2026 forecast · Iowa Senate
Josh Turek is slightly favored to win Iowa's Senate seat.
Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson, an open seat. The model has Turek ahead by 2.4 points, winning 65 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Lean DModel D +2.4Polls D +1.9Updated October 22, 2026
Josh Turek
Democrat
50.2%
688,155 projected votes
Ashley Hinson
Republican
47.8%
654,716 projected votes
65%Turek
35%Hinson
Turek favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Turek wins about 65 of 100
RatingLean D65% chance for Turek
Model marginD +2.4Polls D +1.9
80 percent rangeD +9.6 to R +4.12,000 simulations
Projected votes1,371,116Turek 50.2%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Turek +149,631 net votes from 15 countiesStatewide D +2.5, a 34,469 vote marginHinson +115,162 net votes from 84 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Josh TurekDemocrat · 65% to win
3040506070
50.2%
Ashley HinsonRepublican · 35% to win
3040506070
47.8%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,371,116 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Turek D | 688,155 | 50.2% |
| Ashley Hinson R | 654,716 | 47.8% |
| Thomas Laehn L | 28,108 | 2.1% |
| Total | 1,371,116 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.6 and R +4.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 · 1,008 LV · A++16%Turek +2.0
Quantus InsightsSep 29 · 714 LV · Gold16%Hinson +1.9
On Point PollingOct 21 · 491 LV · Gold15%Turek +4.7
New York Times/SienaOct 1 · 606 LV · Gold14%Hinson +1.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold9.8%Hinson +1.0
Emerson College/Nexstar MediaOct 6 · 650 LV · Gold8.8%Hinson +2.0
Every other poll together: 20%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +1.9 | |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,094 LV | 0d | R +0.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 863 LV | 0d | D +1.0 |
| On Point Polling | 491 LV | 0d | D +4.7 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 602 LV | 2d | D +2.0 |
| YouGov | 2,245 LV | 3d | D +0.2 |
| National Public Affairs | 678 LV | 3d | R +2.1 |
| Marist College | 512 LV | 4d | D +0.9 |
| Emerson College/Nexstar Media | 650 LV | 9d | R +1.2 |
| CNN/SSRS | 801 LV | 10d | R +3.0 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 11d | D +2.6 |
| New York Times/Siena | 606 LV | 14d | R +1.7 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1,028 LV | 15d | D +5.3 |
| Quantus Insights | 714 LV | 16d | R +0.1 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,008 LV | 17d | D +1.7 |
| Big Data Poll | 650 RV | 22d | D +3.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 22d | D +1.8 |
| Marist College | 1,050 RV | 25d | D +5.7 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,089 LV | 27d | R +0.9 |
| co/efficient (R) | 831 LV | 29d | R +0.7 |
| Cygnal (R) | 500 LV | 34d | D +1.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1,031 LV | 35d | D +6.3 |
| YouGov | 2,041 LV | 37d | D +3.2 |
| Emerson College | 750 LV | 44d | R +4.2 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 45d | D +1.7 |
| Abacus Data | 323 LV | 48d | D +7.5 |
Model margin
Turek +2.4
Chance of winning
Josh Turek65%
Ashley Hinson35%
Simulated vote
Josh Turek50.2%
Ashley Hinson47.8%
Thomas Laehn2.0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +13.4
FundamentalsD +2.9
With pollsD +3.2
Early vote turnoutR +0.7
With early voteD +2.4
Read from 111,540 ballots cast so far in Iowa, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
66 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Josh Turek43
- J.D. ScholtenIowa state representative, former primary rivalsource
- Tom HarkinFormer U.S. Senator from Iowasource
- Pete ButtigiegFormer U.S. Transportation Secretarysource
- Barack Obamasource
- Tammy DuckworthU.S. Senator from Illinoissource
- Catherine Cortez MastoU.S. Senator from Nevadasource
- Maggie HassanU.S. Senator from New Hampshiresource
- Bob Casey Jr.Former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvaniasource
Ashley Hinson23
- Donald Trumpsource
- Joni ErnstU.S. Senator from Iowasource
- Kim ReynoldsGovernor of Iowasource
- Chuck GrassleyU.S. Senator from Iowasource
- John ThuneSenate Majority Leadersource
- Tim ScottU.S. Senator, NRSC chairsource
- Tom CottonU.S. Senator from Arkansassource
- Terry BranstadFormer Governor of Iowa, former ambassador to Chinasource
On the air
Harry Enten: Named Iowa among six toss up Senate races in his big siren segment. source
Karl Rove: Predicted Republican Ashley Hinson will win. source
Karl Rove: On the Journal Editorial Report said Democrats got the better candidate in Josh Turek, though Hinson is strong. source
David Axelrod: Called the Iowa Senate race a coin flip. source
Larry Sabato: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Iowa Senate race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Turek | Hinson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 44.7 | 53.3 |
| Women | 54% | 54.2 | 43.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 55.2 | 42.7 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 49.6 | 48.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 47.0 | 50.9 |
| 65+ | 34% | 50.1 | 47.9 |
| RaceWhite | 90% | 46.7 | 51.2 |
| Black | 3% | 89.3 | 8.8 |
| Latino | 4% | 66.8 | 31.1 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 77.6 | 20.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 40.8 | 57.2 |
| White women | 49% | 51.7 | 46.2 |
| Black men | 1% | 87.3 | 10.8 |
| Black women | 2% | 91.1 | 7.0 |
| Latino men | 2% | 64.9 | 32.9 |
| Latino women | 2% | 68.7 | 29.3 |
| All other races | 4% | 77.6 | 20.1 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
99 counties| County | Turek | Hinson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 688,710 | 654,241 | 28,165 | 1,371,116 | D +2.5 |
| Polk County | 135,472 | 74,607 | 4,069 | 214,148 | D +28.4 |
| Linn County | 61,334 | 39,727 | 2,062 | 103,123 | D +21.1 |
| Scott County | 41,907 | 30,209 | 1,397 | 73,513 | D +15.9 |
| Johnson County | 51,164 | 19,781 | 1,081 | 72,026 | D +43.6 |
| Black Hawk County | 29,723 | 22,974 | 911 | 53,608 | D +12.7 |
| Dallas County | 24,587 | 24,041 | 841 | 49,469 | D +1.3 |
| Dubuque County | 22,563 | 20,306 | 875 | 43,744 | D +5.2 |
| Story County | 25,763 | 16,376 | 860 | 42,999 | D +21.8 |
| Pottawattamie County | 17,267 | 17,210 | 956 | 35,433 | D +0.2 |
| Woodbury County | 16,795 | 17,220 | 908 | 34,923 | R +1.2 |
| Warren County | 12,337 | 13,385 | 551 | 26,273 | R +3.8 |
| Clinton County | 9,515 | 9,286 | 443 | 19,244 | D +1.3 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 10,100 | 8,429 | 340 | 18,869 | D +8.8 |
| Jasper County | 7,541 | 8,651 | 415 | 16,607 | R +6.7 |
| Marion County | 5,883 | 9,692 | 318 | 15,893 | R +23.9 |
| Sioux County | 2,663 | 12,990 | 174 | 15,827 | R +65.1 |
| Muscatine County | 7,958 | 7,376 | 393 | 15,727 | D +3.6 |
| Des Moines County | 8,047 | 7,056 | 371 | 15,474 | D +6.5 |
| Marshall County | 6,948 | 7,004 | 314 | 14,266 | R +0.3 |
| Webster County | 5,944 | 7,669 | 321 | 13,934 | R +12.4 |
| Lee County | 6,303 | 6,543 | 302 | 13,148 | R +1.8 |
| Boone County | 5,980 | 6,147 | 298 | 12,425 | R +1.4 |
| Benton County | 4,922 | 7,064 | 257 | 12,243 | R +17.6 |
| Wapello County | 5,460 | 6,370 | 303 | 12,133 | R +7.3 |
| Bremer County | 5,507 | 6,354 | 205 | 12,066 | R +7.0 |
| Plymouth County | 3,253 | 7,587 | 176 | 11,016 | R +39.4 |
| Winneshiek County | 5,309 | 4,667 | 203 | 10,179 | D +6.3 |
| Washington County | 4,045 | 5,382 | 202 | 9,629 | R +13.7 |
| Dickinson County | 3,433 | 5,585 | 137 | 9,155 | R +23.5 |
| Mahaska County | 2,624 | 6,255 | 209 | 9,088 | R +39.9 |
| Jones County | 3,943 | 4,948 | 191 | 9,082 | R +11.1 |
| Carroll County | 3,230 | 5,639 | 199 | 9,068 | R +26.6 |
| Buchanan County | 3,681 | 5,012 | 214 | 8,907 | R +14.9 |
| Cedar County | 3,902 | 4,598 | 173 | 8,673 | R +8.0 |
| Jackson County | 3,785 | 4,589 | 259 | 8,633 | R +9.5 |
| Poweshiek County | 4,002 | 4,178 | 175 | 8,355 | R +2.0 |
| Delaware County | 2,835 | 5,317 | 141 | 8,293 | R +29.9 |
| Fayette County | 3,596 | 4,517 | 174 | 8,287 | R +11.1 |
| Madison County | 3,235 | 4,724 | 195 | 8,154 | R +18.2 |
| Iowa County | 3,107 | 4,676 | 167 | 7,950 | R +19.6 |
| Henry County | 3,055 | 4,670 | 214 | 7,939 | R +20.2 |
| Clayton County | 3,185 | 4,512 | 149 | 7,846 | R +17.0 |
| Hardin County | 2,789 | 4,282 | 159 | 7,230 | R +20.7 |
| Tama County | 3,124 | 3,930 | 159 | 7,213 | R +11.1 |
| Clay County | 2,590 | 4,350 | 163 | 7,103 | R +24.8 |
| Kossuth County | 2,456 | 4,491 | 149 | 7,096 | R +28.5 |
| Jefferson County | 3,948 | 2,981 | 149 | 7,078 | D +13.9 |
| Butler County | 2,317 | 4,117 | 132 | 6,566 | R +27.5 |
| Mills County | 2,545 | 3,820 | 150 | 6,515 | R +19.4 |
| Floyd County | 2,974 | 3,185 | 152 | 6,311 | R +3.1 |
| Hamilton County | 2,624 | 3,508 | 151 | 6,283 | R +14.1 |
| Harrison County | 2,336 | 3,759 | 183 | 6,278 | R +22.5 |
| Allamakee County | 2,488 | 3,536 | 160 | 6,184 | R +16.9 |
| Buena Vista County | 2,600 | 3,391 | 135 | 6,126 | R +12.7 |
| O'Brien County | 1,524 | 4,418 | 91 | 6,033 | R +47.8 |
| Page County | 2,066 | 3,841 | 108 | 6,015 | R +29.5 |
| Grundy County | 2,041 | 3,750 | 107 | 5,898 | R +28.9 |
| Cass County | 2,160 | 3,563 | 105 | 5,828 | R +24.1 |
| Lyon County | 1,016 | 4,406 | 77 | 5,499 | R +61.6 |
| Guthrie County | 2,005 | 3,259 | 135 | 5,399 | R +22.9 |
| Appanoose County | 1,849 | 3,322 | 144 | 5,315 | R +27.7 |
| Crawford County | 2,003 | 3,142 | 138 | 5,283 | R +21.5 |
| Chickasaw County | 2,052 | 3,066 | 136 | 5,254 | R +19.4 |
| Shelby County | 1,700 | 3,387 | 109 | 5,196 | R +32.5 |
| Cherokee County | 1,817 | 3,127 | 122 | 5,066 | R +25.8 |
| Union County | 1,949 | 2,939 | 135 | 5,023 | R +19.8 |
| Hancock County | 1,657 | 3,031 | 106 | 4,794 | R +28.5 |
| Wright County | 1,824 | 2,845 | 115 | 4,784 | R +21.4 |
| Winnebago County | 2,116 | 2,486 | 118 | 4,720 | R +7.7 |
| Mitchell County | 1,929 | 2,678 | 89 | 4,696 | R +15.9 |
| Sac County | 1,384 | 2,932 | 106 | 4,422 | R +34.7 |
| Calhoun County | 1,494 | 2,683 | 98 | 4,275 | R +27.7 |
| Keokuk County | 1,393 | 2,746 | 89 | 4,228 | R +32.2 |
| Humboldt County | 1,324 | 2,767 | 88 | 4,179 | R +34.2 |
| Montgomery County | 1,370 | 2,640 | 70 | 4,080 | R +30.9 |
| Louisa County | 1,666 | 2,276 | 97 | 4,039 | R +15.0 |
| Franklin County | 1,465 | 2,433 | 92 | 3,990 | R +24.2 |
| Palo Alto County | 1,429 | 2,466 | 92 | 3,987 | R +25.8 |
| Greene County | 1,609 | 2,278 | 87 | 3,974 | R +16.8 |
| Emmet County | 1,449 | 2,238 | 126 | 3,813 | R +20.5 |
| Howard County | 1,660 | 2,062 | 91 | 3,813 | R +10.3 |
| Lucas County | 1,275 | 2,418 | 95 | 3,788 | R +29.8 |
| Clarke County | 1,305 | 2,299 | 104 | 3,708 | R +26.7 |
| Monona County | 1,337 | 2,236 | 103 | 3,676 | R +24.1 |
| Worth County | 1,621 | 1,800 | 77 | 3,498 | R +4.9 |
| Adair County | 1,140 | 2,185 | 81 | 3,406 | R +30.6 |
| Davis County | 1,077 | 2,155 | 83 | 3,315 | R +32.6 |
| Monroe County | 1,052 | 2,169 | 79 | 3,300 | R +33.8 |
| Decatur County | 1,104 | 1,934 | 103 | 3,141 | R +26.4 |
| Van Buren County | 966 | 2,010 | 64 | 3,040 | R +34.0 |
| Pocahontas County | 946 | 2,004 | 75 | 3,025 | R +34.4 |
| Ida County | 988 | 1,954 | 57 | 2,999 | R +32.1 |
| Fremont County | 998 | 1,881 | 74 | 2,953 | R +29.7 |
| Audubon County | 976 | 1,616 | 53 | 2,645 | R +23.8 |
| Wayne County | 689 | 1,859 | 57 | 2,605 | R +44.7 |
| Osceola County | 620 | 1,908 | 43 | 2,571 | R +49.6 |
| Taylor County | 691 | 1,756 | 55 | 2,502 | R +42.2 |
| Ringgold County | 702 | 1,456 | 67 | 2,225 | R +33.3 |
| Adams County | 578 | 1,147 | 39 | 1,764 | R +31.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.