2026 state legislative forecast
Massachusetts House forecast
Democrats win control of the Massachusetts House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 160 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
140 to 147Median 144 ยท 81 for a majority
Favored to flip
11to D0to R
After 2024: 134 D, 25 R, 1 other
Environment
D +9.7Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Massachusetts House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 144 D to 15 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4TH HAMPDEN | Kelly W Pease 2024 | Colby Walshe Hoffman vs Kelly W. Pease | R +1.8 | R +0.1 | 51% | 8,769 | 8,783 | 17,820 | Toss up |
| 18TH WORCESTER | Joseph D Mckenna 2024 | Jenifer Heck vs Joseph D. McKenna | R +10.1 | R +0.4 | 48% | 10,183 | 10,261 | 20,755 | Toss up |
| 3RD HAMPDEN | Nicholas A Boldyga 2024 | Thomas D. Hendrickson vs Nicholas A. Boldyga ยท Jason M. Perron (I) | R +12.9 | R +3.2 | 33% | 9,641 | 10,284 | 20,228 | Lean R |
| 5TH BRISTOL | Justin Thurber 2024 | Jamison D. Souza vs Justin E. Thurber | R +7.6 | D +4.0 | 73% | 10,079 | 9,302 | 19,677 | Lean D |
| 8TH BRISTOL | Steven J Ouellette 2024 | Steven J. Ouellette vs Jesse W. St. Gelais | R +11.9 | D +4.7 | 77% | 9,644 | 8,782 | 18,707 | Lean D |
| 7TH BRISTOL | Alan Silvia 2024 | Alan Silvia vs Talos D. Farris | R +4.8 | D +5.0 | 78% | 4,741 | 4,290 | 9,168 | Lean D |
| 36TH MIDDLESEX | Colleen M Garry 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +4.5 | D +5.2 | 80% | 10,209 | 9,198 | 19,702 | Lean D |
| 7TH PLYMOUTH | Alyson M Sullivan Almeida 2024 | Rosemary Aahanna-Hill vs Alyson M. Sullivan-Almeida | R +3.7 | D +6.0 | 82% | 10,203 | 9,040 | 19,536 | Likely D |
| 6TH WORCESTER | John J Marsi Jr 2024 | Jeanne Renaud Costello vs John J. Marsi, Jr. | R +7.4 | R +6.1 | 17% | 7,714 | 8,720 | 16,685 | Likely R |
| 9TH BRISTOL | Christopher M Markey 2024 | Edward M. Pacheco vs Chester M. Tam | R +1.1 | D +8.6 | 90% | 9,594 | 8,071 | 17,934 | Likely D |
| 9TH NORFOLK | Marcus S Vaughn 2024 | Thomas R. Melville vs Marcus S. Vaughn | D +12.7 | D +8.6 | 90% | 11,671 | 9,817 | 21,815 | Likely D |
| 8TH PLYMOUTH | Dennis C Gallagher 2024 | Dennis C. Gallagher vs John Edward Norris | R +3.0 | D +8.8 | 91% | 9,925 | 8,328 | 18,531 | Likely D |
| 5TH PLYMOUTH | David F Decoste 2024 | Lori Childs vs David F. DeCoste | R +0.3 | D +9.4 | 93% | 11,216 | 9,285 | 20,813 | Likely D |
| 6TH PLYMOUTH | Kenneth Peter Sweezey 2024 | Jessica Marie Rushing vs Kenneth Peter Sweezey | D +5.3 | D +9.4 | 92% | 12,427 | 10,287 | 23,060 | Likely D |
| 6TH BRISTOL | Carole A Fiola 2024 | Carole A. Fiola vs Robert G. Anctil | D +0.5 | D +10.2 | 94% | 7,120 | 5,803 | 13,119 | Likely D |
| 7TH WORCESTER | Paul K Frost 2024 | Nicholas Lazzaro vs Paul K. Frost ยท Terry Burke Dotson (I) | R +0.4 | R +10.7 | 6% | 8,818 | 10,923 | 20,042 | Likely R |
| 22ND MIDDLESEX | Marc T Lombardo 2024 | Primary results not posted | D +1.6 | D +11.3 | 95% | 10,225 | 8,155 | 18,660 | Likely D |
| 9TH ESSEX | Donald H Wong 2024 | Peter Meaney vs Donald H. Wong | D +2.3 | D +12.0 | 97% | 10,975 | 8,625 | 19,899 | Likely D |
Projected Massachusetts House vote
160 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 2,163,710 | 79.4% |
| Republicans | 547,968 | 20.1% |
| Independents and others | 15,063 | 0.6% |
| Total | 2,726,738 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.