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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 forecast · Alaska Senate

Mary Peltola is slightly favored to win Alaska's Senate seat.

Mary Peltola vs Dan S. Sullivan. The model has Peltola ahead by 1.7 points, winning 62 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Toss upModel D +1.7Polls D +0.8Updated October 22, 2026
Mary Peltola
Democrat
48.5%
140,634 projected votes
Dan S. Sullivan
Republican
46.1%
133,674 projected votes
62%Peltola
38%Sullivan
Peltola slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Peltola wins about 62 of 100
RatingToss up62% chance for Peltola
Model marginD +1.7Polls D +0.8
80 percent rangeD +8.5 to R +5.12,000 simulations
Projected votes290,013Peltola 48.3%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Alaska Senate by borough

Wrangell City and BoroughKusilvak Census AreaBristol Bay BoroughHoonah-Angoon Census AreaPetersburg BoroughNorthwest Arctic BoroughHaines BoroughAleutians East BoroughKodiak Island BoroughLake and Peninsula BoroughYukon-Koyukuk Census AreaSoutheast Fairbanks Census AreaPrince of Wales-Hyder Census AreaSitka City and BoroughNorth Slope BoroughBethel Census AreaFairbanks North Star BoroughDillingham Census AreaKetchikan Gateway BoroughYakutat City and BoroughJuneau City and BoroughDenali BoroughMatanuska-Susitna BoroughAnchorage MunicipalityAleutians West Census AreaKenai Peninsula BoroughNome Census AreaSkagway MunicipalityCopper River Census AreaChugach Census AreaAnchorage MunicipalityMatanuska-SusitnaFairbanks North StarKenai PeninsulaJuneau City andKetchikan GatewayKodiak IslandBethel Census AreaSitka City andSoutheast Fairbanks Census AreaNome Census AreaNorth Slope
D +40R +40Click a borough to zoom · arrow keys step through boroughs by size
Where the margin is won
Anchorage Municipality: Peltola +15,752Juneau City and Borough: Peltola +5,609Bethel Census Area: Peltola +2,235Sitka City and Borough: Peltola +1,179Kusilvak Census Area: Peltola +833Hoonah-Angoon Census Area: Peltola +808Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area: Peltola +737Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area: Peltola +716Dillingham Census Area: Peltola +646Nome Census Area: Peltola +635Haines Borough: Peltola +509Skagway Municipality: Peltola +438Northwest Arctic Borough: Peltola +350Chugach Census Area: Peltola +247Aleutians West Census Area: Peltola +195Lake and Peninsula Borough: Peltola +156Kodiak Island Borough: Peltola +129Yakutat City and Borough: Peltola +119Petersburg Borough: Peltola +77North Slope Borough: Peltola +45Denali Borough: Peltola +21Matanuska-Susitna Borough: Sullivan +14,918Kenai Peninsula Borough: Sullivan +4,559Southeast Fairbanks Census Area: Sullivan +1,398Fairbanks North Star Borough: Sullivan +805Ketchikan Gateway Borough: Sullivan +333Copper River Census Area: Sullivan +235Wrangell City and Borough: Sullivan +152Aleutians East Borough: Sullivan +84Bristol Bay Borough: Sullivan +49
Peltola +31,436 net votes from 21 boroughsStatewide D +3.1, a 8,903 vote marginSullivan +22,533 net votes from 9 boroughs

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Mary PeltolaDemocrat · 62% to win
48.5%
Dan S. SullivanRepublican · 38% to win
46.1%
Dan J. SullivanRepublican · 38% to win
3.7%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

290,013 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Mary Peltola D140,63448.5%
Dan S. Sullivan R133,67446.1%
Dan J. Sullivan R10,7783.7%
Gerald Heikes R4,9311.7%
Total290,013100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +24.8: 1 simulationsD +23.4: 1 simulationsD +22.1: 1 simulationsD +20.8: 3 simulationsD +19.5: 3 simulationsD +18.1: 0 simulationsD +16.8: 5 simulationsD +15.5: 3 simulationsD +14.2: 15 simulationsD +12.8: 16 simulationsD +11.5: 37 simulationsD +10.2: 60 simulationsD +8.9: 74 simulationsD +7.5: 101 simulationsD +6.2: 123 simulationsD +4.9: 164 simulationsD +3.6: 171 simulationsD +2.2: 210 simulationsD +0.9: 221 simulationsR +0.4: 199 simulationsR +1.7: 166 simulationsR +3.1: 127 simulationsR +4.4: 95 simulationsR +5.7: 90 simulationsR +7.0: 41 simulationsR +8.4: 27 simulationsR +9.7: 26 simulationsR +11.0: 9 simulationsR +12.3: 6 simulationsR +13.7: 1 simulationsR +15.0: 2 simulationsR +16.3: 0 simulationsR +17.6: 0 simulationsR +19.0: 1 simulationsR +20.3: 0 simulationsR +21.6: 0 simulationsR +22.9: 0 simulationsR +24.3: 0 simulationsR +25.6: 0 simulationsR +26.9: 1 simulationsD +25.4R +27.6

80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.5 and R +5.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%62% Peltola38% Sullivan30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Alaska Senate polling average
R+6R+4R+2EvenD+2D+4D+6D+8D+10MayJunJulAugSepOctPeltola +3.5
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Quantus InsightsOct 1 · 758 LV · Gold16%Sullivan +0.6
Trafalgar Group (R)Sep 24 · 1,079 LV · A- · R lean, 3.8 off16%Peltola +2.5
InsiderAdvantageOct 10 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off16%Peltola +6.5
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchSep 11 · 800 LV · B16%Peltola +6.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold13%Peltola +7.0
co/efficient (R)Sep 17 · 799 LV · C+13%Sullivan +3.0
Every other poll together: 11%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +0.8
Public Policy Polling (D)578 RV0dR +0.3
Rasmussen Reports (R)775 LV0dD +1.8
Data for Progress (D)694 LV0dD +0.8
InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV5dD +2.1
Alaska Survey Research1,512 LV12dD +0.6
New York Times/Siena504 LV14dD +6.3
Quantus Insights758 LV14dD +1.1
Trafalgar Group (R)1,079 LV21dR +0.8
co/efficient (R)799 LV28dD +1.1
Rasmussen Reports (R)1,188 LV31dR +1.6
Alaska Survey Research1,352 LV33dD +4.3
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research800 LV34dD +5.4
Alaska Survey Research1,495 LV53dD +2.3
Alaska Survey Research1,371 LV71dD +2.3
Data for Progress (D)578 LV72dD +2.8
New York Times/Siena University593 LV108dR +3.1
Alaska Survey Research1,393 LV130dD +3.8
Alaska Survey Research1,401 LV151dD +2.5
Alaska Survey Research1,946 LV179dD +4.5
Alaska Survey Research1,590 LV207dD +3.8
Public Policy Polling (D)611 RV271dD +0.7
Alaska Survey Research1,988 LV277dD +2.3
Data for Progress (D)823 LV357dR +1.2
Alaska Survey Research1,708 LV365dD +2.3
Alaska Survey Research1,623 LV440dR +4.7
Model margin
Peltola +1.7
Chance of winning
Mary Peltola62%
Dan S. Sullivan38%
Simulated vote
Mary Peltola48.5%
Dan S. Sullivan46.1%
Dan J. Sullivan3.7%
Gerald Heikes1.7%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +13.5
FundamentalsD +2.0
With pollsD +1.1
Early vote turnoutD +0.5
With early voteD +1.7

Read from 6,744 ballots cast so far in Alaska, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

62 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Mary Peltola25
  • Tony KnowlesFormer Governor of Alaskasource
  • Fran UlmerFormer Lieutenant Governor of Alaskasource
  • Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
  • Pete ButtigiegFormer U.S. Transportation Secretarysource
  • Elissa SlotkinU.S. Senator from Michigansource
  • Adam KinzingerFormer U.S. Representative from Illinoissource
  • Eric CroftFormer Alaska state representativesource
  • Tom BegichFormer Alaska Senate minority leadersource
Dan Sullivan1
Dan S. Sullivan36
  • Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
  • Lisa MurkowskiU.S. Senator from Alaskasource
  • JD VanceVice Presidentsource
  • George W. BushFormer Presidentsource
  • John CornynU.S. Senator from Texassource
  • Nick Begich IIIU.S. Representative, Alaska at largesource
  • Gary StevensAlaska Senate Presidentsource
  • Lyman HoffmanAlaska state senatorsource
On the air

Harry Enten: Listed Alaska as a toss up Senate race where Democrats lead by 3, and warned Democrats to trust no one as GOP has beaten polls in Trump states. source

Karl Rove: Said he worries about Alaska for Dan Sullivan. source

Nate Silver: His polling average showed Mary Peltola slightly ahead of Dan Sullivan, 48.1% to 46.6%. source

David Axelrod: Called Alaska a coin flip, noting Mary Peltola led the first round. source

Larry Sabato: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Alaska Senate race from Toss-up to Lean Democratic, a projected Democratic pickup. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +16R +16Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +13.5Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +2.0With pollsaverage D +0.8D +1.1With early voteturnout so farD +1.7

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupSharePeltolaSullivan
GenderMen49%45.049.2
Women51%51.843.1
Age18 to 2913%50.144.7
30 to 4425%48.646.0
45 to 6435%46.148.2
65+27%50.544.2
RaceWhite69%39.155.0
Black3%81.715.3
Latino6%58.936.3
Asian and other23%69.825.7
Race and genderWhite men33%32.561.0
White women36%45.149.5
Black men2%78.118.6
Black women2%85.212.1
Latino men3%55.539.5
Latino women3%62.832.7
All other races23%69.825.7

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by borough

30 boroughs
BoroughPeltolaSullivanOtherTotalMargin
Statewide141,556132,65315,804290,013D +3.1
Anchorage Municipality64,15648,4045,304117,864D +13.4
Matanuska-Susitna Borough12,73727,6552,67043,062R +34.7
Fairbanks North Star Borough16,76317,5682,15236,483R +2.2
Kenai Peninsula Borough10,63815,1971,53327,368R +16.6
Juneau City and Borough9,4773,86880714,152D +39.6
Ketchikan Gateway Borough2,4632,7963245,583R +5.9
Kodiak Island Borough2,3812,2523174,950D +2.6
Bethel Census Area3,3481,1132744,735D +47.2
Sitka City and Borough2,3001,1211913,612D +32.7
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area7232,1212243,068R +45.6
Nome Census Area1,6911,0561562,903D +21.8
Chugach Census Area1,4131,1662332,812D +8.6
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area1,6328951582,685D +27.5
North Slope Borough1,1171,0721602,349D +1.9
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area1,4597431282,330D +30.8
Kusilvak Census Area1,3535201151,988D +42.0
Northwest Arctic Borough1,0026521261,780D +19.7
Dillingham Census Area1,092446941,632D +39.4
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area1,0702621241,456D +55.4
Petersburg Borough6635861251,374D +5.4
Haines Borough849340841,273D +39.9
Copper River Census Area439674901,203R +19.5
Aleutians West Census Area6214261001,147D +16.8
Wrangell City and Borough37652888992R +15.6
Denali Borough46144043944D +2.2
Skagway Municipality53810051689D +63.9
Aleutians East Borough19227654522R +16.1
Lake and Peninsula Borough26811233413D +38.4
Bristol Bay Borough14219126359R +13.7
Yakutat City and Borough1927320285D +42.4

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.