2026 forecast · Minnesota Senate

Peggy Flanagan is very likely to win Minnesota's Senate seat.

Peggy Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya, an open seat. The model has Flanagan ahead by 8.8 points, winning 95 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +8.8Polls D +4.5Updated October 22, 2026

Peggy Flanagan

Democrat

52.8%

1,478,712 projected votes

Michele Tafoya

Republican

44.0%

1,233,113 projected votes

95%Flanagan

5%Tafoya

Flanagan very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Flanagan wins about 95 of 100

RatingLikely D95% chance for Flanagan

Model marginD +8.8Polls D +4.5

80 percent rangeD +15.6 to D +2.02,000 simulations

Projected votes2,799,737Flanagan 52.8%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Minnesota Senate by county

D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Flanagan +511,887 net votes from 16 countiesStatewide D +8.7, a 244,413 vote marginTafoya +267,474 net votes from 71 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected statewide vote

2,799,737 votes

Candidate	Votes	Share
Peggy Flanagan D	1,478,712	52.8%
Michele Tafoya R	1,233,113	44.0%
Other / write-in O	87,912	3.1%
Total	2,799,737	100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.6 and D +2.0. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Minnesota Senate polling average

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

InsiderAdvantageSep 29 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, counted Flanagan +5.6 in the average16%Flanagan +1.0

Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 15 · 1,079 LV · A- · R lean, counted Flanagan +7.3 in the average16%Flanagan +3.5

Quantus InsightsSep 10 · 720 LV · Gold16%Flanagan +4.0

Big Data PollSep 30 · 622 LV · Gold15%Flanagan +2.2

GQR (D)Oct 4 · 800 LV · NR13%Flanagan +9.0

KSTP/SurveyUSAOct 12 · 650 LV · C+8.8%Flanagan +3.0

Every other poll together: 15%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
On Point average	LOWESS Election Day projection		D +4.5
Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R	1,079 LV	0d	D +3.548.1 to 44.6
KSTP/SurveyUSA	650 LV	3d	D +3.045 to 42
Mason-Dixon for the Star Tribune	800 LV	8d	D +4.047 to 43
Morning Consult	1,000 RV	8d	D +4.045 to 41
Rasmussen Reports (R)	856 LV	8d	D +3.048 to 45
GQR (D)	800 LV	11d	D +9.053 to 44
Big Data Poll	622 LV	15d	D +2.245.8 to 43.6
InsiderAdvantageLean R	1,200 LV	16d	D +1.046 to 45
co/efficient (R)	833 LV	30d	D +1.043 to 42
KSTP/SurveyUSA	654 LV	31d	Even42 to 42
Quantus Insights	720 LV	35d	D +4.048 to 44
TIPP Insights (R)	1,201 LV	43d	D +2.044 to 42
Deep Root Analytics (R)	597 RV	58d	D +5.050 to 45
KTSP/SurveyUSA	661 LV	59d	D +5.046 to 41

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin

Flanagan +8.8

Chance of winning

Peggy Flanagan95%

Michele Tafoya5%

Simulated vote

Peggy Flanagan52.8%

Michele Tafoya44.0%

Other / write-in3.1%

How the model gets there

Partisan leanD +4.3

FundamentalsD +18.5

With pollsD +8.7

Early vote turnoutD +0.1

With early voteD +8.8

Read from 202,252 ballots cast so far in Minnesota, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

52 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Peggy Flanagan43

Keith EllisonMinnesota Attorney Generalsource
Al FrankenFormer U.S. Senator from Minnesotasource
Bernie SandersU.S. Senator from Vermontsource
Hillary ClintonFormer Secretary of Statesource
Amy KlobucharU.S. Senator, 2026 DFL nominee for Governorsource
Tina SmithU.S. Senator from Minnesotasource
Elizabeth WarrenU.S. Senator from Massachusettssource
Angie CraigU.S. Representative, MN-02, former primary rivalsource

Michele Tafoya9

Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
George W. BushFormer Presidentsource
John CornynU.S. Senator from Texassource
Tim ScottU.S. Senator, NRSC chairsource
Maggie's ListPAC supporting conservative women candidatessource
Tony Dungyformer NFL head coachsource
Jason GarrettNBC Sports commentator, former NFL coachsource
Minnesota Farm Bureau PACfarm organizationsource

On the air

Karl Rove: Said he believes in Republican Michele Tafoya but would not predict a win. source

Steve Kornacki: On Today warned a tide seems to be working against Democrats in Minnesota's Flanagan vs Tafoya race. source

Rich Baris: Said Democrat Peggy Flanagan's lead had grown to four points. source

Sandra Smith: Pressed Michele Tafoya on whether a Trump campaign visit would help or hurt her. source

Larry Kudlow: Claimed Peggy Flanagan is pushing a Native American identity as cover for socialism, comparing her to Elizabeth Warren. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Flanagan	Tafoya
GenderMen	46%	47.4	49.4
Women	54%	55.9	41.0
Age18 to 29	14%	55.4	41.4
30 to 44	22%	51.6	45.2
45 to 64	32%	49.7	47.2
65+	32%	53.1	43.8
RaceWhite	85%	47.3	49.6
Black	5%	87.4	9.7
Latino	3%	67.7	29.3
Asian and other	7%	75.8	20.6
Race and genderWhite men	38%	41.6	55.3
White women	46%	52.0	44.9
Black men	2%	86.3	10.7
Black women	3%	88.3	8.8
Latino men	2%	64.9	32.1
Latino women	2%	70.4	26.5
All other races	7%	75.8	20.6

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

87 counties

County	Flanagan	Tafoya	Other	Total	Margin
Statewide	1,478,396	1,233,983	87,358	2,799,737	D +8.7
Hennepin County	460,561	168,690	18,127	647,378	D +45.2
Ramsey County	186,447	56,355	8,806	251,608	D +51.7
Dakota County	121,255	95,131	6,693	223,079	D +11.6
Anoka County	85,024	84,703	6,521	176,248	D +0.2
Washington County	73,688	66,138	3,880	143,706	D +5.3
St. Louis County	64,870	35,280	3,204	103,354	D +28.6
Olmsted County	44,609	31,561	2,275	78,445	D +16.6
Scott County	32,698	40,424	2,339	75,461	R +10.2
Stearns County	27,085	44,047	2,351	73,483	R +23.1
Wright County	23,247	46,066	2,366	71,679	R +31.9
Carver County	24,994	31,139	1,498	57,631	R +10.6
Sherburne County	14,939	30,419	1,645	47,003	R +32.9
Crow Wing County	11,289	23,250	1,068	35,607	R +33.6
Rice County	14,718	15,665	1,037	31,420	R +3.0
Blue Earth County	16,599	13,429	1,349	31,377	D +10.1
Otter Tail County	10,615	19,420	834	30,869	R +28.6
Chisago County	9,701	17,975	1,033	28,709	R +28.9
Clay County	15,224	11,187	1,043	27,454	D +14.7
Goodhue County	10,311	13,598	740	24,649	R +13.4
Winona County	11,617	11,125	898	23,640	D +2.0
Itasca County	9,582	12,705	713	23,000	R +13.6
Douglas County	5,895	14,798	531	21,224	R +42.0
Beltrami County	10,387	9,713	816	20,916	D +3.2
Isanti County	6,265	13,687	809	20,761	R +35.7
Kandiyohi County	7,172	12,162	557	19,891	R +25.1
Benton County	6,031	11,875	707	18,613	R +31.3
Steele County	6,407	10,763	641	17,811	R +24.5
McLeod County	4,799	12,315	584	17,698	R +42.5
Carlton County	9,524	7,567	528	17,619	D +11.1
Nicollet County	8,467	7,849	557	16,873	D +3.6
Morrison County	3,777	12,532	487	16,796	R +52.0
Becker County	5,574	10,355	526	16,455	R +29.0
Cass County	5,312	10,615	510	16,437	R +32.3
Mower County	7,571	7,757	605	15,933	R +1.3
Le Sueur County	4,847	9,148	462	14,457	R +29.8
Freeborn County	5,895	7,677	492	14,064	R +12.7
Pine County	4,162	9,205	485	13,852	R +36.4
Polk County	4,845	7,470	394	12,709	R +20.7
Brown County	3,802	8,348	350	12,500	R +36.4
Mille Lacs County	3,591	8,239	480	12,310	R +37.8
Todd County	2,698	8,512	323	11,533	R +50.5
Hubbard County	3,912	7,292	323	11,527	R +29.3
Meeker County	3,175	7,986	346	11,507	R +41.8
Wabasha County	3,946	7,137	331	11,414	R +27.9
Lyon County	3,857	6,828	319	11,004	R +27.0
Fillmore County	4,271	5,694	319	10,284	R +13.8
Dodge County	3,735	6,154	369	10,258	R +23.6
Houston County	4,362	4,823	343	9,528	R +4.8
Martin County	2,575	6,219	291	9,085	R +40.1
Aitkin County	3,022	5,653	241	8,916	R +29.4
Waseca County	2,994	5,594	283	8,871	R +29.3
Kanabec County	2,337	5,232	274	7,843	R +37.0
Sibley County	1,906	5,031	214	7,151	R +43.7
Roseau County	2,091	4,760	183	7,034	R +37.9
Redwood County	1,879	4,930	196	7,005	R +43.5
Nobles County	2,477	4,182	256	6,915	R +24.7
Renville County	2,023	4,513	196	6,732	R +37.0
Wadena County	1,692	4,698	190	6,580	R +45.6
Faribault County	2,126	4,208	222	6,556	R +31.8
Pennington County	2,321	3,538	237	6,096	R +20.0
Pope County	2,111	3,774	151	6,036	R +27.6
Lake County	3,412	2,428	174	6,014	D +16.3
Koochiching County	2,440	3,122	172	5,734	R +11.8
Chippewa County	1,891	3,265	165	5,321	R +25.8
Cottonwood County	1,495	3,386	151	5,032	R +37.5
Jackson County	1,446	3,238	165	4,849	R +37.0
Yellow Medicine County	1,454	3,017	124	4,595	R +34.1
Rock County	1,523	2,843	149	4,515	R +29.2
Stevens County	1,743	2,564	101	4,408	R +18.7
Swift County	1,532	2,665	107	4,304	R +26.5
Marshall County	1,256	2,915	107	4,278	R +38.8
Watonwan County	1,575	2,472	133	4,180	R +21.5
Murray County	1,234	2,738	122	4,094	R +36.8
Pipestone County	1,148	2,811	131	4,090	R +40.7
Clearwater County	1,159	2,665	114	3,938	R +38.2
Cook County	2,279	994	87	3,360	D +38.3
Lac qui Parle County	1,278	2,004	77	3,359	R +21.7
Grant County	1,109	1,871	80	3,060	R +24.9
Wilkin County	960	1,758	99	2,817	R +28.3
Norman County	1,203	1,475	86	2,764	R +10.0
Lincoln County	821	1,765	91	2,677	R +35.2
Big Stone County	915	1,508	80	2,503	R +23.8
Kittson County	895	1,138	54	2,087	R +11.5
Lake of the Woods County	583	1,330	57	1,970	R +38.0
Mahnomen County	935	861	82	1,878	D +3.8
Red Lake County	624	1,066	56	1,746	R +25.4
Traverse County	580	944	46	1,570	R +23.1

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology

Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.