2026 ballot measure forecast
Virginia Question 2
Repeal same sex marriage ban
Removes the 2006 ban on same sex marriage and affirms that two adults may marry regardless of sex, gender or race with equal legal treatment. The forecast has Yes at 69.3 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
97%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.3%80% range 57 to 80
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 69.3% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 69.3% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
The campaign
Supported by Gov. Spanberger and Democratic legislators; opposed by Earle-Sears and conservative groups; money not found.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,376,697 net votes from 109 countiesStatewide Yes +38.6, a 1,345,294 vote marginNo +31,403 net votes from 24 counties
Projected vote
3,486,916 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2,416,105 | 69.3% |
| No | 1,070,811 | 30.7% |
| Total | 3,486,916 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | 365,416 | 98,074 | 463,490 | 78.8% |
| Virginia Beach city | 123,589 | 56,065 | 179,654 | 68.8% |
| Prince William County | 130,067 | 46,400 | 176,467 | 73.7% |
| Loudoun County | 126,403 | 46,295 | 172,698 | 73.2% |
| Chesterfield County | 112,105 | 46,169 | 158,274 | 70.8% |
| Henrico County | 108,769 | 32,657 | 141,426 | 76.9% |
| Arlington County | 88,906 | 14,895 | 103,801 | 85.7% |
| Chesapeake city | 69,217 | 30,855 | 100,072 | 69.2% |
| Richmond city | 82,485 | 11,304 | 93,789 | 87.9% |
| Norfolk city | 63,122 | 15,182 | 78,304 | 80.6% |
| Alexandria city | 56,085 | 9,603 | 65,688 | 85.4% |
| Newport News city | 49,856 | 14,992 | 64,848 | 76.9% |
| Stafford County | 42,669 | 19,909 | 62,578 | 68.2% |
| Spotsylvania County | 38,230 | 20,569 | 58,799 | 65.0% |
| Hampton city | 42,457 | 10,536 | 52,993 | 80.1% |
| Hanover County | 30,708 | 21,636 | 52,344 | 58.7% |
| Albemarle County | 40,354 | 11,091 | 51,445 | 78.4% |
| Roanoke County | 25,720 | 17,185 | 42,905 | 59.9% |
| Suffolk city | 29,561 | 10,943 | 40,504 | 73.0% |
| James City County | 26,797 | 11,514 | 38,311 | 69.9% |
| Frederick County | 21,781 | 16,030 | 37,811 | 57.6% |
| Montgomery County | 26,069 | 11,673 | 37,742 | 69.1% |
| Bedford County | 17,685 | 19,335 | 37,020 | 47.8% |
| Portsmouth city | 28,386 | 7,206 | 35,592 | 79.8% |
| Roanoke city | 26,200 | 8,577 | 34,777 | 75.3% |
| Rockingham County | 18,602 | 15,854 | 34,456 | 54.0% |
| Augusta County | 16,013 | 16,562 | 32,575 | 49.2% |
| Fauquier County | 19,612 | 12,938 | 32,550 | 60.3% |
| York County | 19,948 | 10,343 | 30,291 | 65.9% |
| Lynchburg city | 19,591 | 10,440 | 30,031 | 65.2% |
| Pittsylvania County | 13,104 | 12,425 | 25,529 | 51.3% |
| Campbell County | 11,267 | 11,884 | 23,151 | 48.7% |
| Franklin County | 11,522 | 11,405 | 22,927 | 50.3% |
| Washington County | 10,140 | 11,768 | 21,908 | 46.3% |
| Culpeper County | 12,321 | 8,569 | 20,890 | 59.0% |
| Charlottesville city | 17,635 | 2,267 | 19,902 | 88.6% |
| Henry County | 10,985 | 8,681 | 19,666 | 55.9% |
| Isle of Wight County | 11,025 | 7,054 | 18,079 | 61.0% |
| Shenandoah County | 9,263 | 8,671 | 17,934 | 51.7% |
| Louisa County | 10,101 | 7,159 | 17,260 | 58.5% |
| Gloucester County | 9,084 | 7,916 | 17,000 | 53.4% |
| Warren County | 8,785 | 7,568 | 16,353 | 53.7% |
| Orange County | 9,531 | 6,594 | 16,125 | 59.1% |
| Botetourt County | 7,925 | 7,820 | 15,745 | 50.3% |
| Harrisonburg city | 11,583 | 3,677 | 15,260 | 75.9% |
| Danville city | 11,312 | 3,865 | 15,177 | 74.5% |
| Tazewell County | 5,518 | 9,380 | 14,898 | 37.0% |
| Powhatan County | 7,560 | 7,314 | 14,874 | 50.8% |
| Prince George County | 8,792 | 5,762 | 14,554 | 60.4% |
| Halifax County | 8,441 | 5,506 | 13,947 | 60.5% |
| Pulaski County | 6,727 | 6,572 | 13,299 | 50.6% |
| Goochland County | 8,066 | 5,067 | 13,133 | 61.4% |
| Amherst County | 7,117 | 5,995 | 13,112 | 54.3% |
| Accomack County | 8,301 | 4,800 | 13,101 | 63.4% |
| Caroline County | 8,418 | 4,545 | 12,963 | 64.9% |
| Manassas city | 9,395 | 3,530 | 12,925 | 72.7% |
| Wise County | 5,160 | 7,526 | 12,686 | 40.7% |
| Mecklenburg County | 7,589 | 4,928 | 12,517 | 60.6% |
| Fluvanna County | 8,156 | 4,236 | 12,392 | 65.8% |
| Petersburg city | 10,901 | 1,251 | 12,152 | 89.7% |
| Carroll County | 4,778 | 6,968 | 11,746 | 40.7% |
| Dinwiddie County | 6,966 | 4,696 | 11,662 | 59.7% |
| Wythe County | 4,861 | 6,480 | 11,341 | 42.9% |
| New Kent County | 6,375 | 4,960 | 11,335 | 56.2% |
| King George County | 6,651 | 4,634 | 11,285 | 58.9% |
| Smyth County | 4,578 | 6,238 | 10,816 | 42.3% |
| Fredericksburg city | 8,400 | 2,399 | 10,799 | 77.8% |
| Staunton city | 7,586 | 2,919 | 10,505 | 72.2% |
| Salem city | 6,200 | 3,936 | 10,136 | 61.2% |
| Fairfax city | 7,906 | 2,184 | 10,090 | 78.4% |
| Russell County | 3,790 | 6,167 | 9,957 | 38.1% |
| Rockbridge County | 5,316 | 4,279 | 9,595 | 55.4% |
| Winchester city | 6,764 | 2,752 | 9,516 | 71.1% |
| Page County | 4,356 | 5,152 | 9,508 | 45.8% |
| Greene County | 5,156 | 3,574 | 8,730 | 59.1% |
| Waynesboro city | 5,617 | 2,893 | 8,510 | 66.0% |
| Scott County | 2,965 | 5,264 | 8,229 | 36.0% |
| King William County | 4,240 | 3,843 | 8,083 | 52.5% |
| Prince Edward County | 5,410 | 2,657 | 8,067 | 67.1% |
| Westmoreland County | 4,961 | 2,913 | 7,874 | 63.0% |
| Lee County | 2,693 | 5,018 | 7,711 | 34.9% |
| Hopewell city | 5,461 | 2,091 | 7,552 | 72.3% |
| Southampton County | 4,418 | 3,095 | 7,513 | 58.8% |
| Buchanan County | 2,588 | 4,602 | 7,190 | 36.0% |
| Clarke County | 4,380 | 2,680 | 7,060 | 62.0% |
| Patrick County | 2,987 | 4,070 | 7,057 | 42.3% |
| Nelson County | 4,590 | 2,430 | 7,020 | 65.4% |
| Floyd County | 3,766 | 3,221 | 6,987 | 53.9% |
| Appomattox County | 3,313 | 3,671 | 6,984 | 47.4% |
| Colonial Heights city | 3,860 | 3,035 | 6,895 | 56.0% |
| Falls Church city | 5,874 | 906 | 6,780 | 86.6% |
| Giles County | 3,084 | 3,673 | 6,757 | 45.6% |
| Williamsburg city | 5,282 | 1,201 | 6,483 | 81.5% |
| Brunswick County | 4,488 | 1,863 | 6,351 | 70.7% |
| Buckingham County | 3,774 | 2,562 | 6,336 | 59.6% |
| Madison County | 3,399 | 2,801 | 6,200 | 54.8% |
| Alleghany County | 2,973 | 3,106 | 6,079 | 48.9% |
| Grayson County | 2,500 | 3,559 | 6,059 | 41.3% |
| Northumberland County | 3,656 | 2,389 | 6,045 | 60.5% |
| Bristol city | 3,144 | 2,800 | 5,944 | 52.9% |
| Amelia County | 2,998 | 2,906 | 5,904 | 50.8% |
| Radford city | 3,908 | 1,831 | 5,739 | 68.1% |
| Poquoson city | 2,849 | 2,863 | 5,712 | 49.9% |
| Nottoway County | 3,332 | 2,219 | 5,551 | 60.0% |
| Lancaster County | 3,611 | 1,897 | 5,508 | 65.6% |
| Dickenson County | 2,179 | 3,090 | 5,269 | 41.4% |
| Northampton County | 3,666 | 1,578 | 5,244 | 69.9% |
| Middlesex County | 2,996 | 2,164 | 5,160 | 58.1% |
| Manassas Park city | 3,607 | 1,247 | 4,854 | 74.3% |
| Martinsville city | 3,513 | 1,170 | 4,683 | 75.0% |
| Essex County | 3,040 | 1,615 | 4,655 | 65.3% |
| Charlotte County | 2,603 | 2,047 | 4,650 | 56.0% |
| Lunenburg County | 2,739 | 1,836 | 4,575 | 59.9% |
| Mathews County | 2,302 | 2,040 | 4,342 | 53.0% |
| Cumberland County | 2,479 | 1,646 | 4,125 | 60.1% |
| Sussex County | 2,860 | 1,263 | 4,123 | 69.4% |
| Greensville County | 2,720 | 1,117 | 3,837 | 70.9% |
| Rappahannock County | 2,254 | 1,401 | 3,655 | 61.7% |
| Charles City County | 2,352 | 943 | 3,295 | 71.4% |
| Surry County | 2,228 | 1,063 | 3,291 | 67.7% |
| Richmond County | 1,854 | 1,402 | 3,256 | 56.9% |
| Franklin city | 2,347 | 780 | 3,127 | 75.1% |
| King and Queen County | 1,808 | 1,270 | 3,078 | 58.7% |
| Lexington city | 2,057 | 640 | 2,697 | 76.3% |
| Bland County | 949 | 1,658 | 2,607 | 36.4% |
| Buena Vista city | 1,125 | 1,105 | 2,230 | 50.4% |
| Craig County | 874 | 1,324 | 2,198 | 39.8% |
| Galax city | 1,066 | 1,026 | 2,092 | 51.0% |
| Covington city | 1,075 | 856 | 1,931 | 55.7% |
| Emporia city | 1,437 | 418 | 1,855 | 77.5% |
| Bath County | 844 | 989 | 1,833 | 46.0% |
| Norton city | 629 | 602 | 1,231 | 51.1% |
| Highland County | 571 | 557 | 1,128 | 50.6% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Question 2 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Virginia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.virginia.gov, theballotbrief.com, cardinalnews.org, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.