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2026 ballot measure forecast

Oklahoma State Question 847

Lower annual caps on taxable property value growth

Lowers annual caps on growth in taxable value from 3% to 1.75% for homesteads and farmland and from 5% to 4% for other property, and replaces the senior freeze with income based caps, starting 2027. The forecast has Yes at 72.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureProperty taxUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
72.6%
80% range 61 to 82
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
72.6% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
72.6% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Authored by House Speaker Kyle Hilbert R, backed by Oklahoma Farm Bureau; opposed by Oklahoma Policy Institute and some Democrats over school and local revenue.

Also on the Oklahoma ballot

State Question 845
Restructure Judicial Nominating Commission
>99%

State Question 847 by county

Adair CountyAlfalfa CountyAtoka CountyBeaver CountyBeckham CountyBlaine CountyBryan CountyCaddo CountyCanadian CountyCarter CountyCherokee CountyChoctaw CountyCimarron CountyCleveland CountyCoal CountyComanche CountyCotton CountyCraig CountyCreek CountyCuster CountyDelaware CountyDewey CountyEllis CountyGarfield CountyGarvin CountyGrady CountyGrant CountyGreer CountyHarmon CountyHarper CountyHaskell CountyHughes CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyJohnston CountyKay CountyKingfisher CountyKiowa CountyLatimer CountyLe Flore CountyLincoln CountyLogan CountyLove CountyMcClain CountyMcCurtain CountyMcIntosh CountyMajor CountyMarshall CountyMayes CountyMurray CountyMuskogee CountyNoble CountyNowata CountyOkfuskee CountyOklahoma CountyOkmulgee CountyOsage CountyOttawa CountyPawnee CountyPayne CountyPittsburg CountyPontotoc CountyPottawatomie CountyPushmataha CountyRoger Mills CountyRogers CountySeminole CountySequoyah CountyStephens CountyTexas CountyTillman CountyTulsa CountyWagoner CountyWashington CountyWashita CountyWoods CountyWoodward CountyOklahomaTulsaClevelandCanadianRogersWagonerComanchePayneCreekMuskogeeLoganWashington
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Oklahoma County: Yes +85,362Tulsa County: Yes +82,286Cleveland County: Yes +38,273Canadian County: Yes +25,547Rogers County: Yes +18,383Wagoner County: Yes +14,526Creek County: Yes +12,241Comanche County: Yes +11,617Pottawatomie County: Yes +10,798Payne County: Yes +10,417Grady County: Yes +10,233Logan County: Yes +9,043Washington County: Yes +8,912Garfield County: Yes +8,758Muskogee County: Yes +8,734McClain County: Yes +8,545Stephens County: Yes +7,585Osage County: Yes +7,505Le Flore County: Yes +7,420Delaware County: Yes +7,397Carter County: Yes +7,375Pittsburg County: Yes +7,133Bryan County: Yes +6,978Mayes County: Yes +6,918Kay County: Yes +6,442Cherokee County: Yes +6,436Lincoln County: Yes +6,280Sequoyah County: Yes +6,065Pontotoc County: Yes +5,767Okmulgee County: Yes +5,282McCurtain County: Yes +4,928Garvin County: Yes +4,621Ottawa County: Yes +4,189Custer County: Yes +4,160Caddo County: Yes +3,582Beckham County: Yes +3,333Woodward County: Yes +3,321McIntosh County: Yes +3,304Jackson County: Yes +3,289Seminole County: Yes +3,113Adair County: Yes +3,010Kingfisher County: Yes +2,946Pawnee County: Yes +2,750Marshall County: Yes +2,576Atoka County: Yes +2,459Craig County: Yes +2,430Murray County: Yes +2,389Choctaw County: Yes +2,337Texas County: Yes +2,263Washita County: Yes +2,155Haskell County: Yes +2,074Pushmataha County: Yes +2,030Hughes County: Yes +2,005Noble County: Yes +1,999Nowata County: Yes +1,918Johnston County: Yes +1,752Latimer County: Yes +1,696Major County: Yes +1,681Love County: Yes +1,663Okfuskee County: Yes +1,605Blaine County: Yes +1,599Woods County: Yes +1,598Kiowa County: Yes +1,320Coal County: Yes +1,100Dewey County: Yes +1,075Alfalfa County: Yes +1,074Beaver County: Yes +1,073Cotton County: Yes +1,060Tillman County: Yes +1,015Jefferson County: Yes +980Grant County: Yes +928Ellis County: Yes +870Roger Mills County: Yes +826Greer County: Yes +799Harper County: Yes +701Cimarron County: Yes +499Harmon County: Yes +351
Yes +556,704 net votes from 77 countiesStatewide Yes +45.2, a 556,704 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

1,231,090 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes893,89772.6%
No337,19327.4%
Total1,231,090100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Oklahoma County160,33574,973235,30868.1%
Tulsa County144,35662,070206,42669.9%
Cleveland County67,24228,96996,21169.9%
Canadian County40,11714,57054,68773.4%
Rogers County27,1648,78135,94575.6%
Wagoner County21,9427,41629,35874.7%
Comanche County19,6408,02327,66371.0%
Payne County17,4447,02724,47171.3%
Creek County18,0285,78723,81575.7%
Pottawatomie County16,4615,66322,12474.4%
Grady County14,6404,40719,04776.9%
Muskogee County13,8875,15319,04072.9%
Logan County13,6924,64918,34174.7%
Washington County13,5654,65318,21874.5%
Garfield County13,0064,24817,25475.4%
McClain County12,3273,78216,10976.5%
Osage County11,7424,23715,97973.5%
Carter County10,9203,54514,46575.5%
Cherokee County10,4474,01114,45872.3%
Stephens County10,8003,21514,01577.1%
Delaware County10,6953,29813,99376.4%
Le Flore County10,5223,10213,62477.2%
Pittsburg County10,3693,23613,60576.2%
Bryan County10,1653,18713,35276.1%
Mayes County10,1113,19313,30476.0%
Kay County9,7493,30713,05674.7%
Pontotoc County8,8233,05611,87974.3%
Lincoln County8,9562,67611,63277.0%
Sequoyah County8,7282,66311,39176.6%
Okmulgee County8,2172,93511,15273.7%
McCurtain County6,8631,9358,79878.0%
Garvin County6,5181,8978,41577.5%
Ottawa County6,2322,0438,27575.3%
Custer County6,1902,0308,22075.3%
Caddo County5,4691,8877,35674.3%
McIntosh County4,9341,6306,56475.2%
Seminole County4,7031,5906,29374.7%
Jackson County4,7901,5016,29176.1%
Beckham County4,6111,2785,88978.3%
Woodward County4,5511,2305,78178.7%
Adair County4,2991,2895,58876.9%
Pawnee County3,9971,2475,24476.2%
Kingfisher County4,0521,1065,15878.6%
Marshall County3,6761,1004,77677.0%
Craig County3,5411,1114,65276.1%
Murray County3,4331,0444,47776.7%
Atoka County3,3839244,30778.5%
Choctaw County3,3069694,27577.3%
Texas County3,1628994,06177.9%
Noble County2,9239243,84776.0%
Hughes County2,8678623,72976.9%
Haskell County2,8778033,68078.2%
Washita County2,9127573,66979.4%
Pushmataha County2,7777473,52478.8%
Nowata County2,6927743,46677.7%
Johnston County2,4697173,18677.5%
Okfuskee County2,3667613,12775.7%
Latimer County2,3997033,10277.3%
Love County2,3426793,02177.5%
Blaine County2,2846852,96976.9%
Woods County2,2676692,93677.2%
Major County2,2155342,74980.6%
Kiowa County1,9246042,52876.1%
Tillman County1,4744591,93376.3%
Coal County1,5134131,92678.6%
Cotton County1,4864261,91277.7%
Alfalfa County1,4383641,80279.8%
Dewey County1,4153401,75580.6%
Jefferson County1,3453651,71078.7%
Beaver County1,3803071,68781.8%
Grant County1,2793511,63078.5%
Ellis County1,1652951,46079.8%
Greer County1,1283291,45777.4%
Roger Mills County1,0862601,34680.7%
Harper County9302291,15980.2%
Cimarron County63914077982.0%
Harmon County50515465976.6%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
State Question 847 is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Oklahoma's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: okpolicy.org, theballotbrief.com, oklahoma.gov, news9.com. All measures.