2026 ballot measure forecast

New Mexico Bond Question 3

Higher education and tribal schools bond

Authorizes 352,225,379 dollars in general obligation bonds for higher education institutions, special schools and tribal schools. The forecast has Yes at 65.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 93% chance to pass.

Likely to passBond issueBonds and budgetsUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

93%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

65.7%

80% range 52 to 77

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 65.7% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 65.7% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.

The campaign

2026 Capital Projects GO Bond Act; repaid by property tax levy.

Also on the New Mexico ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1

End pocket veto, require veto explanations

97%

Constitutional Amendment 2

Allow school elections with partisan elections

84%

Constitutional Amendment 3

Nominating committee for university regents

94%

Constitutional Amendment 4

Tie legislator pay to median income

97%

Bond Question 1

Senior citizen facilities bond

95%

Bond Question 2

Library acquisitions bond

94%

Bond Question 3 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +241,250 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide Yes +31.4, a 241,250 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

769,438 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	505,344	65.7%
No	264,094	34.3%
Total	769,438	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Bernalillo County	175,526	85,317	260,843	67.3%
Santa Fe County	50,499	21,155	71,654	70.5%
Doña Ana County	45,824	23,499	69,323	66.1%
Sandoval County	42,065	21,973	64,038	65.7%
San Juan County	26,352	16,452	42,804	61.6%
Valencia County	17,280	9,999	27,279	63.3%
McKinley County	14,632	6,987	21,619	67.7%
Otero County	12,712	7,747	20,459	62.1%
Eddy County	11,042	7,907	18,949	58.3%
Chaves County	11,126	7,449	18,575	59.9%
Lea County	9,863	7,356	17,219	57.3%
Taos County	10,191	4,299	14,490	70.3%
Rio Arriba County	9,244	4,529	13,773	67.1%
Curry County	7,622	5,040	12,662	60.2%
Grant County	7,855	4,117	11,972	65.6%
San Miguel County	6,878	3,234	10,112	68.0%
Los Alamos County	6,886	3,194	10,080	68.3%
Lincoln County	5,203	3,363	8,566	60.7%
Cibola County	5,117	2,725	7,842	65.3%
Luna County	4,255	2,493	6,748	63.1%
Socorro County	3,957	2,160	6,117	64.7%
Torrance County	3,553	2,294	5,847	60.8%
Roosevelt County	3,295	2,188	5,483	60.1%
Colfax County	3,159	1,809	4,968	63.6%
Sierra County	3,101	1,820	4,921	63.0%
Quay County	1,898	1,246	3,144	60.4%
Mora County	1,484	735	2,219	66.9%
Catron County	1,173	810	1,983	59.2%
Guadalupe County	1,078	576	1,654	65.2%
Hidalgo County	984	588	1,572	62.6%
Union County	855	600	1,455	58.8%
De Baca County	416	291	707	58.8%
Harding County	219	142	361	60.7%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Bond Question 3 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with New Mexico's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.nm.gov. All measures.