2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

Lets Committee for Public Counsel Services employees, including public defenders, unionize and bargain collectively, and raises bar advocate pay. The forecast has Yes at 63.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteLaborUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

63.4%

80% range 58 to 69

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

62.4%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 67.6% Yes
Polls: 62.4% Yes
Forecast: 63.4% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Labor Unions for Public Counsel Workers Rights supports; no organized opposition filed; supporters spent at least $1M.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

92%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Question 2 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +721,536 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +26.8, a 721,536 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

2,687,744 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	1,704,640	63.4%
No	983,104	36.6%
Total	2,687,744	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Middlesex County	433,152	207,375	640,527	67.6%
Worcester County	186,617	132,172	318,789	58.5%
Essex County	188,416	117,251	305,667	61.6%
Norfolk County	192,350	107,160	299,510	64.2%
Suffolk County	177,575	68,949	246,524	72.0%
Plymouth County	131,555	94,568	226,123	58.2%
Bristol County	115,056	90,720	205,776	55.9%
Hampden County	91,918	66,015	157,933	58.2%
Barnstable County	72,239	44,766	117,005	61.7%
Hampshire County	47,378	21,795	69,173	68.5%
Berkshire County	35,975	17,138	53,113	67.7%
Franklin County	21,938	10,725	32,663	67.2%
Dukes County	6,873	2,676	9,549	72.0%
Nantucket County	3,598	1,794	5,392	66.7%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

4 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe	500 LV	2026-10-18	56.4	25.2	17.2	62.9%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	53	19	14	67.1%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	48	25	26	57.2%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	45	24	18	58.6%

How this is built

Question 2 is forecast as a labor measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.