2026 forecast · Texas Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals, Place 9
Holly Taylor and John Messinger are in a toss up for Texas's judge, court of criminal appeals, place 9.
Holly Taylor vs John Messinger, an open seat. The model has Messinger ahead by 0.9 points, with a 57 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +0.9Polls R +9.0Updated October 22, 2026
Holly Taylor
Democrat
48.1%
4,805,696 projected votes
John Messinger
Republican
49.0%
4,895,817 projected votes
57%Messinger
43%Taylor
Messinger slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Messinger wins about 57 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Taylor +1,444,852 net votes from 29 countiesStatewide R +0.9, a 90,120 vote marginMessinger +1,534,972 net votes from 225 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| John Messinger R | 4,895,817 | 49.0% |
| Holly Taylor D | 4,805,696 | 48.1% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Taylor | Messinger | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,805,694 | 4,895,814 | 297,408 | 9,998,916 | R +0.9 |
| Harris County | 823,084 | 520,094 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +21.9 |
| Dallas County | 534,217 | 220,783 | 23,146 | 778,146 | D +40.3 |
| Tarrant County | 374,062 | 324,883 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +6.8 |
| Bexar County | 424,003 | 240,621 | 20,375 | 684,999 | D +26.8 |
| Travis County | 423,880 | 110,687 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +56.9 |
| Collin County | 215,483 | 209,681 | 13,034 | 438,198 | D +1.3 |
| Denton County | 177,838 | 191,587 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +3.6 |
| Fort Bend County | 171,049 | 126,837 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +14.4 |
| Williamson County | 142,733 | 115,627 | 7,921 | 266,281 | D +10.2 |
| Montgomery County | 70,799 | 174,616 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +41.0 |
| El Paso County | 156,665 | 68,650 | 6,907 | 232,222 | D +37.9 |
| Hidalgo County | 118,067 | 71,837 | 5,822 | 195,726 | D +23.6 |
| Brazoria County | 55,432 | 76,247 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +15.3 |
| Galveston County | 52,461 | 78,417 | 4,012 | 134,890 | R +19.2 |
| Bell County | 51,743 | 59,536 | 3,411 | 114,690 | R +6.8 |
| Nueces County | 55,335 | 53,892 | 3,348 | 112,575 | D +1.3 |
| Hays County | 63,621 | 42,789 | 3,263 | 109,673 | D +19.0 |
| Lubbock County | 35,542 | 69,923 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +31.6 |
| Cameron County | 60,477 | 42,400 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +17.1 |
| Smith County | 25,101 | 62,277 | 2,679 | 90,057 | R +41.3 |
| McLennan County | 32,762 | 53,329 | 2,639 | 88,730 | R +23.2 |
| Comal County | 24,406 | 59,430 | 2,571 | 86,407 | R +40.5 |
| Ellis County | 26,481 | 52,240 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +31.8 |
| Brazos County | 34,387 | 44,012 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +11.9 |
| Jefferson County | 37,640 | 37,047 | 2,289 | 76,976 | D +0.8 |
| Parker County | 12,372 | 59,317 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +63.5 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,993 | 42,177 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +23.0 |
| Johnson County | 16,583 | 49,506 | 2,027 | 68,116 | R +48.3 |
| Webb County | 38,091 | 20,289 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +29.6 |
| Randall County | 11,713 | 43,937 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +56.2 |
| Kaufman County | 18,653 | 35,186 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +29.8 |
| Grayson County | 12,371 | 40,395 | 1,618 | 54,384 | R +51.5 |
| Rockwall County | 15,075 | 34,527 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +38.0 |
| Midland County | 10,344 | 39,025 | 1,514 | 50,883 | R +56.4 |
| Taylor County | 12,708 | 34,844 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +45.2 |
| Gregg County | 11,990 | 27,488 | 1,211 | 40,689 | R +38.1 |
| Wichita County | 12,530 | 26,518 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +34.8 |
| Tom Green County | 11,070 | 27,669 | 1,188 | 39,927 | R +41.6 |
| Hunt County | 8,180 | 29,108 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +54.5 |
| Ector County | 9,110 | 25,843 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +46.5 |
| Bastrop County | 15,578 | 18,603 | 1,047 | 35,228 | R +8.6 |
| Henderson County | 5,937 | 26,472 | 993 | 33,402 | R +61.5 |
| Bowie County | 8,955 | 22,374 | 961 | 32,290 | R +41.6 |
| Hood County | 5,617 | 24,565 | 925 | 31,107 | R +60.9 |
| Victoria County | 9,104 | 20,832 | 917 | 30,853 | R +38.0 |
| Orange County | 5,066 | 24,727 | 913 | 30,706 | R +64.0 |
| Wise County | 4,364 | 25,381 | 911 | 30,656 | R +68.6 |
| Angelina County | 7,500 | 21,380 | 886 | 29,766 | R +46.6 |
| Potter County | 9,018 | 19,631 | 879 | 29,528 | R +35.9 |
| Liberty County | 4,857 | 20,695 | 783 | 26,335 | R +60.1 |
| Harrison County | 6,372 | 18,501 | 763 | 25,636 | R +47.3 |
| Kerr County | 5,781 | 18,572 | 746 | 25,099 | R +51.0 |
| Kendall County | 5,311 | 18,762 | 738 | 24,811 | R +54.2 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,997 | 20,556 | 722 | 24,275 | R +72.3 |
| Walker County | 7,656 | 15,810 | 720 | 24,186 | R +33.7 |
| Burnet County | 5,454 | 17,746 | 710 | 23,910 | R +51.4 |
| Hardin County | 2,816 | 19,965 | 699 | 23,480 | R +73.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,262 | 14,816 | 677 | 22,755 | R +33.2 |
| Coryell County | 7,165 | 14,853 | 676 | 22,694 | R +33.9 |
| Wilson County | 5,462 | 16,425 | 671 | 22,558 | R +48.6 |
| San Patricio County | 7,822 | 13,823 | 664 | 22,309 | R +26.9 |
| Waller County | 7,858 | 13,076 | 642 | 21,576 | R +24.2 |
| Wood County | 3,015 | 17,441 | 627 | 21,083 | R +68.4 |
| Medina County | 6,014 | 14,182 | 619 | 20,815 | R +39.2 |
| Polk County | 4,303 | 15,482 | 607 | 20,392 | R +54.8 |
| Chambers County | 3,270 | 15,556 | 578 | 19,404 | R +63.3 |
| Rusk County | 3,796 | 14,506 | 561 | 18,863 | R +56.8 |
| Lamar County | 3,684 | 14,349 | 553 | 18,586 | R +57.4 |
| Anderson County | 3,571 | 14,096 | 541 | 18,208 | R +57.8 |
| Cherokee County | 3,253 | 13,905 | 526 | 17,684 | R +60.2 |
| Cooke County | 2,724 | 14,238 | 520 | 17,482 | R +65.9 |
| Navarro County | 4,206 | 12,497 | 513 | 17,216 | R +48.2 |
| Upshur County | 2,467 | 13,850 | 499 | 16,816 | R +67.7 |
| Erath County | 2,687 | 12,919 | 478 | 16,084 | R +63.6 |
| Washington County | 3,466 | 11,971 | 474 | 15,911 | R +53.5 |
| Atascosa County | 4,924 | 10,429 | 471 | 15,824 | R +34.8 |
| Brown County | 1,882 | 12,470 | 440 | 14,792 | R +71.6 |
| Caldwell County | 6,856 | 7,234 | 432 | 14,522 | R +2.6 |
| Gillespie County | 2,830 | 11,219 | 430 | 14,479 | R +57.9 |
| Wharton County | 3,647 | 10,363 | 430 | 14,440 | R +46.5 |
| Starr County | 8,574 | 5,352 | 428 | 14,354 | D +22.4 |
| Hopkins County | 2,770 | 11,083 | 425 | 14,278 | R +58.2 |
| Fannin County | 2,198 | 11,397 | 417 | 14,012 | R +65.7 |
| Hill County | 2,496 | 11,083 | 417 | 13,996 | R +61.4 |
| Jasper County | 2,171 | 10,766 | 397 | 13,334 | R +64.5 |
| Maverick County | 7,460 | 5,334 | 392 | 13,186 | D +16.1 |
| Austin County | 2,344 | 10,208 | 385 | 12,937 | R +60.8 |
| Val Verde County | 5,686 | 6,730 | 380 | 12,796 | R +8.2 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,823 | 5,897 | 360 | 12,080 | R +0.6 |
| Llano County | 2,379 | 9,322 | 359 | 12,060 | R +57.6 |
| Cass County | 2,041 | 9,505 | 354 | 11,900 | R +62.7 |
| Matagorda County | 3,044 | 8,384 | 350 | 11,778 | R +45.3 |
| Grimes County | 2,191 | 9,147 | 348 | 11,686 | R +59.5 |
| Fayette County | 2,192 | 9,115 | 347 | 11,654 | R +59.4 |
| Bandera County | 2,139 | 9,099 | 344 | 11,582 | R +60.1 |
| Aransas County | 2,461 | 8,562 | 338 | 11,361 | R +53.7 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,729 | 9,239 | 337 | 11,305 | R +66.4 |
| San Jacinto County | 2,039 | 8,740 | 331 | 11,110 | R +60.3 |
| Milam County | 2,211 | 7,241 | 290 | 9,742 | R +51.6 |
| Lampasas County | 1,918 | 7,412 | 286 | 9,616 | R +57.1 |
| Panola County | 1,591 | 7,736 | 286 | 9,613 | R +63.9 |
| Kleberg County | 4,670 | 4,606 | 284 | 9,560 | D +0.7 |
| Montague County | 959 | 7,976 | 274 | 9,209 | R +76.2 |
| Lavaca County | 1,077 | 7,772 | 271 | 9,120 | R +73.4 |
| Titus County | 2,015 | 6,665 | 266 | 8,946 | R +52.0 |
| Uvalde County | 3,440 | 5,141 | 263 | 8,844 | R +19.2 |
| Howard County | 1,802 | 6,634 | 258 | 8,694 | R +55.6 |
| Bee County | 2,910 | 5,466 | 257 | 8,633 | R +29.6 |
| Colorado County | 1,829 | 6,524 | 256 | 8,609 | R +54.5 |
| Hale County | 1,787 | 6,423 | 251 | 8,461 | R +54.8 |
| Shelby County | 1,500 | 6,699 | 251 | 8,450 | R +61.5 |
| Houston County | 1,839 | 6,293 | 250 | 8,382 | R +53.1 |
| Tyler County | 1,099 | 7,030 | 250 | 8,379 | R +70.8 |
| Bosque County | 1,410 | 6,659 | 247 | 8,316 | R +63.1 |
| Limestone County | 1,829 | 5,965 | 239 | 8,033 | R +51.5 |
| Burleson County | 1,353 | 6,252 | 233 | 7,838 | R +62.5 |
| Freestone County | 1,262 | 6,289 | 232 | 7,783 | R +64.6 |
| Leon County | 774 | 6,639 | 227 | 7,640 | R +76.8 |
| Lee County | 1,412 | 5,619 | 215 | 7,246 | R +58.1 |
| Eastland County | 833 | 6,174 | 215 | 7,222 | R +74.0 |
| Young County | 836 | 6,153 | 215 | 7,204 | R +73.8 |
| Hutchinson County | 747 | 6,237 | 214 | 7,198 | R +76.3 |
| Blanco County | 1,710 | 5,181 | 211 | 7,102 | R +48.9 |
| DeWitt County | 1,221 | 5,646 | 211 | 7,078 | R +62.5 |
| Robertson County | 1,767 | 4,952 | 206 | 6,925 | R +46.0 |
| Calhoun County | 1,764 | 4,896 | 204 | 6,864 | R +45.6 |
| Hockley County | 1,170 | 5,468 | 204 | 6,842 | R +62.8 |
| Gray County | 642 | 5,934 | 201 | 6,777 | R +78.1 |
| Gonzales County | 1,466 | 4,958 | 197 | 6,621 | R +52.7 |
| Jones County | 907 | 5,351 | 192 | 6,450 | R +68.9 |
| Trinity County | 1,069 | 5,012 | 187 | 6,268 | R +62.9 |
| Callahan County | 627 | 5,264 | 180 | 6,071 | R +76.4 |
| Falls County | 1,609 | 3,940 | 171 | 5,720 | R +40.8 |
| Rains County | 755 | 4,760 | 169 | 5,684 | R +70.5 |
| Comanche County | 733 | 4,684 | 166 | 5,583 | R +70.8 |
| Jackson County | 820 | 4,534 | 164 | 5,518 | R +67.3 |
| Willacy County | 3,110 | 2,076 | 159 | 5,345 | D +19.4 |
| Gaines County | 419 | 4,590 | 153 | 5,162 | R +80.8 |
| Scurry County | 656 | 4,289 | 152 | 5,097 | R +71.3 |
| Clay County | 532 | 4,369 | 150 | 5,051 | R +76.0 |
| Newton County | 901 | 3,979 | 150 | 5,030 | R +61.2 |
| Andrews County | 663 | 4,188 | 148 | 4,999 | R +70.5 |
| Red River County | 992 | 3,801 | 147 | 4,940 | R +56.9 |
| Sabine County | 518 | 4,172 | 144 | 4,834 | R +75.6 |
| Karnes County | 1,106 | 3,505 | 141 | 4,752 | R +50.5 |
| Frio County | 2,363 | 2,227 | 140 | 4,730 | D +2.9 |
| Madison County | 852 | 3,737 | 140 | 4,729 | R +61.0 |
| Morris County | 1,205 | 3,320 | 139 | 4,664 | R +45.4 |
| Nolan County | 932 | 3,571 | 138 | 4,641 | R +56.9 |
| Moore County | 768 | 3,704 | 137 | 4,609 | R +63.7 |
| Camp County | 1,066 | 3,366 | 136 | 4,568 | R +50.3 |
| Franklin County | 692 | 3,700 | 134 | 4,526 | R +66.4 |
| Live Oak County | 687 | 3,665 | 133 | 4,485 | R +66.4 |
| Somervell County | 729 | 3,614 | 133 | 4,476 | R +64.5 |
| Archer County | 418 | 3,759 | 129 | 4,306 | R +77.6 |
| Brewster County | 2,145 | 1,975 | 126 | 4,246 | D +4.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,312 | 2,728 | 124 | 4,164 | R +34.0 |
| Wilbarger County | 808 | 3,105 | 119 | 4,032 | R +57.0 |
| Zapata County | 2,188 | 1,715 | 119 | 4,022 | D +11.7 |
| Marion County | 1,000 | 2,898 | 119 | 4,017 | R +47.3 |
| Deaf Smith County | 965 | 2,872 | 117 | 3,954 | R +48.2 |
| Duval County | 2,314 | 1,507 | 117 | 3,938 | D +20.5 |
| Hamilton County | 566 | 3,163 | 115 | 3,844 | R +67.6 |
| Lamb County | 655 | 2,936 | 110 | 3,701 | R +61.6 |
| Runnels County | 401 | 3,150 | 109 | 3,660 | R +75.1 |
| Coleman County | 367 | 3,133 | 108 | 3,608 | R +76.7 |
| Goliad County | 747 | 2,674 | 105 | 3,526 | R +54.6 |
| Jack County | 290 | 3,122 | 106 | 3,518 | R +80.5 |
| Stephens County | 283 | 2,968 | 100 | 3,351 | R +80.1 |
| San Augustine County | 735 | 2,463 | 98 | 3,296 | R +52.4 |
| Dawson County | 647 | 2,478 | 95 | 3,220 | R +56.8 |
| Ward County | 600 | 2,468 | 94 | 3,162 | R +59.1 |
| Terry County | 560 | 2,489 | 93 | 3,142 | R +61.4 |
| Dimmit County | 2,006 | 1,025 | 93 | 3,124 | D +31.4 |
| Zavala County | 2,117 | 860 | 91 | 3,068 | D +41.0 |
| McCulloch County | 414 | 2,502 | 90 | 3,006 | R +69.5 |
| Reeves County | 1,296 | 1,620 | 89 | 3,005 | R +10.8 |
| Carson County | 253 | 2,353 | 80 | 2,686 | R +78.2 |
| Refugio County | 826 | 1,760 | 79 | 2,665 | R +35.1 |
| Ochiltree County | 231 | 2,272 | 77 | 2,580 | R +79.1 |
| Mitchell County | 330 | 2,022 | 72 | 2,424 | R +69.8 |
| San Saba County | 242 | 2,094 | 71 | 2,407 | R +76.9 |
| Brooks County | 1,533 | 750 | 69 | 2,352 | D +33.3 |
| Mills County | 232 | 2,012 | 68 | 2,312 | R +77.0 |
| Parmer County | 325 | 1,886 | 68 | 2,279 | R +68.5 |
| Delta County | 363 | 1,825 | 66 | 2,254 | R +64.8 |
| Mason County | 405 | 1,724 | 65 | 2,194 | R +60.1 |
| Childress County | 242 | 1,794 | 62 | 2,098 | R +74.0 |
| Kimble County | 238 | 1,793 | 62 | 2,093 | R +74.3 |
| Lynn County | 315 | 1,711 | 62 | 2,088 | R +66.8 |
| Swisher County | 411 | 1,601 | 62 | 2,074 | R +57.4 |
| Haskell County | 301 | 1,663 | 60 | 2,024 | R +67.3 |
| Yoakum County | 281 | 1,680 | 60 | 2,021 | R +69.2 |
| La Salle County | 974 | 972 | 59 | 2,005 | D +0.1 |
| Wheeler County | 153 | 1,736 | 57 | 1,946 | R +81.3 |
| Presidio County | 1,409 | 430 | 57 | 1,896 | D +51.6 |
| Castro County | 377 | 1,419 | 55 | 1,851 | R +56.3 |
| Hartley County | 162 | 1,612 | 54 | 1,828 | R +79.3 |
| Floyd County | 307 | 1,385 | 52 | 1,744 | R +61.8 |
| Hansford County | 130 | 1,562 | 52 | 1,744 | R +82.1 |
| Winkler County | 280 | 1,404 | 52 | 1,736 | R +64.8 |
| Martin County | 221 | 1,457 | 52 | 1,730 | R +71.5 |
| Bailey County | 324 | 1,301 | 49 | 1,674 | R +58.3 |
| Crosby County | 411 | 1,134 | 47 | 1,592 | R +45.4 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,026 | 498 | 46 | 1,570 | D +33.6 |
| Real County | 232 | 1,287 | 46 | 1,565 | R +67.4 |
| Fisher County | 286 | 1,223 | 47 | 1,556 | R +60.2 |
| Coke County | 156 | 1,352 | 46 | 1,554 | R +77.0 |
| Baylor County | 159 | 1,286 | 43 | 1,488 | R +75.7 |
| Garza County | 225 | 1,214 | 43 | 1,482 | R +66.7 |
| Shackelford County | 125 | 1,275 | 44 | 1,444 | R +79.7 |
| Hemphill County | 177 | 1,217 | 42 | 1,436 | R +72.4 |
| Donley County | 146 | 1,233 | 41 | 1,420 | R +76.5 |
| Dallam County | 152 | 1,186 | 41 | 1,379 | R +75.0 |
| Kinney County | 344 | 913 | 39 | 1,296 | R +44.0 |
| Crockett County | 315 | 897 | 38 | 1,250 | R +46.6 |
| Crane County | 182 | 1,018 | 37 | 1,237 | R +67.5 |
| Sutton County | 223 | 971 | 36 | 1,230 | R +60.8 |
| Hardeman County | 172 | 1,006 | 36 | 1,214 | R +68.7 |
| Knox County | 193 | 950 | 35 | 1,178 | R +64.3 |
| Upton County | 141 | 965 | 34 | 1,140 | R +72.3 |
| Concho County | 164 | 924 | 34 | 1,122 | R +67.7 |
| Lipscomb County | 101 | 947 | 32 | 1,080 | R +78.3 |
| Jeff Davis County | 443 | 578 | 31 | 1,052 | R +12.9 |
| Collingsworth County | 120 | 878 | 30 | 1,028 | R +73.8 |
| Hall County | 135 | 860 | 30 | 1,025 | R +70.7 |
| Schleicher County | 191 | 789 | 30 | 1,010 | R +59.2 |
| Armstrong County | 73 | 859 | 28 | 960 | R +81.8 |
| Hudspeth County | 308 | 608 | 28 | 944 | R +31.8 |
| Menard County | 147 | 699 | 26 | 872 | R +63.3 |
| Dickens County | 120 | 694 | 25 | 839 | R +68.5 |
| Oldham County | 71 | 725 | 24 | 820 | R +79.7 |
| Reagan County | 129 | 666 | 25 | 820 | R +65.5 |
| Sherman County | 63 | 727 | 24 | 814 | R +81.6 |
| Throckmorton County | 66 | 668 | 22 | 756 | R +79.5 |
| Culberson County | 356 | 359 | 21 | 736 | R +0.4 |
| Cochran County | 126 | 587 | 22 | 735 | R +62.7 |
| Irion County | 88 | 598 | 20 | 706 | R +72.2 |
| Edwards County | 88 | 551 | 19 | 658 | R +70.3 |
| Briscoe County | 52 | 559 | 19 | 630 | R +80.5 |
| Stonewall County | 96 | 484 | 18 | 598 | R +64.9 |
| Motley County | 36 | 519 | 17 | 572 | R +84.5 |
| Cottle County | 82 | 466 | 18 | 566 | R +67.9 |
| Glasscock County | 33 | 500 | 16 | 549 | R +85.1 |
| Sterling County | 33 | 458 | 15 | 506 | R +84.0 |
| Foard County | 93 | 396 | 15 | 504 | R +60.0 |
| Roberts County | 12 | 404 | 13 | 429 | R +91.4 |
| Terrell County | 99 | 275 | 12 | 386 | R +45.7 |
| Kent County | 42 | 322 | 12 | 376 | R +74.4 |
| Borden County | 18 | 294 | 10 | 322 | R +85.8 |
| McMullen County | 25 | 239 | 8 | 272 | R +78.8 |
| King County | 5 | 101 | 4 | 110 | R +87.5 |
| Kenedy County | 23 | 41 | 2 | 66 | R +26.7 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +73.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.9 and R +7.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +1.0 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +0.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.9 and R +7.7.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Taylor | Messinger | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 45.5 | 54.5 | R +9.0 |