2026 forecast · Georgia Public Service Commission, District 5
Shelia Edwards is favored to win Georgia's public service commission, district 5 race.
Shelia Edwards vs Josh Tolbert, an open seat. The model has Edwards ahead by 5.3 points, with a 83 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +5.3Polls D +2.6Updated October 22, 2026
Shelia Edwards
Democrat
51.5%
2,403,561 projected votes
Josh Tolbert
Republican
46.1%
2,154,113 projected votes
83%Edwards
17%Tolbert
Edwards favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Edwards wins about 83 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Edwards +1,089,779 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide D +5.3, a 249,445 vote marginTolbert +840,334 net votes from 126 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,670,238 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Shelia Edwards D | 2,403,561 | 51.5% |
| Josh Tolbert R | 2,154,113 | 46.1% |
| Thomas Blooming | 112,563 | 2.4% |
| Total | 4,670,238 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
159 counties| County | Edwards | Tolbert | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,403,558 | 2,154,113 | 112,571 | 4,670,242 | D +5.3 |
| Fulton County | 378,036 | 102,421 | 11,867 | 492,324 | D +56.0 |
| Gwinnett County | 228,909 | 124,535 | 8,730 | 362,174 | D +28.8 |
| Cobb County | 216,194 | 130,288 | 8,558 | 355,040 | D +24.2 |
| DeKalb County | 293,990 | 41,222 | 8,278 | 343,490 | D +73.6 |
| Cherokee County | 40,940 | 92,446 | 3,294 | 136,680 | R +37.7 |
| Chatham County | 79,950 | 45,781 | 3,105 | 128,836 | D +26.5 |
| Forsyth County | 37,770 | 76,115 | 2,813 | 116,698 | R +32.9 |
| Henry County | 76,479 | 33,691 | 2,721 | 112,891 | D +37.9 |
| Clayton County | 96,960 | 9,837 | 2,638 | 109,435 | D +79.6 |
| Hall County | 22,169 | 61,949 | 2,078 | 86,196 | R +46.1 |
| Richmond County | 58,681 | 20,263 | 1,950 | 80,894 | D +47.5 |
| Paulding County | 30,568 | 46,652 | 1,907 | 79,127 | R +20.3 |
| Muscogee County | 50,887 | 23,945 | 1,848 | 76,680 | D +35.1 |
| Columbia County | 27,440 | 45,300 | 1,797 | 74,537 | R +24.0 |
| Coweta County | 24,411 | 46,930 | 1,762 | 73,103 | R +30.8 |
| Houston County | 32,174 | 37,359 | 1,717 | 71,250 | R +7.3 |
| Fayette County | 32,153 | 31,246 | 1,565 | 64,964 | D +1.4 |
| Bibb County | 42,309 | 20,910 | 1,561 | 64,780 | D +33.0 |
| Douglas County | 43,639 | 17,887 | 1,520 | 63,046 | D +40.9 |
| Carroll County | 15,005 | 35,685 | 1,252 | 51,942 | R +39.8 |
| Clarke County | 37,023 | 13,471 | 1,247 | 51,741 | D +45.5 |
| Newton County | 31,193 | 18,849 | 1,236 | 51,278 | D +24.1 |
| Walton County | 12,714 | 35,164 | 1,183 | 49,061 | R +45.8 |
| Bartow County | 11,811 | 35,192 | 1,161 | 48,164 | R +48.5 |
| Lowndes County | 19,050 | 23,874 | 1,060 | 43,984 | R +11.0 |
| Rockdale County | 31,699 | 8,872 | 1,003 | 41,574 | D +54.9 |
| Floyd County | 11,366 | 26,997 | 947 | 39,310 | R +39.8 |
| Glynn County | 14,668 | 23,270 | 937 | 38,875 | R +22.1 |
| Jackson County | 7,555 | 29,787 | 922 | 38,264 | R +58.1 |
| Barrow County | 10,181 | 25,031 | 870 | 36,082 | R +41.1 |
| Whitfield County | 8,951 | 24,170 | 819 | 33,940 | R +44.8 |
| Dougherty County | 24,669 | 7,566 | 796 | 33,031 | D +51.8 |
| Bulloch County | 11,214 | 18,721 | 739 | 30,674 | R +24.5 |
| Effingham County | 7,501 | 21,854 | 725 | 30,080 | R +47.7 |
| Catoosa County | 6,700 | 22,243 | 715 | 29,658 | R +52.4 |
| Spalding County | 12,378 | 16,102 | 703 | 29,183 | R +12.8 |
| Troup County | 10,817 | 16,504 | 674 | 27,995 | R +20.3 |
| Walker County | 5,564 | 21,365 | 665 | 27,594 | R +57.3 |
| Oconee County | 6,944 | 15,793 | 561 | 23,298 | R +38.0 |
| Gordon County | 3,900 | 18,694 | 558 | 23,152 | R +63.9 |
| Camden County | 7,240 | 14,774 | 544 | 22,558 | R +33.4 |
| Liberty County | 13,916 | 7,052 | 518 | 21,486 | D +31.9 |
| Laurens County | 7,267 | 13,444 | 511 | 21,222 | R +29.1 |
| Bryan County | 6,311 | 13,634 | 493 | 20,438 | R +35.8 |
| Habersham County | 2,899 | 16,714 | 485 | 20,098 | R +68.7 |
| Thomas County | 7,789 | 11,612 | 479 | 19,880 | R +19.2 |
| Harris County | 5,172 | 13,607 | 463 | 19,242 | R +43.8 |
| Baldwin County | 9,331 | 8,318 | 436 | 18,085 | D +5.6 |
| Pickens County | 2,681 | 14,495 | 425 | 17,601 | R +67.1 |
| Polk County | 3,256 | 12,845 | 397 | 16,498 | R +58.1 |
| Gilmer County | 2,636 | 13,028 | 388 | 16,052 | R +64.7 |
| Dawson County | 2,205 | 13,287 | 383 | 15,875 | R +69.8 |
| Lumpkin County | 2,900 | 12,366 | 377 | 15,643 | R +60.5 |
| Union County | 2,463 | 12,736 | 375 | 15,574 | R +66.0 |
| Tift County | 4,953 | 10,218 | 375 | 15,546 | R +33.9 |
| Lee County | 4,375 | 10,744 | 373 | 15,492 | R +41.1 |
| Monroe County | 3,978 | 11,079 | 372 | 15,429 | R +46.0 |
| Colquitt County | 3,807 | 11,097 | 368 | 15,272 | R +47.7 |
| Murray County | 2,026 | 12,296 | 354 | 14,676 | R +70.0 |
| Coffee County | 4,088 | 10,138 | 352 | 14,578 | R +41.5 |
| White County | 2,155 | 12,020 | 350 | 14,525 | R +67.9 |
| Madison County | 2,960 | 11,100 | 348 | 14,408 | R +56.5 |
| Fannin County | 2,227 | 11,511 | 339 | 14,077 | R +66.0 |
| Jones County | 4,576 | 8,996 | 336 | 13,908 | R +31.8 |
| Haralson County | 1,494 | 11,958 | 332 | 13,784 | R +75.9 |
| Ware County | 3,760 | 8,976 | 314 | 13,050 | R +40.0 |
| Hart County | 2,310 | 9,781 | 299 | 12,390 | R +60.3 |
| Peach County | 5,854 | 5,922 | 292 | 12,068 | R +0.6 |
| Wayne County | 2,278 | 9,436 | 288 | 12,002 | R +59.6 |
| Upson County | 3,703 | 7,986 | 289 | 11,978 | R +35.8 |
| Sumter County | 6,232 | 5,005 | 278 | 11,515 | D +10.7 |
| Butts County | 3,243 | 7,969 | 276 | 11,488 | R +41.1 |
| Putnam County | 3,200 | 8,010 | 277 | 11,487 | R +41.9 |
| Greene County | 3,826 | 7,356 | 276 | 11,458 | R +30.8 |
| Stephens County | 1,955 | 9,124 | 274 | 11,353 | R +63.1 |
| Morgan County | 2,924 | 8,087 | 271 | 11,282 | R +45.8 |
| Decatur County | 4,379 | 6,039 | 258 | 10,676 | R +15.6 |
| Franklin County | 1,139 | 9,047 | 252 | 10,438 | R +75.8 |
| Pike County | 1,248 | 8,820 | 250 | 10,318 | R +73.4 |
| Meriwether County | 3,914 | 6,059 | 247 | 10,220 | R +21.0 |
| Burke County | 4,939 | 4,858 | 241 | 10,038 | D +0.8 |
| Toombs County | 2,510 | 7,221 | 241 | 9,972 | R +47.2 |
| Grady County | 3,114 | 6,437 | 236 | 9,787 | R +34.0 |
| McDuffie County | 3,590 | 5,643 | 229 | 9,462 | R +21.7 |
| Chattooga County | 1,719 | 7,462 | 227 | 9,408 | R +61.0 |
| Rabun County | 1,845 | 7,095 | 221 | 9,161 | R +57.3 |
| Lamar County | 2,407 | 6,414 | 218 | 9,039 | R +44.3 |
| Washington County | 4,681 | 3,976 | 213 | 8,870 | D +7.9 |
| Emanuel County | 2,651 | 5,999 | 214 | 8,864 | R +37.8 |
| Banks County | 683 | 7,838 | 210 | 8,731 | R +82.0 |
| Elbert County | 2,389 | 5,933 | 206 | 8,528 | R +41.6 |
| Pierce County | 806 | 7,498 | 205 | 8,509 | R +78.7 |
| Worth County | 2,163 | 6,117 | 205 | 8,485 | R +46.6 |
| Mitchell County | 3,777 | 4,321 | 200 | 8,298 | R +6.5 |
| Tattnall County | 1,997 | 6,045 | 198 | 8,240 | R +49.1 |
| Dodge County | 1,968 | 5,754 | 190 | 7,912 | R +47.9 |
| Towns County | 1,380 | 6,228 | 188 | 7,796 | R +62.2 |
| Oglethorpe County | 2,205 | 5,256 | 184 | 7,645 | R +39.9 |
| Jasper County | 1,611 | 5,845 | 184 | 7,640 | R +55.4 |
| Crisp County | 2,832 | 4,579 | 184 | 7,595 | R +23.0 |
| Appling County | 1,364 | 6,023 | 183 | 7,570 | R +61.5 |
| Brantley County | 580 | 6,598 | 178 | 7,356 | R +81.8 |
| Berrien County | 1,028 | 6,035 | 175 | 7,238 | R +69.2 |
| Dade County | 1,236 | 5,607 | 169 | 7,012 | R +62.3 |
| Jefferson County | 3,723 | 3,033 | 167 | 6,923 | D +10.0 |
| Brooks County | 2,576 | 3,904 | 160 | 6,640 | R +20.0 |
| Cook County | 1,860 | 4,606 | 160 | 6,626 | R +41.4 |
| McIntosh County | 2,330 | 3,824 | 152 | 6,306 | R +23.7 |
| Screven County | 2,410 | 3,631 | 149 | 6,190 | R +19.7 |
| Ben Hill County | 2,153 | 3,853 | 148 | 6,154 | R +27.6 |
| Long County | 2,240 | 3,560 | 143 | 5,943 | R +22.2 |
| Crawford County | 1,494 | 3,947 | 134 | 5,575 | R +44.0 |
| Bleckley County | 1,171 | 4,227 | 134 | 5,532 | R +55.2 |
| Jeff Davis County | 803 | 4,398 | 129 | 5,330 | R +67.5 |
| Heard County | 761 | 4,364 | 127 | 5,252 | R +68.6 |
| Macon County | 2,975 | 1,534 | 112 | 4,621 | D +31.2 |
| Wilkes County | 1,925 | 2,563 | 111 | 4,599 | R +13.8 |
| Early County | 2,116 | 2,258 | 108 | 4,482 | R +3.1 |
| Wilkinson County | 1,942 | 2,342 | 106 | 4,390 | R +9.1 |
| Charlton County | 934 | 3,326 | 106 | 4,366 | R +54.8 |
| Bacon County | 525 | 3,701 | 104 | 4,330 | R +73.3 |
| Lincoln County | 1,215 | 2,998 | 104 | 4,317 | R +41.3 |
| Candler County | 1,119 | 2,934 | 101 | 4,154 | R +43.7 |
| Telfair County | 1,422 | 2,620 | 100 | 4,142 | R +28.9 |
| Dooly County | 2,003 | 1,989 | 99 | 4,091 | D +0.3 |
| Hancock County | 2,977 | 987 | 98 | 4,062 | D +49.0 |
| Terrell County | 2,280 | 1,665 | 97 | 4,042 | D +15.2 |
| Pulaski County | 1,205 | 2,715 | 96 | 4,016 | R +37.6 |
| Twiggs County | 1,862 | 1,976 | 94 | 3,932 | R +2.9 |
| Irwin County | 936 | 2,898 | 94 | 3,928 | R +50.0 |
| Evans County | 1,130 | 2,696 | 94 | 3,920 | R +39.9 |
| Johnson County | 1,052 | 2,662 | 92 | 3,806 | R +42.3 |
| Montgomery County | 884 | 2,704 | 88 | 3,676 | R +49.5 |
| Seminole County | 1,095 | 2,471 | 88 | 3,654 | R +37.7 |
| Taylor County | 1,288 | 2,241 | 87 | 3,616 | R +26.3 |
| Turner County | 1,284 | 2,178 | 86 | 3,548 | R +25.2 |
| Lanier County | 979 | 2,334 | 81 | 3,394 | R +39.9 |
| Jenkins County | 1,191 | 2,008 | 79 | 3,278 | R +24.9 |
| Marion County | 1,210 | 1,954 | 78 | 3,242 | R +23.0 |
| Wilcox County | 823 | 2,334 | 79 | 3,236 | R +46.7 |
| Talbot County | 1,881 | 1,146 | 74 | 3,101 | D +23.7 |
| Treutlen County | 857 | 1,863 | 67 | 2,787 | R +36.1 |
| Randolph County | 1,596 | 1,121 | 67 | 2,784 | D +17.1 |
| Atkinson County | 649 | 1,959 | 64 | 2,672 | R +49.0 |
| Clinch County | 613 | 1,844 | 61 | 2,518 | R +48.9 |
| Miller County | 604 | 1,786 | 58 | 2,448 | R +48.3 |
| Warren County | 1,326 | 1,006 | 58 | 2,390 | D +13.4 |
| Wheeler County | 697 | 1,625 | 57 | 2,379 | R +39.0 |
| Schley County | 393 | 1,661 | 50 | 2,104 | R +60.2 |
| Calhoun County | 1,263 | 761 | 50 | 2,074 | D +24.2 |
| Stewart County | 1,288 | 627 | 47 | 1,962 | D +33.7 |
| Glascock County | 115 | 1,296 | 35 | 1,446 | R +81.6 |
| Chattahoochee County | 694 | 709 | 35 | 1,438 | R +1.0 |
| Baker County | 594 | 722 | 33 | 1,349 | R +9.5 |
| Clay County | 754 | 522 | 32 | 1,308 | D +17.7 |
| Echols County | 123 | 1,088 | 30 | 1,241 | R +77.8 |
| Webster County | 529 | 657 | 28 | 1,214 | R +10.5 |
| Quitman County | 471 | 552 | 25 | 1,048 | R +7.7 |
| Taliaferro County | 511 | 284 | 20 | 815 | D +27.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +12.6 and R +1.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +4.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +5.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +5.6 |
| With polls, 5% weight | D +5.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +12.6 and R +1.9.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Edwards | Tolbert | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 815 LV | 2026-08-01 | 40 | 38 | D +2.0 |