2026 forecast · Kansas Governor
Cindy Holscher is slightly favored to win Kansas's governorship.
Cindy Holscher vs Ty Masterson, an open seat. The model has Holscher ahead by 2.7 points, winning 66 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Lean DModel D +2.7Polls R +3.0Updated October 22, 2026
Cindy Holscher
Democrat
50.3%
578,266 projected votes
Ty Masterson
Republican
47.6%
546,924 projected votes
66%Holscher
34%Masterson
Holscher favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Holscher wins about 66 of 100
RatingLean D66% chance for Holscher
Model marginD +2.7Polls R +3.0
80 percent rangeD +10.9 to R +5.72,000 simulations
Projected votes1,150,031Holscher 50.3%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Holscher +164,324 net votes from 8 countiesStatewide D +3.2, a 36,447 vote marginMasterson +127,877 net votes from 97 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Cindy HolscherDemocrat · 66% to win
3040506070
50.3%
Ty MastersonRepublican · 34% to win
3040506070
47.6%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,150,031 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Cindy Holscher D | 578,266 | 50.3% |
| Ty Masterson R | 546,924 | 47.6% |
| Other / write-in O | 24,841 | 2.2% |
| Total | 1,150,031 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.9 and R +5.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
New York Times/Siena CollegeSep 30 · 605 LV · Gold18%Masterson +5.0
Emerson College / NexstarSep 16 · 750 LV · Gold17%Masterson +7.0
YouGovOct 4 · 2,255 LV · C17%Masterson +3.0
co/efficient (R)Sep 10 · 915 LV · C+16%Masterson +8.0
On Point PollingOct 21 · 479 LV · Gold16%Masterson +6.5
Global Strategy Group (D)Sep 16 · 800 LV · A-9.6%Holscher +3.0
Every other poll together: 5.7%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +3.0 | |
| On Point Polling | 479 LV | 0d | R +6.5 |
| YouGov | 2,255 LV | 11d | R +3.8 |
| New York Times/Siena College | 605 LV | 15d | R +5.7 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 750 LV | 29d | R +6.2 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 29d | D +0.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 915 LV | 35d | R +4.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 600 LV | 60d | R +1.5 |
Model margin
Holscher +2.7
Chance of winning
Cindy Holscher66%
Ty Masterson34%
Simulated vote
Cindy Holscher50.3%
Ty Masterson47.6%
Other / write-in2.2%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +16.4
FundamentalsD +1.8
With pollsR +0.8
Early vote turnoutD +3.5
With early voteD +2.7
Read from 55,481 ballots cast so far in Kansas, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
29 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Cindy Holscher19
- John CarlinFormer Governor of Kansassource
- Laura KellyGovernor of Kansassource
- Kathleen SebeliusFormer Governor of Kansas, former HHS Secretarysource
- Lynn RogersFormer Kansas state treasurersource
- Kansas AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Kansas NEA PACTeachers unionsource
- American Federation of TeachersTeachers unionsource
- American Federation of Government EmployeesFederal workers unionsource
Ty Masterson10
- Donald Trumpsource
- Roger MarshallU.S. Senator, Kansassource
- Jeff ColyerFormer Governor of Kansassource
- Kansans for Life PACAnti abortion PACsource
- Kansas Farm Bureau PACFarm groupsource
- Kansas Grain and Feed AssociationAg trade groupsource
- SMART (Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers)Unionsource
- IBEW Local 124Electrical workers unionsource
On the air
Logan Phillips: On Breaking Points he said Democrats have a shot in the Kansas governor race with a two to three point polling gap and that the Senate race is getting very uncomfortable for Roger Marshall. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Holscher | Masterson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 44.4 | 53.4 |
| Women | 53% | 53.1 | 44.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 54.3 | 43.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 48.4 | 49.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 47.0 | 50.8 |
| 65+ | 33% | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| RaceWhite | 83% | 43.9 | 54.0 |
| Black | 5% | 87.1 | 10.9 |
| Latino | 7% | 62.8 | 35.0 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 74.5 | 23.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 38.1 | 59.8 |
| White women | 44% | 48.9 | 48.9 |
| Black men | 2% | 84.9 | 13.1 |
| Black women | 3% | 89.1 | 9.0 |
| Latino men | 4% | 60.7 | 37.0 |
| Latino women | 3% | 65.0 | 32.9 |
| All other races | 6% | 74.5 | 23.1 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
105 counties| County | Holscher | Masterson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 580,870 | 544,423 | 24,738 | 1,150,031 | D +3.2 |
| Johnson County | 180,045 | 105,483 | 4,643 | 290,171 | D +25.7 |
| Sedgwick County | 95,786 | 85,091 | 4,069 | 184,946 | D +5.9 |
| Shawnee County | 43,655 | 27,266 | 1,373 | 72,294 | D +22.6 |
| Douglas County | 41,667 | 10,410 | 740 | 52,817 | D +59.1 |
| Wyandotte County | 33,212 | 10,391 | 845 | 44,448 | D +51.3 |
| Leavenworth County | 14,595 | 16,279 | 695 | 31,569 | R +5.3 |
| Butler County | 9,902 | 16,902 | 659 | 27,463 | R +25.4 |
| Riley County | 14,649 | 8,292 | 540 | 23,481 | D +27.0 |
| Reno County | 9,332 | 13,437 | 632 | 23,401 | R +17.4 |
| Saline County | 8,623 | 11,174 | 508 | 20,305 | R +12.6 |
| Miami County | 5,683 | 9,362 | 322 | 15,367 | R +23.9 |
| Crawford County | 6,665 | 7,224 | 269 | 14,158 | R +4.0 |
| Harvey County | 6,491 | 7,333 | 326 | 14,150 | R +6.0 |
| McPherson County | 4,182 | 7,989 | 287 | 12,458 | R +30.5 |
| Cowley County | 4,475 | 7,367 | 316 | 12,158 | R +23.8 |
| Ellis County | 5,104 | 6,603 | 276 | 11,983 | R +12.4 |
| Lyon County | 6,469 | 4,757 | 299 | 11,525 | D +14.9 |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,857 | 7,301 | 333 | 11,491 | R +30.1 |
| Montgomery County | 3,199 | 7,720 | 222 | 11,141 | R +40.5 |
| Franklin County | 4,554 | 5,928 | 258 | 10,740 | R +12.8 |
| Barton County | 2,736 | 6,221 | 287 | 9,244 | R +37.6 |
| Finney County | 3,860 | 4,973 | 311 | 9,144 | R +12.2 |
| Sumner County | 3,063 | 5,658 | 270 | 8,991 | R +28.9 |
| Geary County | 4,352 | 3,821 | 226 | 8,399 | D +6.3 |
| Jefferson County | 3,527 | 4,618 | 209 | 8,354 | R +13.1 |
| Dickinson County | 2,219 | 5,376 | 211 | 7,806 | R +40.5 |
| Ford County | 3,011 | 4,228 | 223 | 7,462 | R +16.3 |
| Cherokee County | 2,294 | 4,993 | 134 | 7,421 | R +36.4 |
| Labette County | 2,736 | 4,084 | 125 | 6,945 | R +19.4 |
| Osage County | 2,533 | 4,084 | 204 | 6,821 | R +22.8 |
| Atchison County | 2,318 | 3,765 | 181 | 6,264 | R +23.1 |
| Neosho County | 2,006 | 3,735 | 135 | 5,876 | R +29.5 |
| Bourbon County | 1,522 | 3,970 | 130 | 5,622 | R +43.5 |
| Jackson County | 2,236 | 3,128 | 194 | 5,558 | R +16.0 |
| Marion County | 1,581 | 3,490 | 136 | 5,207 | R +36.6 |
| Nemaha County | 1,222 | 3,467 | 180 | 4,869 | R +46.1 |
| Allen County | 1,623 | 3,049 | 100 | 4,772 | R +29.9 |
| Marshall County | 1,422 | 2,697 | 140 | 4,259 | R +29.9 |
| Linn County | 1,034 | 3,103 | 98 | 4,235 | R +48.8 |
| Seward County | 1,610 | 2,286 | 104 | 4,000 | R +16.9 |
| Coffey County | 1,037 | 2,603 | 112 | 3,752 | R +41.8 |
| Brown County | 1,329 | 2,191 | 162 | 3,682 | R +23.4 |
| Clay County | 1,087 | 2,407 | 104 | 3,598 | R +36.8 |
| Cloud County | 1,054 | 2,413 | 89 | 3,556 | R +38.3 |
| Pratt County | 1,143 | 2,320 | 88 | 3,551 | R +33.0 |
| Rice County | 991 | 2,345 | 139 | 3,475 | R +39.0 |
| Wabaunsee County | 1,146 | 2,162 | 116 | 3,424 | R +29.6 |
| Wilson County | 779 | 2,528 | 67 | 3,374 | R +51.8 |
| Kingman County | 1,084 | 2,198 | 91 | 3,373 | R +33.0 |
| Thomas County | 814 | 2,341 | 88 | 3,243 | R +47.1 |
| Anderson County | 839 | 2,298 | 91 | 3,228 | R +45.2 |
| Doniphan County | 709 | 2,262 | 98 | 3,069 | R +50.6 |
| Russell County | 821 | 2,010 | 91 | 2,922 | R +40.7 |
| Mitchell County | 729 | 1,882 | 62 | 2,673 | R +43.2 |
| Ottawa County | 666 | 1,871 | 76 | 2,613 | R +46.2 |
| Greenwood County | 729 | 1,735 | 71 | 2,535 | R +39.7 |
| Ellsworth County | 848 | 1,570 | 75 | 2,493 | R +29.0 |
| Morris County | 958 | 1,404 | 71 | 2,433 | R +18.3 |
| Washington County | 490 | 1,863 | 65 | 2,418 | R +56.8 |
| Pawnee County | 839 | 1,502 | 75 | 2,416 | R +27.3 |
| Phillips County | 404 | 1,893 | 59 | 2,356 | R +63.2 |
| Sherman County | 516 | 1,714 | 57 | 2,287 | R +52.4 |
| Rooks County | 472 | 1,712 | 58 | 2,242 | R +55.0 |
| Harper County | 526 | 1,609 | 63 | 2,198 | R +49.4 |
| Republic County | 502 | 1,567 | 53 | 2,122 | R +50.1 |
| Norton County | 471 | 1,519 | 55 | 2,045 | R +51.1 |
| Gray County | 414 | 1,458 | 66 | 1,938 | R +53.8 |
| Grant County | 511 | 1,341 | 65 | 1,917 | R +43.4 |
| Scott County | 343 | 1,511 | 63 | 1,917 | R +60.8 |
| Barber County | 484 | 1,362 | 55 | 1,901 | R +46.1 |
| Smith County | 393 | 1,316 | 43 | 1,752 | R +52.5 |
| Stafford County | 461 | 1,178 | 52 | 1,691 | R +42.3 |
| Stevens County | 295 | 1,269 | 49 | 1,613 | R +60.2 |
| Osborne County | 381 | 1,114 | 58 | 1,553 | R +47.0 |
| Meade County | 298 | 1,143 | 40 | 1,481 | R +57.4 |
| Rush County | 367 | 993 | 47 | 1,407 | R +44.7 |
| Trego County | 348 | 984 | 44 | 1,376 | R +46.1 |
| Jewell County | 267 | 1,031 | 45 | 1,343 | R +57.0 |
| Chautauqua County | 247 | 1,071 | 24 | 1,342 | R +61.1 |
| Lincoln County | 343 | 945 | 31 | 1,319 | R +45.8 |
| Woodson County | 366 | 920 | 25 | 1,311 | R +42.4 |
| Chase County | 463 | 760 | 28 | 1,251 | R +23.8 |
| Decatur County | 289 | 933 | 29 | 1,251 | R +51.3 |
| Gove County | 237 | 978 | 32 | 1,247 | R +59.5 |
| Ness County | 187 | 1,024 | 31 | 1,242 | R +67.5 |
| Rawlins County | 284 | 910 | 26 | 1,220 | R +51.4 |
| Logan County | 239 | 934 | 33 | 1,206 | R +57.7 |
| Sheridan County | 192 | 973 | 33 | 1,198 | R +65.3 |
| Cheyenne County | 230 | 908 | 24 | 1,162 | R +58.5 |
| Elk County | 275 | 851 | 31 | 1,157 | R +49.9 |
| Edwards County | 321 | 779 | 29 | 1,129 | R +40.5 |
| Kearny County | 253 | 837 | 31 | 1,121 | R +52.3 |
| Graham County | 281 | 805 | 32 | 1,118 | R +46.9 |
| Haskell County | 259 | 821 | 31 | 1,111 | R +50.7 |
| Kiowa County | 224 | 747 | 30 | 1,001 | R +52.3 |
| Morton County | 191 | 700 | 24 | 915 | R +55.7 |
| Clark County | 209 | 656 | 40 | 905 | R +49.2 |
| Hodgeman County | 182 | 634 | 23 | 839 | R +53.7 |
| Comanche County | 182 | 573 | 25 | 780 | R +50.3 |
| Wichita County | 142 | 602 | 18 | 762 | R +60.4 |
| Lane County | 154 | 539 | 23 | 716 | R +53.4 |
| Wallace County | 75 | 601 | 17 | 693 | R +75.5 |
| Hamilton County | 189 | 464 | 22 | 675 | R +40.6 |
| Stanton County | 151 | 415 | 16 | 582 | R +45.6 |
| Greeley County | 110 | 369 | 17 | 496 | R +52.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.