410Red Willow County: Yes +1,318Saline County: Yes +1,318Hamilton County: Yes +1,313Holt County: Yes +1,289Phelps County: Yes +1,203Cedar County: Yes +1,191Box Butte County: Yes +1,150Knox County: Yes +1,138Butler County: Yes +1,119Cheyenne County: Yes +1,113Merrick County: Yes +1,065Cuming County: Yes +1,063Wayne County: Yes +1,028Keith County: Yes +1,007Dawes County: Yes +995Richardson County: Yes +962Pierce County: Yes +955Burt County: Yes +890Jefferson County: Yes +871Kearney County: Yes +846Clay County: Yes +837Howard County: Yes +831Colfax County: Yes +827Antelope County: Yes +818Nemaha County: Yes +810Boone County: Yes +780Stanton County: Yes +773Cherry County: Yes +763Fillmore County: Yes +753Dixon County: Yes +704Thayer County: Yes +691Polk County: Yes +682Morrill County: Yes +609Furnas County: Yes +601Sheridan County: Yes +590Valley County: Yes +563Johnson County: Yes +538Nuckolls County: Yes +532Thurston County: Yes +499Chase County: Yes +479Harlan County: Yes +442Kimball County: Yes +428Webster County: Yes +424Nance County: Yes +420Sherman County: Yes +401Brown County: Yes +393Franklin County: Yes +387Perkins County: Yes +355Frontier County: Yes +347Hitchcock County: Yes +343Pawnee County: Yes +340Greeley County: Yes +311Garden County: Yes +274Boyd County: Yes +270Gosper County: Yes +270Garfield County: Yes +247Deuel County: Yes +244Dundy County: Yes +236Rock County: Yes +198Sioux County: Yes +163Hayes County: Yes +125Keya Paha County: Yes +120Wheeler County: Yes +108Hooker County: Yes +106Logan County: Yes +106Banner County: Yes +104Thomas County: Yes +95Loup County: Yes +93Grant County: Yes +90Arthur County: Yes +73McPherson County: Yes +71Blaine County: Yes +66
Yes +225,313 net votes from 93 countiesStatewide Yes +31.0, a 225,313 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

726,943 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes476,12865.5%
No250,81534.5%
Total726,943100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Douglas County137,71272,544210,25665.5%
Lancaster County80,69942,511123,21065.5%
Sarpy County47,43824,99072,42865.5%
Buffalo County11,6366,13017,76665.5%
Hall County11,3665,98717,35365.5%
Lincoln County8,4644,45812,92265.5%
Dodge County8,2264,33312,55965.5%
Madison County8,1334,28412,41765.5%
Platte County7,9064,16512,07165.5%
Cass County7,7784,09811,87665.5%
Scotts Bluff County7,4943,94811,44265.5%
Adams County7,3223,85711,17965.5%
Saunders County6,5703,46110,03165.5%
Washington County6,0993,2139,31265.5%
Gage County5,5832,9418,52465.5%
Seward County4,6522,4517,10365.5%
Dawson County4,2592,2446,50365.5%
Otoe County4,0542,1366,19065.5%
York County3,5351,8625,39765.5%
Dakota County3,0131,5874,60065.5%
Custer County2,9801,5704,55065.5%
Saline County2,7861,4684,25465.5%
Red Willow County2,7851,4674,25265.5%
Hamilton County2,7751,4624,23765.5%
Holt County2,7231,4344,15765.5%
Phelps County2,5411,3383,87965.5%
Cedar County2,5171,3263,84365.5%
Box Butte County2,4301,2803,71065.5%
Knox County2,4051,2673,67265.5%
Butler County2,3641,2453,60965.5%
Cheyenne County2,3521,2393,59165.5%
Merrick County2,2501,1853,43565.5%
Cuming County2,2451,1823,42765.5%
Wayne County2,1731,1453,31865.5%
Keith County2,1281,1213,24965.5%
Dawes County2,1021,1073,20965.5%
Richardson County2,0341,0723,10665.5%
Pierce County2,0181,0633,08165.5%
Burt County1,8819912,87265.5%
Jefferson County1,8419702,81165.5%
Kearney County1,7889422,73065.5%
Clay County1,7699322,70165.5%
Howard County1,7579262,68365.5%
Colfax County1,7489212,66965.5%
Antelope County1,7289102,63865.5%
Nemaha County1,7119012,61265.5%
Boone County1,6488682,51665.5%
Stanton County1,6328592,49165.5%
Cherry County1,6118482,45965.5%
Fillmore County1,5908372,42765.5%
Dixon County1,4897852,27465.5%
Thayer County1,4607692,22965.5%
Polk County1,4417592,20065.5%
Morrill County1,2876781,96565.5%
Furnas County1,2706691,93965.5%
Sheridan County1,2466561,90265.5%
Valley County1,1916281,81965.5%
Johnson County1,1386001,73865.5%
Nuckolls County1,1255931,71865.5%
Thurston County1,0555561,61165.5%
Chase County1,0135341,54765.5%
Harlan County9334911,42465.5%
Kimball County9044761,38065.5%
Webster County8974731,37065.5%
Nance County8884681,35665.5%
Sherman County8474461,29365.5%
Brown County8314381,26965.5%
Franklin County8184311,24965.5%
Perkins County7493941,14365.5%
Frontier County7333861,11965.5%
Hitchcock County7253821,10765.5%
Pawnee County7183781,09665.5%
Greeley County6583471,00565.5%
Garden County57930588465.5%
Boyd County57130187265.5%
Gosper County57130187265.5%
Garfield County52127479565.5%
Deuel County51527178665.5%
Dundy County49826276065.5%
Rock County41822063865.5%
Sioux County34418152565.5%
Hayes County26413940365.5%
Keya Paha County25413438865.5%
Wheeler County22812034865.5%
Logan County22511934465.4%
Hooker County22311734065.6%
Banner County22011633665.5%
Thomas County20110630765.5%
Loup County19610329965.6%
Grant County19010029065.5%
Arthur County1548123565.5%
McPherson County1507922965.5%
Blaine County1397321265.6%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Initiative Measure 442 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, newsfromthestates.com, nebraskaexaminer.com, nebraskaexaminer.com. All measures.