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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

Arizona Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Arizona Senate in 94% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 30 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Likely DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 30On the ballot 30Arizona HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
94%D2%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
16 to 20
Median 18 · 16 for a majority
Favored to flip
6to D0to R
After 2024: 13 D, 17 R
Environment
D +13.6
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Arizona Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats 88%District 3: Democrats 1%District 4: Democrats 90%District 5: Democrats >99%District 6: Democrats >99%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats >99%District 9: Democrats >99%District 10: Democrats 6%District 11: Democrats >99%District 12: Democrats >99%District 13: Democrats 89%District 14: Democrats 12%District 15: Democrats <1%District 16: Democrats 62%District 17: Democrats 90%District 18: Democrats >99%District 19: Democrats <1%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats >99%District 23: Democrats >99%District 24: Democrats >99%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats >99%District 27: Democrats 53%District 28: Democrats 4%District 29: Democrats 16%District 30: Democrats <1%1345679101213141516171819202122232527282930
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 18 D to 12 R
District 5: Democrats win >99%District 6: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 12: Democrats win >99%District 18: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win >99%District 4: Democrats win 90%District 17: Democrats win 90%District 13: Democrats win 89%District 2: Democrats win 88%District 16: Democrats win 62%District 27: Democrats win 53%District 29: Democrats win 16%District 14: Democrats win 12%District 10: Democrats win 6%District 28: Democrats win 4%District 3: Democrats win 1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
16 for a majority1114162125

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
27Kevin Payne 2024Kyle Clayton vs Kevin PayneR +11.4D +0.653%48,01947,43796,910Toss up
16Thomas "Tj." Shope Jr 2024Elaine Aldrete vs T.J. ShopeR +9.5D +2.062%48,41946,55796,422Toss up
29Janae Shamp 2024Eric Stafford vs Janae ShampR +18.5R +6.516%52,06259,324113,082Likely R
14Warren Petersen 2024Stephanie Walsh vs Mylie BiggsR +18.5R +7.712%54,75063,833120,389Likely R
13Jd. Mesnard 2024Kristie O'Brien vs Julie WilloughbyR +1.2D +7.989%58,76350,199110,621Likely D
2Shawnna Bolick 2024Amelia Gallitano vs Shawnna BolickR +5.6D +8.188%51,37543,68496,506Likely D
17Venden "Vince" Leach 2024Edgar Soto vs Chris KingR +3.9D +8.490%75,30263,683141,101Likely D
4Carine Werner 2024Aaron Lieberman vs Carine WernerR +3.6D +8.790%73,61161,803137,476Likely D
10David Christian Farnsworth 2024Blair Moses vs Dave Farnsworth · Nick Fierro (I)R +21.1R +10.36%47,79958,788108,210Likely R
28Frank Carroll 2024Michael Braun vs Frank CarrollR +23.3R +11.84%56,76071,889130,609Likely R

Projected Arizona Senate vote

30 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats1,681,12155.0%
Republicans1,338,35843.8%
Independents and others38,9461.3%
Total3,058,423100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

Legislative ballot polls

Weight 3%
PollsterField endDR
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP2026-07-284946
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.