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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

New Hampshire Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the New Hampshire Senate in 93% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 24 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 5 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Likely DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 24On the ballot 24New Hampshire HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
93%D3%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
13 to 21
Median 17 · 13 for a majority
Favored to flip
9to D0to R
After 2024: 8 D, 16 R
Environment
D +12.4
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

New Hampshire Senate map

District 1: Democrats 55%District 2: Democrats 57%District 3: Democrats 70%District 4: Democrats >99%District 5: Democrats >99%District 6: Democrats 31%District 7: Democrats 69%District 8: Democrats 38%District 9: Democrats 95%District 10: Democrats >99%District 11: Democrats 99%District 12: Democrats 86%District 13: Democrats >99%District 14: Democrats 45%District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats 66%District 17: Democrats 38%District 18: Democrats 93%District 19: Democrats 22%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats 3%District 23: Democrats 10%District 24: Democrats >99%123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 17 D to 7 R
District 4: Democrats win >99%District 5: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win 99%District 9: Democrats win 95%District 18: Democrats win 93%District 12: Democrats win 86%District 3: Democrats win 70%District 7: Democrats win 69%District 16: Democrats win 66%District 2: Democrats win 57%District 1: Democrats win 55%District 14: Democrats win 45%District 8: Democrats win 38%District 17: Democrats win 38%District 6: Democrats win 31%District 19: Democrats win 22%District 23: Democrats win 10%District 22: Democrats win 3%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
13 for a majority610131924

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
1David Rochefort 2024Cathleen A. Fountain vs David RochefortR +9.0D +0.855%12,87612,66725,932Toss up
14Sharon M Carson 2024Timothy Wyatt vs Sharon M. CarsonR +8.8R +1.145%13,63713,94127,998Toss up
2Timothy Lang 2024Kurt Webber vs Timothy P. Lang Sr.R +5.2D +1.257%14,51114,16729,114Toss up
8Ruth Ward 2024David Trumble vs Jim CreightonR +11.7R +2.138%12,89813,44626,745Lean R
17Howard Pearl 2024Robert Lawliss vs Howard C. PearlR +13.2R +2.238%13,80414,43428,667Lean R
16Keith Murphy 2024Dian McCarthy vs Keith MurphyR +5.4D +2.866%13,98113,22527,620Lean D
3Mark Mcconkey 2024Bobbi Boudman vs Mark E. McConkeyR +4.6D +3.170%15,76714,80431,037Lean D
7Daniel Innis 2024Rebecca Harned vs Daniel InnisR +6.9D +3.369%13,83112,96127,200Lean D
6James P Gray 2024Cecil Abels vs James P. GrayR +11.3R +3.431%12,51513,39326,303Lean R
19Regina M Birdsell 2024Michelle Moge vs Regina M. BirdsellR +13.2R +5.422%12,75914,22427,393Lean R
12Kevin A Avard 2024Carryl L. Roy vs Kevin A. AvardD +0.7D +6.686%15,62913,68929,765Likely D
23Bill Gannon 2024David Childs vs William "Bill" GannonR +16.5R +8.810%13,71116,35330,522Likely R
18Victoria Sullivan 2024Leonard Bell vs Victoria SullivanR +1.4D +10.193%11,7839,63121,740Likely D
9Denise Ricciardi 2024Matthew McLaughlin vs Denise RicciardiR +0.9D +10.295%15,08012,29127,788Likely D

Projected New Hampshire Senate vote

24 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats373,61356.5%
Republicans278,57242.1%
Independents and others9,5061.4%
Total661,692100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

Legislative ballot polls

Weight 15%
PollsterField endDR
UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll2026-09-215141
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.