# On Point Politics > On Point Politics publishes the 2026 midterm election forecast, daily polling averages and live election night results for the United States: the Senate, the House, all 36 governor races, statewide down ballot offices, every partisan state legislative chamber and every statewide ballot measure. Polling and research come from On Point Polling, the polling arm behind the site. Forecast updated October 22, 2026. Election day is November 3, 2026, 12 days after this update. Every forecast number below comes from 2,000 correlated simulations of the election. ## The 2026 forecast right now * Senate: Democrats win control in 83% of simulations and Republicans in 17%. Average outcome 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast?office=senate * House: Democrats win control in 92% of simulations and Republicans in 8%. Average outcome 244 Democratic seats to 191 Republican; 218 is a majority. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast?office=house * Governors: Democrats average 28 of 50 governorships after the election and win a majority of them in 89% of simulations. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast?office=governor * State legislatures: 87 partisan chambers and 6,143 seats are on the ballot. Democrats are favored to control 44 chambers and Republicans 43. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures * Ballot measures: 146 statewide measures in 39 states; 120 are favored to pass. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures * Generic congressional ballot average: Democrats 51.6%, Republicans 42.1% as of October 19, 2026, from 332 polls. https://onpointpolitics.us/polls/generic-ballot * Donald Trump job approval average: 37.9% approve, 59.0% disapprove as of October 19, 2026, from 679 polls. https://onpointpolitics.us/polls/approval ## Closest Senate races * South Carolina Senate: Annie Andrews, Democrat, 56% to win against Darline Graham; projected margin D +1.3. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/sc/senate * Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola, Democrat, 62% to win against Dan S. Sullivan; projected margin D +1.7. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ak/senate * Texas Senate: James Talarico, Democrat, 65% to win against Ken Paxton; projected margin D +1.9. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/tx/senate * Iowa Senate: Josh Turek, Democrat, 65% to win against Ashley Hinson; projected margin D +2.4. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ia/senate * Kansas Senate: Adam Hamilton, Democrat, 67% to win against Roger Marshall; projected margin D +2.8. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ks/senate * Maine Senate: Troy Jackson, Democrat, 68% to win against Susan Collins; projected margin D +2.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/me/senate * Nebraska Senate: Dan Osborn, independent, 71% to win against Pete Ricketts; projected margin I +3.2. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ne/senate * Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed, Democrat, 72% to win against Mike Rogers; projected margin D +3.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/mi/senate * Ohio Senate special: Sherrod Brown, Democrat, 79% to win against Jon Husted; projected margin D +3.8. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/oh/senate * Mississippi Senate: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Republican, 80% to win against Scott Colom; projected margin R +5.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ms/senate * Florida Senate: Ashley Moody, Republican, 85% to win against Angie Nixon; projected margin R +5.8. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/fl/senate * Arkansas Senate: Tom Cotton, Republican, 94% to win against Hallie Shoffner; projected margin R +9.5. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ar/senate ## Closest governor races * Georgia governor: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Democrat, 56% to win against Rick Jackson; projected margin D +0.6. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ga/governor * Nebraska governor: Jim Pillen, Republican, 59% to win against Lynne Walz; projected margin R +1.3. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ne/governor * Kansas governor: Cindy Holscher, Democrat, 66% to win against Ty Masterson; projected margin D +2.7. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ks/governor * Wisconsin governor: David Crowley, Democrat, 68% to win against Tom Tiffany; projected margin D +2.8. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/wi/governor * Nevada governor: Aaron Ford, Democrat, 70% to win against Joe Lombardo; projected margin D +3.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/nv/governor * Texas governor: Greg Abbott, Republican, 71% to win against Gina Hinojosa; projected margin R +2.4. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/tx/governor * Ohio governor: Amy Acton, Democrat, 78% to win against Vivek Ramaswamy; projected margin D +4.2. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/oh/governor * Florida governor: Byron Donalds, Republican, 82% to win against David Jolly; projected margin R +5.2. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/fl/governor * South Carolina governor: Alan Wilson, Republican, 87% to win against Jermaine Johnson; projected margin R +7.8. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/sc/governor * Vermont governor: Phil Scott, Republican, 90% to win against Amanda Janoo; projected margin R +8.2. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/vt/governor ## Closest House races * Montana 1st District: Sam Forstag, Democrat, 50% to win against Aaron Flint; projected margin D +0.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/mt/house-1 * Minnesota 1st District: Brad Finstad, Republican, 51% to win against Jake Johnson; projected margin R +0.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/mn/house-1 * Arkansas 2nd District: French Hill, Republican, 51% to win against Chris Jones; projected margin R +0.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ar/house-2 * Virginia 1st District: Rob Wittman, Republican, 51% to win against Shannon Taylor; projected margin R +0.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/va/house-1 * Michigan 10th District: Michael Bouchard, Republican, 52% to win against Christina Hines; projected margin R +0.3. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/mi/house-10 * Missouri 2nd District: Fred Wellman, Democrat, 52% to win against Ann Wagner; projected margin D +0.2. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/mo/house-2 * Texas 35th District: Johnny Garcia, Democrat, 52% to win against Carlos De La Cruz; projected margin D +0.4. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/tx/house-35 * Pennsylvania 10th District: Janelle Stelson, Democrat, 53% to win against Scott Perry; projected margin D +0.3. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/pa/house-10 * Ohio 9th District: Marcy Kaptur, Democrat, 53% to win against Derek Merrin; projected margin D +0.6. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/oh/house-9 * Iowa 2nd District: Lindsay James, Democrat, 54% to win against Joe Mitchell; projected margin D +0.6. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ia/house-2 * Kansas 2nd District: Don Coover, Democrat, 56% to win against Derek Schmidt; projected margin D +0.9. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ks/house-2 * Arizona 8th District: Abraham Hamadeh, Republican, 56% to win against Bernadette Greene-Placentia; projected margin R +1.0. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/az/house-8 * New York 1st District: Nick LaLota, Republican, 57% to win against Chris Gallant; projected margin R +1.1. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/ny/house-1 * Maine 2nd District: Matt Dunlap, Democrat, 57% to win against Paul LePage; projected margin D +1.2. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/me/house-2 * Florida 22nd District: Casey Askar, Republican, 58% to win against Pia Dandiya; projected margin R +1.5. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/fl/house-22 ## State legislative chambers in play * North Carolina House: Democrats 47% to control, Republicans 44%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures/nc/house * Arizona House: Democrats 63% to control, Republicans 18%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures/az/house * Georgia House: Democrats 31% to control, Republicans 61%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures/ga/house * Wisconsin Assembly: Democrats 70% to control, Republicans 30%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures/wi/house * Alaska House: Democrats 80% to control, Republicans 7%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures/ak/house * Texas House: Democrats 19% to control, Republicans 77%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures/tx/house * North Carolina Senate: Democrats 14% to control, Republicans 74%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures/nc/senate ## Closest ballot measures * California Proposition 40, One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax: 50% chance to pass, Yes projected at 49.8%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/ca/proposition-40 * Colorado Proposition 136, Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent: 51% chance to pass, Yes projected at 50.0%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/co/proposition-136 * Idaho Advisory Question, Advisory vote on official state gun: 49% chance to pass, Yes projected at 50.0%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/id/advisory-question * Montana CI-133, Protect initiative and referendum rights: 49% chance to pass, Yes projected at 49.5%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/mt/ci-133 * Missouri Proposition A, Keep 2025 Republican-drawn congressional map: 44% chance to pass, Yes projected at 49.0%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/mo/proposition-a * South Dakota Constitutional Amendment L, Require 60% to pass constitutional amendments: 56% chance to pass, Yes projected at 51.4%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/sd/constitutional-amendment-l * Colorado Proposition 135, Ban gender transition surgeries for minors: 57% chance to pass, Yes projected at 52.1%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/co/proposition-135 * California Proposition 5, Recall: remove successor election: 42% chance to pass, Yes projected at 48.9%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/ca/proposition-5 * Missouri Amendment 3, Repeal 2024 abortion rights amendment, restrict abortion: 42% chance to pass, Yes projected at 48.5%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/mo/amendment-3 * Colorado Proposition 134, School sports teams by biological sex: 58% chance to pass, Yes projected at 52.1%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/co/proposition-134 * Montana CI-132, Keep judicial elections nonpartisan: 60% chance to pass, Yes projected at 51.6%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/mt/ci-132 * Massachusetts Question 3, Single all-party primary, top two advance: 60% chance to pass, Yes projected at 51.2%. https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures/ma/question-3 ## Main pages * 2026 forecast hub, every forecast on one board: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast * Swingometer, shift any group of voters and watch every race and chamber move: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/swingometer * Statewide offices forecast, attorney general, secretary of state and more: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/statewide * State legislative forecast, every chamber and district: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/legislatures * Ballot measure forecast: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures * Forecast methodology: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/methodology * Forecast changelog: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/changelog * Polling averages, every race and question: https://onpointpolitics.us/polls * Senate polling averages: https://onpointpolitics.us/polls/senate * Governor polling averages: https://onpointpolitics.us/polls/governor * Generic ballot average: https://onpointpolitics.us/polls/generic-ballot * Trump approval average: https://onpointpolitics.us/polls/approval * Early vote tracker, with each state against its 2022 and 2024 pace on the same day before the election: https://onpointpolitics.us/maps/early-vote * Ballot measures map, every 2026 statewide question by county with projected Yes and No votes: https://onpointpolitics.us/maps/ballot-measures * Electoral map builder: https://onpointpolitics.us/maps/electoral * Live election results: https://onpointpolitics.us/results * On Point Polling Texas poll, October 17 to 18, 2026, Talarico 48.8 Paxton 43.0 for Senate, Abbott 47.7 Hinojosa 45.2 for governor and French 45.1 Rosenthal 39.8 for Railroad Commissioner among likely voters, 661 registered voters: https://onpointpolitics.us/on-point-polling/polls/texas-2026 * On Point Polling Ohio poll, October 2026, Brown 46.6 Husted 42.3 for Senate and Acton 47.9 Ramaswamy 43.1 for governor among 635 likely voters: https://onpointpolitics.us/on-point-polling/polls/ohio-2026 * On Point Polling poll releases: https://onpointpolitics.us/on-point-polling/polls * On Point Polling methodology: https://onpointpolitics.us/on-point-polling/methodology * About On Point Polling: https://onpointpolitics.us/on-point-polling ## Data that can be cited * Forecast model output, every Senate, House and governor race: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/model.json * Statewide down ballot forecast: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/downballot.json * State legislative forecast: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/statehouse.json * Ballot measure forecast: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/measures.json * Every polling average as JSON, with an index of ids: https://onpointpolitics.us/api/polls/index * Sitemap of every page: https://onpointpolitics.us/sitemap.xml * Every race, chamber, measure and average in one file: https://onpointpolitics.us/llms-full.txt ## How the forecast works, in brief * Every Senate, governor and House race is rebuilt county by county from three legs: fundamentals built from presidential approval and the national environment, each county's certified 2024 result moved to the 2026 environment, and each county's own voting history set to the polling average. * Polls are averaged by sample size, age, voter screen and pollster grade; races with 8 or more polls use a LOWESS trend. The polling leg gains weight with more independent pollsters and as Election Day nears. * Candidate effects include each incumbent's measured personal vote and party unity read from the 2026 primaries. * 2,000 simulations share a national shock, demographic shocks, state shocks and county shocks, so related races move together. Chamber odds are the share of simulations each party wins. Full detail: https://onpointpolitics.us/forecast/methodology * State legislative districts start from their 2024 presidential vote, move with the state House forecast and the generic ballot, and use district and statewide legislative polls. * Ballot measures start from how similar measures fared in 2018, 2022 and 2024, adjusted for the state, the subject and the measure type, then blended with public polls. ## How to cite * Cite as: On Point Politics 2026 forecast, updated October 22, 2026, with the race page URL. * Polling averages: On Point Politics polling average, with the date and the average page URL. * Win chances are probabilities from simulations, not vote share predictions. A 70% favorite loses about three times in ten.