Senate Democratic leader election · December 1, 2026
Majority Tracker
Chuck Schumer against Chris Van Hollen. One seat for each of the 56 members of the incoming Senate Democratic caucus, with where we project each of them to vote. 28 votes win the leadership with 55 senators seated, 29 if Mary Peltola is seated after Alaska's count.
The chamber
39Schumer
28 to win
17Van Hollen
- Needed to win
- 28 of 55 seated, 29 if Peltola wins Nov 18
- On record
- 17 · 4 stated or reported, the rest are our estimates
- Best cases
- 48 · 23 if every low confidence call flips one way
- Without Peltola
- 38 · 17 of 55 senators seated today
Read the chamber
Each candidate fills from his own wall, firmest votes first, so the seats beside the center aisle are the least certain. A side that reaches the aisle has 28, enough to win with 55 seated. With Peltola seated the bar is 29, one seat past it.
Swing senators
Warren, Murphy, Slotkin, Pappas, Talarico and Colom are the likeliest to move the count. Warnock and Booker are next.
What Van Hollen needs
Even if every low confidence Schumer pick flips, he reaches 23. He would also need at least 5 senators we rate medium for Schumer, 6 if Peltola is seated.
All 56 senators
| Position | Why | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer | NY | Schumer | Stated | The candidate. Says he has the votes, Nov 12. |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | NY | Schumer | Stated | Said he will win any leader race, WCAX Nov 10. |
| John Fetterman | PA | Schumer | Stated | Said he will vote for Schumer, Nov 11. |
| Ruben Gallego | AZ | Schumer | Stated | Backed Schumer with a World Series manager line, NBC Nov 10. |
| Mark Kelly | AZ | Schumer | Stated | Said yes on support, Roll Call Nov 10. |
| Richard Blumenthal | CT | Schumer | Stated | Plans to support Schumer, CT Public Nov 9. One later list says uncommitted. |
| Sherrod Brown | OH | Schumer | Stated | Said yes, NBC Nov 10. A Schumer recruit. |
| Angus King | ME | Schumer | Stated | Restated support after the challenge, Roll Call Nov 12. |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | RI | Schumer | Stated | Said the win justifies another term, Washington Post Nov 6. |
| Tammy Baldwin | WI | Schumer | Reported | Will once again support him, per FOX11 Nov 9. |
| Angela Alsobrooks | MD | Schumer | Reported | Backed Schumer on Nov 2, before her home state colleague entered. |
| Brian Schatz | HI | Schumer | Reported | Backed Schumer per The Well News Nov 10. Expected whip. |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | NV | Schumer | Reported | Backed Schumer per The Well News Nov 10. Former DSCC chair. |
| Josh Turek | IA | Schumer | Reported | Expected to back Schumer per The Hill Nov 11. Declined to affirm per PolitiFact. |
| Roy Cooper | NC | Schumer | Reported | Expected to back Schumer per The Hill Nov 11. A Schumer recruit. |
| Ben Ray Luján | NM | Schumer | Reported | Asked who was running against Schumer, Nov 2. |
| Tim Kaine | VA | Schumer | Reported | Gave Schumer an A, Punchbowl News Jan 15. |
| Adam Schiff | CA | Schumer | Estimate, high confidence | Seeking a leadership role, not challenging the team, Semafor Nov 10. |
| Amy Klobuchar | MN | Schumer | Estimate, high confidence | On the leadership team and leaving Jan 4. Her Dec 1 vote is unconfirmed. |
| Jacky Rosen | NV | Schumer | Estimate, high confidence | No public statement. A moderate who has not broken with leadership. |
| Jack Reed | RI | Schumer | Estimate, high confidence | No public statement. Senior member, and his state partner Whitehouse backs Schumer. |
| Chris Coons | DE | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | Open to hearing others, PBS Nov 11. Institutionalist. |
| Patty Murray | WA | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | The caucus will decide, KUOW Nov 10. Former leadership. |
| Maria Cantwell | WA | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | Gave him points for the victory, Spokesman Review Nov 4. |
| Mark Warner | VA | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | Let's see how it plays out, Virginia Scope Nov 10. Centrist. |
| Jon Ossoff | GA | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | No answer, Al Jazeera Nov 5. Just reelected. |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | DE | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | Praised his recruiting, Nov 2. |
| Mary Peltola, if seated | AK | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | Votes only if she wins on Nov 18. A Schumer recruit per US News. |
| Alex Padilla | CA | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | No public statement. Generally votes with leadership. |
| John Hickenlooper | CO | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | No public statement. Business minded moderate. |
| Mazie Hirono | HI | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | No public statement. Progressive, but her state partner Schatz is the expected whip. |
| Tammy Duckworth | IL | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | No public statement. No history of breaking with leadership. |
| Maggie Hassan | NH | Schumer | Estimate, medium confidence | No public statement. Moderate. |
| Raphael Warnock | GA | Schumer | Estimate, low confidence | Wants to hear the case, 41NBC Nov 10. Won't commit. |
| Scott Colom | MS | Schumer | Estimate, low confidence | A Schumer recruit who won't commit. Reports conflict. |
| Ron Wyden | OR | Schumer | Estimate, low confidence | Focused on policy, per KGW Nov 10. |
| Andy Kim | NJ | Schumer | Estimate, low confidence | Supportive of leadership as of March. Reform brand. |
| Cory Booker | NJ | Schumer | Estimate, low confidence | Wants a family conversation, Oct 8. |
| Michael Bennet | CO | Schumer | Estimate, low confidence | Only an old remark on leaders knowing when to go. |
| Chris Van Hollen | MD | Van Hollen | Stated | The candidate. Announced Nov 12. |
| Bernie Sanders | VT | Van Hollen | Stated | Will not support Schumer and will support Van Hollen, Nov 10 and 11. |
| Abdul El-Sayed | MI | Van Hollen | Stated | Proud to stand with him, Roll Call Nov 12. |
| Peggy Flanagan | MN | Van Hollen | Reported | Time for new leadership, Newsweek Nov 6. Impressed by Van Hollen. |
| Juliana Stratton | IL | Van Hollen | Estimate, high confidence | Will not support Schumer, per Newsweek. Van Hollen is the only declared alternative. |
| Troy Jackson | ME | Van Hollen | Estimate, high confidence | Told Schumer he will support somebody else, The Blaze Nov 11. |
| Adam Hamilton | KS | Van Hollen | Estimate, medium confidence | Not supporting Schumer. A progressive is not an obvious fit. |
| Annie Andrews | SC | Van Hollen | Estimate, medium confidence | Wants generational change, Nov 5. Van Hollen is 67. |
| Elissa Slotkin | MI | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | A no without a concrete plan. Moderate, could be won back. |
| Peter Welch | VT | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | Committed to change, WPTZ Nov 11. Sanders's state partner. |
| Chris Pappas | NH | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | Wants a new generation, Roll Call Nov 4. Uncommitted. |
| James Talarico | TX | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | Withheld support, The Hill Nov 12. |
| Elizabeth Warren | MA | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | Not today, Nov 10. Backed primary challengers per Zeteo. |
| Chris Murphy | CT | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | No commitment found. Backed primary challengers per Zeteo. |
| Ed Markey | MA | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | Noncommittal, Boston Globe Nov 6. Backed challengers per Zeteo. |
| Jeff Merkley | OR | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | West Bank trip with Van Hollen per Zeteo. KGW says open to Schumer. |
| Martin Heinrich | NM | Van Hollen | Estimate, low confidence | Won't commit, Punchbowl News Nov 11. The least certain Van Hollen estimate. |
The leader election is a secret ballot, so individual votes may never be public. Stated and reported positions come from senators' public statements and news reports. Every other pick is On Point Politics' estimate from each senator's record, statements and ties to the candidates, and is labeled with our confidence. These are our best estimates for those who haven't announced a vote; they will change over time and this page will be updated.