SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana CI-133

Protect initiative and referendum rights

Adds initiative and referendum rights to the Declaration of Rights, applies strict scrutiny to limits, and sets rules for ballot language and signature gathering. The forecast has Yes at 49.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 48% chance to pass.

Toss upCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentElectionsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
48%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
49.4%
80% range 37 to 63
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
49.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
49.4% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Montanans Decide, over 2 million raised; opposed by Rep. Braxton Mitchell side.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-132
Keep judicial elections nonpartisan
60%
I-194
Bar corporate political spending via charter limits
86%

CI-133 by county

Beaverhead CountyBig Horn CountyBlaine CountyBroadwater CountyCarbon CountyCarter CountyCascade CountyChouteau CountyCuster CountyDaniels CountyDawson CountyDeer Lodge CountyFallon CountyFergus CountyFlathead CountyGallatin CountyGarfield CountyGlacier CountyGolden Valley CountyGranite CountyHill CountyJefferson CountyJudith Basin CountyLake CountyLewis and Clark CountyLiberty CountyLincoln CountyMcCone CountyMadison CountyMeagher CountyMineral CountyMissoula CountyMusselshell CountyPark CountyPetroleum CountyPhillips CountyPondera CountyPowder River CountyPowell CountyPrairie CountyRavalli CountyRichland CountyRoosevelt CountyRosebud CountySanders CountySheridan CountySilver Bow CountyStillwater CountySweet Grass CountyTeton CountyToole CountyTreasure CountyValley CountyWheatland CountyWibaux CountyYellowstone CountyYellowstoneMissoulaGallatinFlatheadLewis and ClarkRavalliSilver BowLakeLincolnParkSandersJefferson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Missoula County: Yes +14,642Gallatin County: Yes +7,943Lewis and Clark County: Yes +2,937Silver Bow County: Yes +2,478Glacier County: Yes +996Park County: Yes +674Deer Lodge County: Yes +540Big Horn County: Yes +427Blaine County: Yes +198Roosevelt County: Yes +195Hill County: Yes +38Flathead County: No +4,728Yellowstone County: No +3,374Ravalli County: No +3,353Lincoln County: No +2,313Sanders County: No +1,688Richland County: No +1,619Stillwater County: No +1,444Fergus County: No +1,238Broadwater County: No +1,109Dawson County: No +1,093Custer County: No +1,025Musselshell County: No +991Madison County: No +874Beaverhead County: No +773Valley County: No +744Jefferson County: No +733Powell County: No +706Cascade County: No +594Phillips County: No +580Fallon County: No +575Teton County: No +506Toole County: No +496Carbon County: No +495Mineral County: No +457Sweet Grass County: No +445Powder River County: No +394McCone County: No +385Garfield County: No +371Pondera County: No +369Carter County: No +365Rosebud County: No +358Granite County: No +297Judith Basin County: No +291Daniels County: No +260Sheridan County: No +256Wheatland County: No +255Meagher County: No +238Liberty County: No +208Chouteau County: No +206Prairie County: No +186Wibaux County: No +185Golden Valley County: No +173Treasure County: No +154Petroleum County: No +117Lake County: No +39
Yes +31,068 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide No +1.1, a 5,992 vote marginNo +37,060 net votes from 45 counties

Projected vote

531,404 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes262,70649.4%
No268,69850.6%
Total531,404100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Yellowstone County35,01338,38773,40047.7%
Missoula County38,86324,22163,08461.6%
Gallatin County34,59926,65661,25556.5%
Flathead County24,87729,60554,48245.7%
Lewis and Clark County19,94817,01136,95954.0%
Cascade County17,23117,82535,05649.2%
Ravalli County11,09814,45125,54943.4%
Silver Bow County9,4366,95816,39457.6%
Lake County7,5197,55815,07749.9%
Lincoln County4,0716,38410,45538.9%
Park County5,2814,6079,88853.4%
Sanders County2,7304,4187,14838.2%
Jefferson County3,1323,8656,99744.8%
Carbon County2,8803,3756,25546.0%
Hill County3,0623,0246,08650.3%
Fergus County2,3303,5685,89839.5%
Custer County2,1713,1965,36740.5%
Madison County2,2463,1205,36641.9%
Beaverhead County2,1472,9205,06742.4%
Stillwater County1,7693,2134,98235.5%
Richland County1,5143,1334,64732.6%
Deer Lodge County2,5752,0354,61055.9%
Glacier County2,7381,7424,48061.1%
Big Horn County2,3061,8794,18555.1%
Dawson County1,5042,5974,10136.7%
Broadwater County1,4352,5443,97936.1%
Valley County1,4242,1683,59239.6%
Roosevelt County1,8191,6243,44352.8%
Rosebud County1,4351,7933,22844.5%
Powell County1,2061,9123,11838.7%
Teton County1,2981,8043,10241.8%
Chouteau County1,2041,4102,61446.1%
Pondera County1,1221,4912,61342.9%
Musselshell County8081,7992,60731.0%
Blaine County1,3701,1722,54253.9%
Mineral County1,0031,4602,46340.7%
Sweet Grass County7831,2282,01138.9%
Toole County7481,2441,99237.6%
Phillips County6901,2701,96035.2%
Granite County8091,1061,91542.2%
Sheridan County7319871,71842.5%
Fallon County3829571,33928.5%
Judith Basin County4137041,11737.0%
Meagher County4086461,05438.7%
Wheatland County35460996336.8%
Powder River County28367796029.5%
McCone County28166694729.7%
Liberty County34955790638.5%
Daniels County27553581034.0%
Carter County19656175725.9%
Prairie County22641263835.4%
Garfield County12049161119.6%
Wibaux County14833348130.8%
Golden Valley County13931245130.8%
Treasure County12628040631.0%
Petroleum County8119827929.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
CI-133 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.