2026 forecast · Minnesota Attorney General
Keith Ellison is very likely to win Minnesota's attorney general race.
Keith Ellison vs Ron Schutz, with Keith Ellison running again. The model has Ellison ahead by 8.6 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +8.6Polls D +4.2Updated October 22, 2026
Keith Ellison
Democrat
52.0%
1,452,307 projected votes
Ron Schutz
Republican
43.3%
1,210,843 projected votes
96%Ellison
4%Schutz
Ellison all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Ellison wins about 96 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ellison +517,756 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide D +8.6, a 241,467 vote marginSchutz +276,289 net votes from 75 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,794,235 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Ellison D | 1,452,307 | 52.0% |
| Ron Schutz R | 1,210,843 | 43.3% |
| Other candidates | 131,083 | 4.7% |
| Total | 2,794,235 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
87 counties| County | Ellison | Schutz | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,452,308 | 1,210,841 | 131,088 | 2,794,237 | D +8.6 |
| Hennepin County | 456,429 | 154,852 | 30,088 | 641,369 | D +47.0 |
| Ramsey County | 181,311 | 56,338 | 11,697 | 249,346 | D +50.1 |
| Dakota County | 123,008 | 89,111 | 10,440 | 222,559 | D +15.2 |
| Anoka County | 82,362 | 85,401 | 8,257 | 176,020 | R +1.7 |
| Washington County | 74,761 | 61,914 | 6,727 | 143,402 | D +9.0 |
| St. Louis County | 61,880 | 36,645 | 4,849 | 103,374 | D +24.4 |
| Olmsted County | 43,337 | 31,131 | 3,666 | 78,134 | D +15.6 |
| Scott County | 33,025 | 38,820 | 3,537 | 75,382 | R +7.7 |
| Stearns County | 25,061 | 45,290 | 3,463 | 73,814 | R +27.4 |
| Wright County | 23,355 | 45,091 | 3,370 | 71,816 | R +30.3 |
| Carver County | 25,464 | 29,429 | 2,701 | 57,594 | R +6.9 |
| Sherburne County | 14,456 | 30,459 | 2,211 | 47,126 | R +34.0 |
| Crow Wing County | 11,621 | 22,456 | 1,677 | 35,754 | R +30.3 |
| Rice County | 14,749 | 15,260 | 1,477 | 31,486 | R +1.6 |
| Blue Earth County | 15,277 | 14,546 | 1,468 | 31,291 | D +2.3 |
| Otter Tail County | 10,126 | 19,454 | 1,456 | 31,036 | R +30.1 |
| Chisago County | 9,864 | 17,602 | 1,351 | 28,817 | R +26.9 |
| Clay County | 14,365 | 11,728 | 1,284 | 27,377 | D +9.6 |
| Goodhue County | 10,386 | 13,202 | 1,161 | 24,749 | R +11.4 |
| Winona County | 11,068 | 11,490 | 1,110 | 23,668 | R +1.8 |
| Itasca County | 9,595 | 12,455 | 1,086 | 23,136 | R +12.4 |
| Douglas County | 6,178 | 14,135 | 999 | 21,312 | R +37.3 |
| Beltrami County | 9,868 | 10,070 | 982 | 20,920 | R +1.0 |
| Isanti County | 6,166 | 13,707 | 978 | 20,851 | R +36.2 |
| Kandiyohi County | 6,849 | 12,226 | 939 | 20,014 | R +26.9 |
| Benton County | 5,593 | 12,232 | 878 | 18,703 | R +35.5 |
| Steele County | 6,505 | 10,527 | 838 | 17,870 | R +22.5 |
| McLeod County | 4,830 | 12,126 | 836 | 17,792 | R +41.0 |
| Carlton County | 9,068 | 7,776 | 829 | 17,673 | D +7.3 |
| Morrison County | 3,431 | 12,692 | 793 | 16,916 | R +54.8 |
| Nicollet County | 8,105 | 7,979 | 792 | 16,876 | D +0.8 |
| Becker County | 5,381 | 10,374 | 775 | 16,530 | R +30.2 |
| Cass County | 5,317 | 10,410 | 775 | 16,502 | R +30.9 |
| Mower County | 7,395 | 7,880 | 753 | 16,028 | R +3.0 |
| Le Sueur County | 4,749 | 9,094 | 682 | 14,525 | R +29.9 |
| Freeborn County | 5,745 | 7,751 | 664 | 14,160 | R +14.2 |
| Pine County | 4,039 | 9,257 | 654 | 13,950 | R +37.4 |
| Polk County | 4,373 | 7,810 | 599 | 12,782 | R +26.9 |
| Brown County | 3,715 | 8,274 | 590 | 12,579 | R +36.3 |
| Mille Lacs County | 3,507 | 8,305 | 582 | 12,394 | R +38.7 |
| Todd County | 2,511 | 8,559 | 544 | 11,614 | R +52.1 |
| Meeker County | 3,064 | 7,983 | 545 | 11,592 | R +42.4 |
| Hubbard County | 3,936 | 7,094 | 543 | 11,573 | R +27.3 |
| Wabasha County | 4,049 | 6,875 | 538 | 11,462 | R +24.7 |
| Lyon County | 3,609 | 6,926 | 519 | 11,054 | R +30.0 |
| Fillmore County | 4,042 | 5,811 | 485 | 10,338 | R +17.1 |
| Dodge County | 3,579 | 6,222 | 483 | 10,284 | R +25.7 |
| Houston County | 4,101 | 5,020 | 449 | 9,570 | R +9.6 |
| Martin County | 2,569 | 6,140 | 429 | 9,138 | R +39.1 |
| Aitkin County | 3,014 | 5,542 | 421 | 8,977 | R +28.2 |
| Waseca County | 2,933 | 5,571 | 419 | 8,923 | R +29.6 |
| Kanabec County | 2,303 | 5,221 | 370 | 7,894 | R +37.0 |
| Sibley County | 1,848 | 5,003 | 337 | 7,188 | R +43.9 |
| Roseau County | 1,803 | 4,946 | 333 | 7,082 | R +44.4 |
| Redwood County | 1,767 | 4,954 | 331 | 7,052 | R +45.2 |
| Nobles County | 2,151 | 4,505 | 328 | 6,984 | R +33.7 |
| Renville County | 1,920 | 4,534 | 317 | 6,771 | R +38.6 |
| Wadena County | 1,559 | 4,752 | 310 | 6,621 | R +48.2 |
| Faribault County | 2,020 | 4,274 | 310 | 6,604 | R +34.1 |
| Pennington County | 2,161 | 3,660 | 287 | 6,108 | R +24.6 |
| Pope County | 2,055 | 3,734 | 285 | 6,074 | R +27.6 |
| Lake County | 3,282 | 2,466 | 283 | 6,031 | D +13.5 |
| Koochiching County | 2,297 | 3,209 | 271 | 5,777 | R +15.8 |
| Chippewa County | 1,803 | 3,309 | 252 | 5,364 | R +28.1 |
| Cottonwood County | 1,430 | 3,398 | 238 | 5,066 | R +38.9 |
| Jackson County | 1,382 | 3,260 | 228 | 4,870 | R +38.6 |
| Yellow Medicine County | 1,348 | 3,055 | 217 | 4,620 | R +36.9 |
| Rock County | 1,295 | 3,028 | 213 | 4,536 | R +38.2 |
| Stevens County | 1,544 | 2,673 | 207 | 4,424 | R +25.5 |
| Swift County | 1,398 | 2,733 | 203 | 4,334 | R +30.8 |
| Marshall County | 1,073 | 3,027 | 202 | 4,302 | R +45.4 |
| Watonwan County | 1,500 | 2,524 | 198 | 4,222 | R +24.2 |
| Murray County | 1,132 | 2,796 | 194 | 4,122 | R +40.4 |
| Pipestone County | 1,004 | 2,924 | 193 | 4,121 | R +46.6 |
| Clearwater County | 1,001 | 2,776 | 185 | 3,962 | R +44.8 |
| Lac qui Parle County | 1,173 | 2,050 | 159 | 3,382 | R +25.9 |
| Cook County | 2,312 | 893 | 159 | 3,364 | D +42.2 |
| Grant County | 1,075 | 1,858 | 145 | 3,078 | R +25.5 |
| Wilkin County | 869 | 1,834 | 133 | 2,836 | R +34.0 |
| Norman County | 1,108 | 1,547 | 131 | 2,786 | R +15.8 |
| Lincoln County | 788 | 1,780 | 126 | 2,694 | R +36.8 |
| Big Stone County | 873 | 1,527 | 118 | 2,518 | R +26.0 |
| Kittson County | 808 | 1,189 | 99 | 2,096 | R +18.2 |
| Lake of the Woods County | 536 | 1,348 | 92 | 1,976 | R +41.1 |
| Mahnomen County | 869 | 927 | 88 | 1,884 | R +3.1 |
| Red Lake County | 564 | 1,113 | 82 | 1,759 | R +31.2 |
| Traverse County | 536 | 972 | 75 | 1,583 | R +27.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.0 and D +2.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +12.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +14.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +14.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +17.9 |
| With polls, 65% weight | D +8.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.0 and D +2.3.
Polls of the race
7 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ellison | Schutz | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 718 LV | 2026-10-12 | 45 | 44 | D +1.0 |
| Mason-Dixon for Star Tribune / KARE 11 (Minnesota Poll) | LV | 2026-10-07 | 48 | 40 | D +8.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 654 LV | 2026-09-14 | 43 | 45 | R +2.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 661 LV | 2026-08-17 | 43 | 43 | R +0.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 1,435 LV | 2026-08-04 | 44 | 36 | D +8.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 1,387 LV | 2026-07-20 | 42 | 38 | D +4.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 1,440 LV | 2026-06-16 | 44 | 37 | D +7.0 |