2026 forecast · Nebraska Treasurer
Joey Spellerberg is all but certain to win Nebraska's treasurer race.
Daniel Ebers vs Joey Spellerberg, with Joey Spellerberg running again. The model has Spellerberg ahead by 11.9 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.
Likely RModel R +11.9Updated October 22, 2026
Daniel Ebers
Democrat
42.7%
331,180 projected votes
Joey Spellerberg
Republican
54.6%
423,267 projected votes
98%Spellerberg
2%Ebers
Spellerberg all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Spellerberg wins about 98 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ebers +74,007 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide R +11.9, a 92,086 vote marginSpellerberg +166,093 net votes from 90 counties
Projected statewide vote
775,141 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Spellerberg R | 423,267 | 54.6% |
| Daniel Ebers D | 331,180 | 42.7% |
| Other candidates | 20,693 | 2.7% |
| Total | 775,141 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
93 counties| County | Ebers | Spellerberg | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 331,184 | 423,270 | 20,687 | 775,141 | R +11.9 |
| Douglas County | 135,131 | 83,216 | 5,989 | 224,336 | D +23.1 |
| Lancaster County | 74,762 | 53,720 | 3,524 | 132,006 | D +15.9 |
| Sarpy County | 38,267 | 37,217 | 2,071 | 77,555 | D +1.4 |
| Buffalo County | 5,623 | 12,861 | 507 | 18,991 | R +38.1 |
| Hall County | 5,812 | 12,148 | 492 | 18,452 | R +34.3 |
| Lincoln County | 3,297 | 10,025 | 366 | 13,688 | R +49.1 |
| Dodge County | 4,779 | 8,265 | 357 | 13,401 | R +26.0 |
| Madison County | 2,841 | 9,992 | 351 | 13,184 | R +54.2 |
| Platte County | 2,362 | 10,149 | 344 | 12,855 | R +60.6 |
| Cass County | 4,358 | 7,974 | 338 | 12,670 | R +28.5 |
| Scotts Bluff County | 3,380 | 8,448 | 324 | 12,152 | R +41.7 |
| Adams County | 3,651 | 7,936 | 318 | 11,905 | R +36.0 |
| Saunders County | 3,109 | 7,336 | 287 | 10,732 | R +39.4 |
| Washington County | 3,010 | 6,689 | 266 | 9,965 | R +36.9 |
| Gage County | 2,869 | 5,947 | 241 | 9,057 | R +34.0 |
| Seward County | 1,905 | 5,489 | 203 | 7,597 | R +47.2 |
| Dawson County | 1,548 | 5,140 | 184 | 6,872 | R +52.3 |
| Otoe County | 2,066 | 4,346 | 176 | 6,588 | R +34.6 |
| York County | 1,178 | 4,406 | 153 | 5,737 | R +56.3 |
| Dakota County | 1,475 | 3,244 | 129 | 4,848 | R +36.5 |
| Custer County | 756 | 3,941 | 128 | 4,825 | R +66.0 |
| Hamilton County | 838 | 3,571 | 121 | 4,530 | R +60.3 |
| Saline County | 1,580 | 2,819 | 121 | 4,520 | R +27.4 |
| Red Willow County | 808 | 3,585 | 120 | 4,513 | R +61.5 |
| Holt County | 589 | 3,699 | 118 | 4,406 | R +70.6 |
| Phelps County | 665 | 3,351 | 110 | 4,126 | R +65.1 |
| Cedar County | 632 | 3,340 | 108 | 4,080 | R +66.4 |
| Box Butte County | 952 | 2,868 | 105 | 3,925 | R +48.8 |
| Knox County | 692 | 3,091 | 103 | 3,886 | R +61.7 |
| Butler County | 766 | 2,974 | 103 | 3,843 | R +57.5 |
| Cheyenne County | 656 | 3,043 | 101 | 3,800 | R +62.8 |
| Cuming County | 622 | 2,931 | 97 | 3,650 | R +63.3 |
| Merrick County | 663 | 2,885 | 97 | 3,645 | R +61.0 |
| Wayne County | 888 | 2,560 | 94 | 3,542 | R +47.2 |
| Dawes County | 1,088 | 2,256 | 92 | 3,436 | R +34.0 |
| Keith County | 633 | 2,711 | 91 | 3,435 | R +60.5 |
| Richardson County | 920 | 2,281 | 88 | 3,289 | R +41.4 |
| Pierce County | 371 | 2,809 | 88 | 3,268 | R +74.6 |
| Burt County | 848 | 2,116 | 81 | 3,045 | R +41.6 |
| Jefferson County | 787 | 2,124 | 80 | 2,991 | R +44.7 |
| Kearney County | 590 | 2,238 | 77 | 2,905 | R +56.7 |
| Clay County | 529 | 2,264 | 76 | 2,869 | R +60.5 |
| Howard County | 600 | 2,170 | 75 | 2,845 | R +55.2 |
| Colfax County | 659 | 2,094 | 76 | 2,829 | R +50.7 |
| Antelope County | 308 | 2,407 | 74 | 2,789 | R +75.3 |
| Nemaha County | 775 | 1,916 | 74 | 2,765 | R +41.3 |
| Boone County | 456 | 2,144 | 72 | 2,672 | R +63.2 |
| Stanton County | 469 | 2,106 | 71 | 2,646 | R +61.9 |
| Cherry County | 312 | 2,219 | 70 | 2,601 | R +73.3 |
| Fillmore County | 611 | 1,891 | 69 | 2,571 | R +49.8 |
| Dixon County | 519 | 1,831 | 64 | 2,414 | R +54.3 |
| Thayer County | 445 | 1,863 | 63 | 2,371 | R +59.8 |
| Polk County | 420 | 1,848 | 62 | 2,330 | R +61.3 |
| Morrill County | 345 | 1,681 | 56 | 2,082 | R +64.2 |
| Furnas County | 312 | 1,684 | 55 | 2,051 | R +66.9 |
| Sheridan County | 342 | 1,607 | 53 | 2,002 | R +63.2 |
| Valley County | 372 | 1,510 | 51 | 1,933 | R +58.9 |
| Johnson County | 580 | 1,208 | 49 | 1,837 | R +34.1 |
| Nuckolls County | 307 | 1,460 | 49 | 1,816 | R +63.5 |
| Thurston County | 683 | 966 | 45 | 1,694 | R +16.7 |
| Chase County | 207 | 1,387 | 43 | 1,637 | R +72.1 |
| Harlan County | 274 | 1,201 | 40 | 1,515 | R +61.2 |
| Kimball County | 212 | 1,215 | 39 | 1,466 | R +68.4 |
| Webster County | 256 | 1,156 | 39 | 1,451 | R +62.0 |
| Nance County | 347 | 1,052 | 39 | 1,438 | R +49.0 |
| Sherman County | 325 | 1,010 | 36 | 1,371 | R +50.0 |
| Brown County | 185 | 1,122 | 36 | 1,343 | R +69.8 |
| Franklin County | 220 | 1,063 | 35 | 1,318 | R +64.0 |
| Perkins County | 187 | 996 | 32 | 1,215 | R +66.6 |
| Frontier County | 176 | 987 | 32 | 1,195 | R +67.8 |
| Hitchcock County | 159 | 981 | 31 | 1,171 | R +70.2 |
| Pawnee County | 254 | 876 | 31 | 1,161 | R +53.6 |
| Greeley County | 211 | 825 | 29 | 1,065 | R +57.7 |
| Garden County | 136 | 775 | 25 | 936 | R +68.3 |
| Gosper County | 170 | 734 | 25 | 929 | R +60.8 |
| Boyd County | 124 | 771 | 25 | 920 | R +70.3 |
| Garfield County | 105 | 713 | 22 | 840 | R +72.3 |
| Deuel County | 115 | 691 | 22 | 828 | R +69.6 |
| Dundy County | 98 | 680 | 21 | 799 | R +72.9 |
| Rock County | 82 | 575 | 18 | 675 | R +73.0 |
| Sioux County | 72 | 468 | 15 | 555 | R +71.3 |
| Hayes County | 28 | 385 | 11 | 424 | R +84.1 |
| Keya Paha County | 38 | 362 | 11 | 411 | R +78.9 |
| Wheeler County | 57 | 299 | 10 | 366 | R +66.0 |
| Logan County | 36 | 315 | 9 | 360 | R +77.5 |
| Hooker County | 60 | 288 | 10 | 358 | R +63.8 |
| Banner County | 47 | 299 | 10 | 356 | R +70.8 |
| Thomas County | 36 | 280 | 8 | 324 | R +75.4 |
| Loup County | 63 | 246 | 8 | 317 | R +57.8 |
| Grant County | 20 | 281 | 8 | 309 | R +84.4 |
| Arthur County | 21 | 225 | 7 | 253 | R +80.4 |
| McPherson County | 23 | 211 | 7 | 241 | R +78.1 |
| Blaine County | 29 | 191 | 6 | 226 | R +71.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +4.3 and R +19.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +1.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +26.7 |
| Blend of every leg | R +9.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +12.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +11.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +4.3 and R +19.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ebers | Spellerberg | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||