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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

Tennessee House forecast

Republicans win control of the Tennessee House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 99 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 3 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 99On the ballot 99Tennessee SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
24 to 28
Median 26 ยท 50 for a majority
Favored to flip
1to D1to R
After 2024: 24 D, 75 R
Environment
D +8.9
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Tennessee House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats 6%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18: Democrats 47%District 19: Democrats <1%District 20: Democrats <1%District 21: Democrats <1%District 22: Democrats <1%District 23: Democrats <1%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats <1%District 27: Democrats 2%District 28: Democrats >99%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats 9%District 31: Democrats <1%District 32: Democrats <1%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats 3%District 35: Democrats <1%District 36: Democrats <1%District 37: Democrats <1%District 38: Democrats <1%District 39: Democrats <1%District 40: Democrats <1%District 41: Democrats <1%District 42: Democrats <1%District 43: Democrats <1%District 44: Democrats <1%District 45: Democrats <1%District 46: Democrats <1%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats <1%District 49: Democrats 49%District 50: Democrats >99%District 51: Democrats >99%District 52: Democrats >99%District 53: Democrats >99%District 54: Democrats >99%District 55: Democrats >99%District 56: Democrats >99%District 57: Democrats <1%District 58: Democrats >99%District 59: Democrats 97%District 60: Democrats >99%District 61: Democrats <1%District 62: Democrats <1%District 63: Democrats <1%District 64: Democrats <1%District 65: Democrats <1%District 66: Democrats <1%District 67: Democrats 96%District 68: Democrats <1%District 69: Democrats <1%District 70: Democrats <1%District 71: Democrats <1%District 72: Democrats <1%District 73: Democrats <1%District 74: Democrats <1%District 75: Democrats 43%District 76: Democrats <1%District 77: Democrats <1%District 78: Democrats <1%District 79: Democrats <1%District 80: Democrats >99%District 81: Democrats <1%District 82: Democrats <1%District 83: Democrats 32%District 84: Democrats >99%District 85: Democrats >99%District 86: Democrats >99%District 87: Democrats >99%District 88: Democrats >99%District 89: Democrats <1%District 90: Democrats >99%District 91: Democrats >99%District 92: Democrats <1%District 93: Democrats <1%District 94: Democrats <1%District 95: Democrats <1%District 96: Democrats >99%District 97: Democrats 95%District 98: Democrats >99%District 99: Democrats <1%3459101112212223253132363839404143476264697071727374767778798081829294
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 26 D to 73 R
District 15: Democrats win >99%District 28: Democrats win >99%District 50: Democrats win >99%District 51: Democrats win >99%District 52: Democrats win >99%District 53: Democrats win >99%District 54: Democrats win >99%District 55: Democrats win >99%District 56: Democrats win >99%District 58: Democrats win >99%District 60: Democrats win >99%District 80: Democrats win >99%District 84: Democrats win >99%District 85: Democrats win >99%District 86: Democrats win >99%District 87: Democrats win >99%District 88: Democrats win >99%District 90: Democrats win >99%District 91: Democrats win >99%District 96: Democrats win >99%District 98: Democrats win >99%District 59: Democrats win 97%District 67: Democrats win 96%District 97: Democrats win 95%District 49: Democrats win 49%District 18: Democrats win 47%District 75: Democrats win 43%District 83: Democrats win 32%District 30: Democrats win 9%District 13: Democrats win 6%District 34: Democrats win 3%District 27: Democrats win 2%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 61: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 89: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 21: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 26: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 35: Democrats win <1%District 36: Democrats win <1%District 38: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 40: Democrats win <1%District 41: Democrats win <1%District 42: Democrats win <1%District 43: Democrats win <1%District 44: Democrats win <1%District 45: Democrats win <1%District 46: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 48: Democrats win <1%District 57: Democrats win <1%District 62: Democrats win <1%District 63: Democrats win <1%District 64: Democrats win <1%District 65: Democrats win <1%District 66: Democrats win <1%District 68: Democrats win <1%District 69: Democrats win <1%District 70: Democrats win <1%District 71: Democrats win <1%District 72: Democrats win <1%District 73: Democrats win <1%District 74: Democrats win <1%District 76: Democrats win <1%District 77: Democrats win <1%District 78: Democrats win <1%District 79: Democrats win <1%District 81: Democrats win <1%District 82: Democrats win <1%District 92: Democrats win <1%District 93: Democrats win <1%District 94: Democrats win <1%District 95: Democrats win <1%District 99: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
50 for a majority1935

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
49Mike Sparks 2024Connie Casha vs Mike SparksR +5.8R +0.449%6,1976,24412,630Toss up
18Elaine Davis 2024Bryan Goldberg vs Elaine DavisR +10.4R +0.647%12,38912,53925,308Toss up
75Jeff Burkhart 2024Allie Phillips vs Michael LankfordR +15.4R +1.343%7,5837,77515,593Toss up
83Mark White 2024Margaret Price vs Mark WhiteR +8.0R +3.432%12,58813,46526,450Lean R
30Esther Helton-Haynes 2024Art Rymer vs Esther Helton-HaynesR +16.7R +8.79%10,36212,33723,045Likely R
13Robert Stevens 2024Brett Windrow vs Robert StevensR +21.5R +10.96%9,91412,33222,585Likely R
97John Gillespie 2024Jesse Huseth vs John GillespieD +9.1D +11.295%13,98711,17625,546Likely D
67Ronnie Glynn 2024Ronnie L. Glynn vs Chris LanierR +0.7D +11.996%9,8337,73517,835Likely D

Projected Tennessee House vote

99 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats774,37234.8%
Republicans1,407,94763.3%
Independents and others40,5231.8%
Total2,222,846100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.