2026 forecast · Florida Treasurer
Blaise Ingoglia is favored to win Florida's treasurer race.
Annette Taddeo vs Blaise Ingoglia, with Blaise Ingoglia running again. The model has Ingoglia ahead by 3.0 points, with a 71 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +3.0Polls R +1.8Updated October 22, 2026
Annette Taddeo
Democrat
48.0%
4,288,270 projected votes
Blaise Ingoglia
Republican
51.0%
4,558,933 projected votes
71%Ingoglia
29%Taddeo
Ingoglia favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Ingoglia wins about 71 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Taddeo +785,325 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide R +3.0, a 270,663 vote marginIngoglia +1,055,988 net votes from 55 counties
Projected statewide vote
8,936,569 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Blaise Ingoglia R | 4,558,933 | 51.0% |
| Annette Taddeo D | 4,288,270 | 48.0% |
| Other candidates | 89,365 | 1.0% |
| Total | 8,936,569 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Taddeo | Ingoglia | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,288,271 | 4,558,934 | 89,365 | 8,936,570 | R +3.0 |
| Miami-Dade County | 451,580 | 374,310 | 8,342 | 834,232 | D +9.3 |
| Broward County | 477,068 | 223,738 | 7,080 | 707,886 | D +35.8 |
| Palm Beach County | 351,991 | 261,969 | 6,202 | 620,162 | D +14.5 |
| Hillsborough County | 304,025 | 251,889 | 5,616 | 561,530 | D +9.3 |
| Orange County | 312,871 | 180,097 | 4,980 | 497,948 | D +26.7 |
| Pinellas County | 238,758 | 211,019 | 4,543 | 454,320 | D +6.1 |
| Duval County | 213,926 | 178,144 | 3,960 | 396,030 | D +9.0 |
| Lee County | 120,726 | 200,087 | 3,241 | 324,054 | R +24.5 |
| Brevard County | 124,961 | 170,601 | 2,986 | 298,548 | R +15.3 |
| Polk County | 116,237 | 158,625 | 2,776 | 277,638 | R +15.3 |
| Volusia County | 109,024 | 144,782 | 2,564 | 256,370 | R +13.9 |
| Pasco County | 102,155 | 151,140 | 2,559 | 255,854 | R +19.1 |
| Sarasota County | 105,752 | 129,412 | 2,376 | 237,540 | R +10.0 |
| Seminole County | 108,060 | 97,708 | 2,078 | 207,846 | D +5.0 |
| Manatee County | 79,001 | 110,941 | 1,919 | 191,861 | R +16.6 |
| Lake County | 70,438 | 110,277 | 1,825 | 182,540 | R +21.8 |
| Collier County | 61,695 | 118,272 | 1,817 | 181,784 | R +31.1 |
| Marion County | 62,439 | 111,808 | 1,761 | 176,008 | R +28.1 |
| St. Johns County | 57,173 | 99,718 | 1,585 | 158,476 | R +26.9 |
| St. Lucie County | 69,676 | 74,875 | 1,460 | 146,011 | R +3.6 |
| Leon County | 90,953 | 45,670 | 1,379 | 138,002 | D +32.8 |
| Escambia County | 57,893 | 76,334 | 1,355 | 135,582 | R +13.6 |
| Osceola County | 70,607 | 57,022 | 1,289 | 128,918 | D +10.5 |
| Alachua County | 77,345 | 38,897 | 1,174 | 117,416 | D +32.7 |
| Charlotte County | 35,549 | 66,213 | 1,028 | 102,790 | R +29.8 |
| Clay County | 31,753 | 69,138 | 1,019 | 101,910 | R +36.7 |
| Sumter County | 28,657 | 63,667 | 932 | 93,256 | R +37.5 |
| Okaloosa County | 27,199 | 64,419 | 926 | 92,544 | R +40.2 |
| Hernando County | 31,064 | 58,189 | 901 | 90,154 | R +30.1 |
| Santa Rosa County | 21,981 | 65,392 | 883 | 88,256 | R +49.2 |
| Indian River County | 32,253 | 51,093 | 841 | 84,187 | R +22.4 |
| Martin County | 30,975 | 51,653 | 834 | 83,462 | R +24.8 |
| Citrus County | 24,022 | 57,643 | 825 | 82,490 | R +40.8 |
| Bay County | 21,021 | 57,041 | 789 | 78,851 | R +45.7 |
| Flagler County | 24,737 | 39,898 | 653 | 65,288 | R +23.2 |
| Nassau County | 14,270 | 37,125 | 519 | 51,914 | R +44.0 |
| Highlands County | 13,678 | 30,085 | 441 | 44,204 | R +37.1 |
| Walton County | 8,805 | 30,547 | 398 | 39,750 | R +54.7 |
| Monroe County | 17,578 | 19,323 | 373 | 37,274 | R +4.7 |
| Putnam County | 8,774 | 21,100 | 302 | 30,176 | R +40.9 |
| Columbia County | 7,435 | 20,019 | 277 | 27,731 | R +45.4 |
| Levy County | 5,245 | 14,562 | 201 | 20,008 | R +46.6 |
| Gadsden County | 13,955 | 5,351 | 195 | 19,501 | D +44.1 |
| Jackson County | 5,876 | 12,888 | 189 | 18,953 | R +37.0 |
| Suwannee County | 3,882 | 14,299 | 183 | 18,364 | R +56.7 |
| Wakulla County | 5,298 | 11,065 | 165 | 16,528 | R +34.9 |
| Okeechobee County | 3,328 | 9,694 | 131 | 13,153 | R +48.4 |
| Baker County | 1,817 | 10,291 | 122 | 12,230 | R +69.3 |
| Bradford County | 2,759 | 8,722 | 116 | 11,597 | R +51.4 |
| DeSoto County | 3,279 | 7,189 | 106 | 10,574 | R +37.0 |
| Hendry County | 3,411 | 6,976 | 105 | 10,492 | R +34.0 |
| Washington County | 2,012 | 8,333 | 105 | 10,450 | R +60.5 |
| Gilchrist County | 1,407 | 7,205 | 87 | 8,699 | R +66.7 |
| Taylor County | 2,055 | 6,435 | 86 | 8,576 | R +51.1 |
| Madison County | 3,133 | 4,628 | 79 | 7,840 | R +19.1 |
| Holmes County | 870 | 6,790 | 78 | 7,738 | R +76.5 |
| Jefferson County | 3,521 | 3,946 | 75 | 7,542 | R +5.6 |
| Gulf County | 1,795 | 5,418 | 73 | 7,286 | R +49.7 |
| Dixie County | 1,115 | 5,747 | 68 | 6,930 | R +66.8 |
| Hardee County | 1,617 | 5,207 | 68 | 6,892 | R +52.1 |
| Franklin County | 1,880 | 3,958 | 58 | 5,896 | R +35.2 |
| Calhoun County | 1,060 | 4,341 | 55 | 5,456 | R +60.2 |
| Union County | 960 | 4,346 | 54 | 5,360 | R +63.2 |
| Hamilton County | 1,755 | 3,159 | 50 | 4,964 | R +28.3 |
| Glades County | 1,133 | 3,337 | 45 | 4,515 | R +48.8 |
| Lafayette County | 437 | 2,778 | 33 | 3,248 | R +72.1 |
| Liberty County | 566 | 2,389 | 30 | 2,985 | R +61.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.8 and R +9.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +5.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.0 |
| Blend of every leg | R +3.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +5.5 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +3.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.8 and R +9.9.
Polls of the race
5 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Taddeo | Ingoglia | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | 2026-10-07 | 42 | 44 | R +2.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank) | 853 LV | 2026-10-04 | 43 | 43 | R +0.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank) | 1,166 RV | 2026-10-04 | 38 | 40 | R +2.0 |
| SEA Polling (D) | 701 LV | 2026-09-13 | 42 | 42 | R +0.0 |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA (listed as D on Wikipedia) | 1,107 LV | 2026-09-09 | 44 | 44 | R +0.0 |