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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Proposition 136

Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent

Caps individual and corporate income tax rates at 4.4 percent of federal taxable income. The forecast has Yes at 50.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 51% chance to pass.

Toss upCitizen initiated statuteIncome taxUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
51%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
50.0%
80% range 37 to 63
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
50.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
50.0% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority. Competes with Amendment 87; if both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes; Gov. Polis predicted it would pass.

Also on the Colorado ballot

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Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding
95%
Amendment 81
Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS
37%
Amendment 82
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Amendment 83
Constitutional right to hunt and fish
76%
Amendment 84
ID number required on mail ballots
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Amendment 85
Plain language ballot questions
13%
Amendment 86
Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting
6%
Amendment 87
Graduated income tax for schools and health
33%
Proposition 132
Tougher fentanyl penalties
91%
Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
91%
Proposition 134
School sports teams by biological sex
58%
Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
57%
Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%

Proposition 136 by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
El Paso County: Yes +32,744Weld County: Yes +22,393Douglas County: Yes +17,197Mesa County: Yes +13,157Pueblo County: Yes +5,952Fremont County: Yes +5,309Elbert County: Yes +4,764Montrose County: Yes +4,545Delta County: Yes +3,706Morgan County: Yes +3,329Adams County: Yes +3,124Teller County: Yes +3,117Logan County: Yes +3,057Moffat County: Yes +2,171Montezuma County: Yes +2,005Yuma County: Yes +1,602Otero County: Yes +1,393Prowers County: Yes +1,380Park County: Yes +1,370Kit Carson County: Yes +1,307Garfield County: Yes +1,253Rio Blanco County: Yes +1,193Washington County: Yes +1,136Archuleta County: Yes +957Lincoln County: Yes +900Rio Grande County: Yes +866Las Animas County: Yes +820Phillips County: Yes +765Baca County: Yes +751Custer County: Yes +730Alamosa County: Yes +704Grand County: Yes +513Crowley County: Yes +494Bent County: Yes +491Conejos County: Yes +489Cheyenne County: Yes +444Dolores County: Yes +398Sedgwick County: Yes +390Huerfano County: Yes +375Kiowa County: Yes +338Jackson County: Yes +234Saguache County: Yes +120Hinsdale County: Yes +58Mineral County: Yes +54Denver County: No +72,977Boulder County: No +38,905Jefferson County: No +10,051Arapahoe County: No +9,964Larimer County: No +4,462Broomfield County: No +2,985Summit County: No +1,838Pitkin County: No +1,531Eagle County: No +1,343Routt County: No +1,013La Plata County: No +875San Miguel County: No +787Gunnison County: No +762Ouray County: No +131Clear Creek County: No +101Lake County: No +63Chaffee County: No +57San Juan County: No +41Costilla County: No +18Gilpin County: No +5
Yes +148,095 net votes from 44 countiesStatewide Even, a 186 vote marginNo +147,909 net votes from 20 counties

Projected vote

2,661,964 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,331,07550.0%
No1,330,88950.0%
Total2,661,964100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County174,472141,728316,20055.2%
Denver County119,982192,959312,94138.3%
Jefferson County147,670157,721305,39148.4%
Arapahoe County133,163143,127276,29048.2%
Douglas County103,63086,433190,06354.5%
Adams County95,51892,394187,91250.8%
Larimer County90,64395,105185,74848.8%
Boulder County64,854103,759168,61338.5%
Weld County83,17460,781143,95557.8%
Mesa County45,00631,84976,85558.6%
Pueblo County39,31333,36172,67454.1%
Broomfield County17,76620,75138,51746.1%
La Plata County14,68415,55930,24348.6%
Garfield County13,47312,22025,69352.4%
Eagle County11,14912,49223,64147.2%
Fremont County13,6688,35922,02762.1%
Montrose County13,0388,49321,53160.6%
Delta County10,0406,33416,37461.3%
Elbert County10,0925,32815,42065.4%
Summit County6,5718,40914,98043.9%
Teller County8,4565,33913,79561.3%
Routt County6,3897,40213,79146.3%
Montezuma County7,4495,44412,89357.8%
Chaffee County5,8705,92711,79749.8%
Morgan County7,2953,96611,26164.8%
Park County5,7604,39010,15056.7%
Pitkin County4,0335,5649,59742.0%
Gunnison County4,2795,0419,32045.9%
Logan County6,0082,9518,95967.1%
Grand County4,3873,8748,26153.1%
Archuleta County4,3673,4107,77756.2%
Otero County4,5313,1387,66959.1%
Las Animas County3,8132,9936,80656.0%
Alamosa County3,6042,9006,50455.4%
Moffat County3,9331,7625,69569.1%
Clear Creek County2,5602,6615,22149.0%
Rio Grande County3,0422,1765,21858.3%
Prowers County2,9541,5744,52865.2%
San Miguel County1,6702,4574,12740.5%
Yuma County2,8121,2104,02269.9%
Huerfano County2,1011,7263,82754.9%
Conejos County1,9791,4903,46957.0%
Gilpin County1,6731,6783,35149.9%
Ouray County1,5581,6893,24748.0%
Lake County1,5891,6523,24149.0%
Custer County1,9571,2273,18461.5%
Kit Carson County2,2219143,13570.8%
Rio Blanco County2,1459523,09769.3%
Saguache County1,5291,4092,93852.0%
Washington County1,7796432,42273.5%
Lincoln County1,6017012,30269.5%
Bent County1,2577662,02362.1%
Phillips County1,3886232,01169.0%
Costilla County8568741,73049.5%
Baca County1,2384871,72571.8%
Crowley County1,0966021,69864.5%
Dolores County8284301,25865.8%
Sedgwick County7703801,15067.0%
Cheyenne County67122789874.7%
Kiowa County53119372473.3%
Jackson County46423069466.9%
Hinsdale County28122350455.8%
Mineral County25620245855.9%
San Juan County18923041945.1%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposition 136 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org, denvergazette.com. All measures.