Final forecast archive · frozen November 3, 2026
The 2026 forecast, exactly as published.
These are the files the site served on Election Day, copied byte for byte and never edited since. The last one was written at 8:49 AM ET on November 3, 9 hours and 10 minutes before the first polls closed. Each file carries a SHA-256 fingerprint: change a single character and the fingerprint changes, so anyone can check that what is here is what we published.
The timestamp
Before the polls closedFingerprint of the whole archive
aee837db06f45f1283efd11f98998423c628f9e78dc9b0bf7e693ab971877f85
The SHA-256 of the fingerprint list, one line per file in the order below.
Check it yourself
- Download any file in the table below.
- Fingerprint it:
sha256sum model.jsonon Linux orshasum -a 256 model.jsonon a Mac. It matches the table. - Open the file's history on GitHub. The commit from November 3 holds the same bytes, with the commit time on it, and the live copy on the forecast pages has not changed since.
- Look up the forecast pages on the Internet Archive, an outside copy of what the site showed before Election Day.
The final call
Democrats favored for the Senate, the House and most governorships
The Democratic chance of control on every update from October 4 to Election Day, as the forecast pages showed it.
Senate55 D · 1 I · 44 RThe winner picked in every race plus seats not up, with D 81% to win control. Count 55 D · 45 R, seat miss R 1, control called right.
House247 D · 188 RThe winner picked in every race plus seats not up, with D 91% to win control. Count 262 D · 173 R, seat miss D 15, control called right.
Governors29 D · 21 RThe winner picked in every race plus seats not up, with D 91% to win control. Count 30 D · 20 R, seat miss D 1, control called right.
Races in the archive506Senate, House and governor, plus every legislative chamber, statewide office and ballot measure in the files below
Chance of Democratic control, October 4 to November 3
Senate
Every Senate race, final forecast and result
AlabamaRightForecastR +12.6 · R 91%ResultR +9.4AlaskaNot scoredForecastD +5.1 · D 75%Result, countingR +0.9ArkansasRightForecastR +9.2 · R 85%ResultR +11.8ColoradoRightForecastD +22.3 · D 97%ResultD +25.0DelawareRightForecastD +28.3 · D 98%ResultD +27.1FloridaRightForecastR +3.7 · R 68%ResultR +2.9GeorgiaRightForecastD +12.8 · D 96%ResultD +18.0IdahoRightForecastR +18.7 · R 97%ResultR +23.3IllinoisRightForecastD +17.8 · D 95%ResultD +27.6IowaRightForecastD +3.7 · D 68%ResultD +4.2KansasRightForecastD +5.0 · D 72%ResultD +5.0KentuckyRightForecastR +10.6 · R 86%ResultR +12.1LouisianaRightForecastR +5.8 · R 74%ResultR +1.8MaineRightForecastD +5.7 · D 78%ResultD +8.1MassachusettsRightForecastD +33.5 · D 99%ResultD +32.1MichiganRightForecastD +8.8 · D 88%ResultD +6.6MinnesotaRightForecastD +10.9 · D 92%ResultD +10.2MississippiMissedForecastR +0.5 · R 53%Result, countingEvenMontanaRightForecastR +17.6 · R 97%ResultR +10.0NebraskaMissedForecastI +2.0 · I 59%ResultR +6.5New HampshireRightForecastD +12.6 · D 91%ResultD +9.4New JerseyRightForecastD +26.2 · D 98%ResultD +27.2New MexicoRightForecastD +21.5 · D 98%ResultD +26.3North CarolinaRightForecastD +11.1 · D 94%ResultD +19.6OhioRightForecastD +6.7 · D 84%ResultD +4.2OklahomaRightForecastR +18.4 · R 97%ResultR +18.1OregonRightForecastD +29.3 · D 99%ResultD +16.1Rhode IslandRightForecastD +40.2 · D 99%ResultD +37.2South CarolinaRightForecastD +1.1 · D 53%ResultD +4.5South DakotaRightForecastR +12.8 · R 90%ResultR +21.3TennesseeRightForecastR +18.9 · R 98%ResultR +12.2TexasRightForecastD +3.7 · D 70%ResultD +9.7VirginiaRightForecastD +20.8 · D 99%ResultD +22.2West VirginiaRightForecastR +27.7 · R 98%ResultR +20.4WyomingRightForecastR +38.4 · R 99%ResultR +30.5
Governors
Every governor race, final forecast and result
AlabamaRightForecastR +10.8 · R 96%ResultR +4.1AlaskaNot scoredForecastD +8.1 · D 95%Result, countingD +19.4ArizonaRightForecastD +9.5 · D 96%ResultD +14.6ArkansasRightForecastR +13.9 · R 98%ResultR +15.3CaliforniaRightForecastD +26.1 · D 100%ResultD +28.0ColoradoRightForecastD +20.2 · D 100%ResultD +27.6ConnecticutRightForecastD +19.0 · D 100%ResultD +16.7FloridaRightForecastR +1.6 · R 62%ResultR +1.3GeorgiaRightForecastD +3.9 · D 77%ResultD +8.6HawaiiRightForecastD +35.1 · D 100%ResultD +49.9IdahoRightForecastR +19.5 · R 100%ResultR +25.2IllinoisRightForecastD +24.9 · D 100%ResultD +27.5IowaRightForecastD +7.9 · D 93%ResultD +11.1KansasRightForecastD +3.8 · D 72%Result, countingD +0.5MaineRightForecastD +12.5 · D 98%ResultD +18.7MarylandRightForecastD +31.9 · D 100%ResultD +29.4MassachusettsRightForecastD +25.1 · D 100%ResultD +28.9MichiganRightForecastD +14.7 · D 99%ResultD +10.3MinnesotaRightForecastD +14.8 · D 99%ResultD +12.8NebraskaRightForecastR +3.6 · R 76%ResultR +8.2NevadaRightForecastD +6.1 · D 85%ResultD +7.2New HampshireRightForecastR +4.8 · R 78%Result, countingR +9.1New MexicoRightForecastD +11.6 · D 98%ResultD +14.5New YorkRightForecastD +16.0 · D 100%ResultD +19.8OhioRightForecastD +5.7 · D 86%ResultD +7.2OklahomaRightForecastR +5.8 · R 79%ResultR +6.1OregonRightForecastD +4.3 · D 77%ResultD +6.3PennsylvaniaRightForecastD +25.6 · D 100%ResultD +21.5Rhode IslandNot scoredForecastD +14.1 · D 99%ResultD +44.3South CarolinaRightForecastR +7.2 · R 85%ResultR +4.5South DakotaRightForecastR +14.7 · R 96%ResultR +27.0TennesseeRightForecastR +9.1 · R 93%ResultR +2.5TexasMissedForecastR +0.2 · R 52%ResultD +7.0VermontRightForecastR +5.1 · R 80%ResultR +6.6WisconsinRightForecastD +6.5 · D 85%ResultD +8.4WyomingRightForecastR +29.6 · R 100%ResultR +53.9
The files
Every file, with its fingerprint
Open reads the frozen copy. History opens the live file's commits, where the November 3 version carries the same fingerprint.
| File | What it holds | Size | Written | SHA-256 | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| model.json | Senate, House and governor races and chamber odds | 785 KB | Nov 3, 8:49 AM ET | cc9fb4f5f08330a179caa7bf39dc09ebeb957c0061acc366537dc5056531d830 | Open · History |
| counties.json | County forecasts for the statewide races | 447 KB | Nov 3, 8:14 AM ET | 8341604af4aadf185f5f32b200c64fde9b571f89bdf6f28390e63d418b2ed96c | Open · History |
| downballot.json | Statewide offices below governor | 263 KB | Nov 3, 8:14 AM ET | 1b77a4047e5cda339ee75b0f64df35e2daa5a7e010cb35af42681acafaae3c9f | Open · History |
| downballot_counties.json | County forecasts for the statewide offices | 629 KB | Nov 3, 8:14 AM ET | c3fe4bf8680b62f8fdcee50747d74624e3857cc9cdfd04f39433721ce99ca254 | Open · History |
| measures.json | Statewide ballot measures | 330 KB | Nov 3, 8:16 AM ET | b660f7ae5610ed0d43969156dbad2c957350305f386b6d54a220f67f5d1a3817 | Open · History |
| measures_counties.json | County forecasts for the ballot measures | 218 KB | Nov 3, 8:16 AM ET | c33989743f6498da5f464ab3179b6c1e944287c9c77e3103be8f7ce0fd66d2d8 | Open · History |
| measures_hub.json | Ballot measure summary | 18 KB | Nov 3, 8:16 AM ET | d09663736dfc4637ee2806e31c8af55510246ac36e1ada879bf771014b5d1a3c | Open · History |
| statehouse.json | Every state legislative district | 2.01 MB | Nov 3, 8:15 AM ET | 80becc53bb060aaaf6cf00e6c099cb260b26f2b5280b69ecc3051a6db94dfaa0 | Open · History |
| statehouse_hub.json | Every state legislative chamber | 188 KB | Nov 3, 8:15 AM ET | 3347320006ee9f1ab5b2102cbbca38bed9b5f2635d4f7fe9cab78074d5a4a5e1 | Open · History |
| polls_published.json | The polls in the final averages | 85 KB | Nov 3, 8:14 AM ET | 14fd268191df9effb25ec2c8023d2dfe3539eb0703902d5a1e1f134d7476fb2b | Open · History |
| earlyvote_adjust.json | The early vote adjustment applied on Election Day | 15 KB | Nov 3, 8:14 AM ET | 85cb4b2459972a9ff0cbf405b1a5c72418702dfe3f533dc7d5856cd7425c3842 | Open · History |
| other_races.json | Courts, mayors and local races | 156 KB | Oct 19, 5:38 PM ET | a9c84865bfff5aa3f5c5adbc0b03888f6f677a798333500e3577ed84506d867b | Open · History |
| sims_2026-11-03.json | The Election Day simulation run | 60 KB | Nov 3, 8:14 AM ET | f02d454bc05c6d262a0eca670bafdc6cd63aab7152181311120b68a8c1ff329f | Open · History |
| sims_index.json | Chamber odds on every archived day since October 3 | 14 KB | Nov 3, 8:14 AM ET | 74012a7861a047515189b1adba17d27de1981f217b6843ff7f9edaee7ab46206 | Open · History |
The courts, mayors and local file shows October 19 because those forecasts were final then and were not rebuilt on Election Day. The House, legislative and county results are graded in the accuracy report.