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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

Iowa Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Iowa Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 25 of the 50 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 25 carry over until 2028; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 50On the ballot 25Iowa HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
17 to 20
Median 19 · 26 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D0to R
After 2024: 15 D, 35 R
Environment
D +10.4
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Iowa Senate map

District 1: Democrats 79%District 2, not up in 2026District 3: Democrats <1%District 4, not up in 2026District 5: Democrats <1%District 6, not up in 2026District 7: Democrats <1%District 8, not up in 2026District 9: Democrats <1%District 10, not up in 2026District 11: Democrats 7%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats <1%District 14, not up in 2026District 15: Democrats >99%District 16, not up in 2026District 17: Democrats >99%District 18, not up in 2026District 19: Democrats <1%District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats 94%District 22, not up in 2026District 23: Democrats 27%District 24, not up in 2026District 25: Democrats >99%District 26, not up in 2026District 27: Democrats <1%District 28, not up in 2026District 29: Democrats <1%District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats >99%District 32, not up in 2026District 33: Democrats <1%District 34, not up in 2026District 35: Democrats 8%District 36, not up in 2026District 37: Democrats >99%District 38, not up in 2026District 39: Democrats >99%District 40, not up in 2026District 41: Democrats 52%District 42, not up in 2026District 43: Democrats >99%District 44, not up in 2026District 45: Democrats >99%District 46, not up in 2026District 47: Democrats 79%District 48, not up in 2026District 49: Democrats >99%District 50, not up in 2026123456789101112131419242526272829303132333435363841424446474850
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 19 D to 32 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 15: Democrats win >99%District 17: Democrats win >99%District 25: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win >99%District 37: Democrats win >99%District 39: Democrats win >99%District 43: Democrats win >99%District 45: Democrats win >99%District 49: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win 94%District 1: Democrats win 79%District 47: Democrats win 79%District 41: Democrats win 52%District 23: Democrats win 27%District 35: Democrats win 8%District 11: Democrats win 7%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
26 for a majority121925

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
41Kerry Gruenhagen 2022Tom Wieck vs Kerry GruenhagenR +11.5D +0.452%12,85812,74825,996Toss up
23Jack Whitver 2022Tony Thompson vs Wes EnosR +16.9R +3.827%15,55416,76632,812Lean R
47Scott Webster 2022Nikhil Wagle vs Scott WebsterR +8.1D +5.179%15,61214,10030,164Lean D
1Rocky De Witt 2022Catelin Drey vs Christopher ProschR +11.6D +5.379%8,9408,03417,233Lean D
35Chris Cournoyer 2022Mike Zimmer vs Joe StuttingR +21.5R +9.48%11,87314,34626,618Likely R
21Mike Bousselot 2022Heather Matson vs John HollinrakeR +2.2D +10.194%17,49914,27732,260Likely D
11Julian B Garrett 2022Sinikka Waugh vs Hollie Arlene ZajicekR +22.4R +10.27%13,59616,66830,724Likely R

Projected Iowa Senate vote

25 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats322,91150.1%
Republicans306,40647.5%
Independents and others15,1762.4%
Total644,495100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.