2026 forecast · Virginia Senate
Mark Warner is all but certain to win Virginia's Senate seat.
Mark Warner vs Bert Mizusawa. The model has Warner ahead by 20.3 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Safe DModel D +20.3Polls D +21.9Updated October 22, 2026
Mark Warner
Democrat
59.1%
2,193,254 projected votes
Bert Mizusawa
Republican
38.8%
1,440,557 projected votes
100%Warner
0%Mizusawa
Warner all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Warner wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Warner
Model marginD +20.3Polls D +21.9
80 percent rangeD +27.5 to D +13.22,000 simulations
Projected votes3,709,485Warner 59.1%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Warner +1,008,453 net votes from 53 countiesStatewide D +20.1, a 746,084 vote marginMizusawa +262,369 net votes from 80 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Mark WarnerDemocrat · 100% to win
3040506070
59.1%
Bert MizusawaRepublican · 0% to win
3040506070
38.8%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
3,709,485 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Warner D | 2,193,254 | 59.1% |
| Bert Mizusawa R | 1,440,557 | 38.8% |
| Other / write-in O | 75,673 | 2.0% |
| Total | 3,709,485 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +27.5 and D +13.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
On Point PollingJun 16 · 996 LV · Gold92%Warner +18.0
On Point Polling/Virginia Project (R)May 5 · 1,047 LV · Gold8.4%Warner +26.0
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +21.9 | |
| On Point Polling | 996 LV | 121d | D +18.3 |
| On Point Polling/Virginia Project (R) | 1,047 LV | 163d | D +27.1 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Warner +20.3
Chance of winning
Mark Warner100%
Bert Mizusawa0%
Simulated vote
Mark Warner59.1%
Bert Mizusawa38.8%
Other / write-in2.0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +5.9
FundamentalsD +23.1
With pollsD +20.5
Early vote turnoutR +0.2
With early voteD +20.3
Read from 827,546 ballots cast so far in Virginia, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
16 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Mark Warner16
- Abigail SpanbergerGovernor of Virginiasource
- Ghazala HashmiLieutenant Governor of Virginiasource
- Jay JonesAttorney General of Virginiasource
- Bobby ScottU.S. Rep., VA-03source
- Don BeyerU.S. Rep., VA-08source
- Jennifer McClellanU.S. Rep., VA-04source
- Eugene VindmanU.S. Rep., VA-07source
- Suhas SubramanyamU.S. Rep., VA-10source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Warner | Mizusawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 55.3 | 42.6 |
| Women | 54% | 62.6 | 35.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 62.7 | 35.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 59.2 | 38.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 58.8 | 39.1 |
| 65+ | 32% | 58.2 | 39.8 |
| RaceWhite | 66% | 47.5 | 50.5 |
| Black | 19% | 87.0 | 11.0 |
| Latino | 6% | 70.6 | 27.4 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 80.5 | 17.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 30% | 41.7 | 56.3 |
| White women | 36% | 52.3 | 45.6 |
| Black men | 9% | 84.1 | 13.9 |
| Black women | 10% | 89.5 | 8.5 |
| Latino men | 3% | 69.7 | 28.3 |
| Latino women | 3% | 71.4 | 26.7 |
| All other races | 9% | 80.5 | 17.2 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
133 counties| County | Warner | Mizusawa | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,189,883 | 1,443,799 | 75,803 | 3,709,485 | D +20.1 |
| Fairfax County | 369,607 | 114,592 | 8,875 | 493,074 | D +51.9 |
| Virginia Beach city | 106,134 | 80,783 | 4,204 | 191,121 | D +13.2 |
| Prince William County | 127,359 | 57,180 | 3,192 | 187,731 | D +37.5 |
| Loudoun County | 121,606 | 58,625 | 3,490 | 183,721 | D +34.3 |
| Chesterfield County | 96,475 | 67,524 | 4,378 | 168,377 | D +17.4 |
| Henrico County | 105,411 | 41,582 | 3,460 | 150,453 | D +42.6 |
| Arlington County | 92,482 | 15,625 | 2,319 | 110,426 | D +69.8 |
| Chesapeake city | 60,643 | 44,007 | 1,810 | 106,460 | D +15.7 |
| Richmond city | 85,102 | 11,979 | 2,694 | 99,775 | D +73.6 |
| Norfolk city | 63,814 | 17,656 | 1,832 | 83,302 | D +55.6 |
| Alexandria city | 59,040 | 9,513 | 1,328 | 69,881 | D +71.1 |
| Newport News city | 48,911 | 18,834 | 1,242 | 68,987 | D +43.8 |
| Stafford County | 36,920 | 28,388 | 1,264 | 66,572 | D +12.9 |
| Spotsylvania County | 31,454 | 29,847 | 1,251 | 62,552 | D +2.6 |
| Hampton city | 42,203 | 13,215 | 958 | 56,376 | D +51.7 |
| Hanover County | 22,198 | 32,040 | 1,447 | 55,685 | R +17.6 |
| Albemarle County | 37,660 | 15,537 | 1,532 | 54,729 | D +40.8 |
| Roanoke County | 20,315 | 24,325 | 1,004 | 45,644 | R +8.7 |
| Suffolk city | 26,579 | 15,864 | 646 | 43,089 | D +25.0 |
| James City County | 22,884 | 17,220 | 652 | 40,756 | D +14.0 |
| Frederick County | 16,195 | 23,145 | 885 | 40,225 | R +17.3 |
| Montgomery County | 23,500 | 15,366 | 1,285 | 40,151 | D +20.3 |
| Bedford County | 11,373 | 27,301 | 709 | 39,383 | R +40.4 |
| Portsmouth city | 28,778 | 8,329 | 757 | 37,864 | D +54.2 |
| Roanoke city | 25,616 | 10,307 | 1,073 | 36,996 | D +41.5 |
| Rockingham County | 12,773 | 23,112 | 770 | 36,655 | R +28.1 |
| Augusta County | 10,195 | 23,663 | 797 | 34,655 | R +38.9 |
| Fauquier County | 15,744 | 18,295 | 589 | 34,628 | R +7.4 |
| York County | 15,972 | 15,640 | 613 | 32,225 | D +1.1 |
| Lynchburg city | 17,191 | 14,085 | 671 | 31,947 | D +9.7 |
| Pittsylvania County | 9,088 | 17,746 | 325 | 27,159 | R +31.9 |
| Campbell County | 7,605 | 16,629 | 394 | 24,628 | R +36.6 |
| Franklin County | 7,791 | 16,088 | 512 | 24,391 | R +34.0 |
| Washington County | 7,154 | 15,803 | 349 | 23,306 | R +37.0 |
| Culpeper County | 9,555 | 12,201 | 467 | 22,223 | R +12.0 |
| Charlottesville city | 18,153 | 2,363 | 656 | 21,172 | D +74.8 |
| Henry County | 8,602 | 12,006 | 314 | 20,922 | R +16.1 |
| Isle of Wight County | 8,317 | 10,590 | 327 | 19,234 | R +11.7 |
| Shenandoah County | 6,377 | 12,359 | 343 | 19,079 | R +31.4 |
| Louisa County | 7,561 | 10,305 | 496 | 18,362 | R +14.8 |
| Gloucester County | 6,376 | 11,349 | 361 | 18,086 | R +27.4 |
| Warren County | 6,353 | 10,643 | 400 | 17,396 | R +24.7 |
| Orange County | 6,851 | 9,943 | 360 | 17,154 | R +18.0 |
| Botetourt County | 5,266 | 11,132 | 352 | 16,750 | R +34.9 |
| Harrisonburg city | 11,272 | 4,378 | 584 | 16,234 | D +42.7 |
| Danville city | 10,685 | 5,300 | 161 | 16,146 | D +33.6 |
| Tazewell County | 3,610 | 12,048 | 191 | 15,849 | R +53.1 |
| Powhatan County | 4,885 | 10,463 | 475 | 15,823 | R +35.1 |
| Prince George County | 6,857 | 8,301 | 325 | 15,483 | R +9.3 |
| Halifax County | 6,557 | 8,087 | 193 | 14,837 | R +10.4 |
| Pulaski County | 4,760 | 9,105 | 283 | 14,148 | R +30.6 |
| Goochland County | 6,067 | 7,624 | 280 | 13,971 | R +11.0 |
| Amherst County | 5,227 | 8,485 | 237 | 13,949 | R +23.2 |
| Accomack County | 6,702 | 6,929 | 306 | 13,937 | R +1.6 |
| Caroline County | 6,915 | 6,601 | 275 | 13,791 | D +2.4 |
| Manassas city | 9,514 | 3,906 | 330 | 13,750 | D +40.9 |
| Wise County | 3,537 | 9,770 | 189 | 13,496 | R +46.2 |
| Mecklenburg County | 6,004 | 7,125 | 187 | 13,316 | R +8.3 |
| Fluvanna County | 6,852 | 5,989 | 342 | 13,183 | D +6.7 |
| Petersburg city | 11,584 | 1,201 | 143 | 12,928 | D +80.4 |
| Carroll County | 2,745 | 9,475 | 275 | 12,495 | R +53.9 |
| Dinwiddie County | 5,476 | 6,708 | 223 | 12,407 | R +9.8 |
| Wythe County | 3,182 | 8,629 | 254 | 12,065 | R +45.0 |
| New Kent County | 4,386 | 7,406 | 266 | 12,058 | R +25.1 |
| King George County | 5,003 | 6,751 | 252 | 12,006 | R +14.6 |
| Smyth County | 3,187 | 8,101 | 219 | 11,507 | R +42.7 |
| Fredericksburg city | 7,742 | 3,458 | 288 | 11,488 | D +37.5 |
| Staunton city | 6,392 | 4,516 | 268 | 11,176 | D +17.2 |
| Salem city | 4,825 | 5,688 | 270 | 10,783 | R +8.0 |
| Fairfax city | 7,739 | 2,791 | 204 | 10,734 | D +46.1 |
| Russell County | 2,660 | 7,784 | 149 | 10,593 | R +48.3 |
| Rockbridge County | 3,880 | 6,134 | 194 | 10,208 | R +22.0 |
| Winchester city | 6,033 | 3,816 | 274 | 10,123 | D +22.0 |
| Page County | 2,893 | 7,070 | 152 | 10,115 | R +41.2 |
| Greene County | 3,831 | 5,187 | 269 | 9,287 | R +14.5 |
| Waynesboro city | 3,989 | 4,793 | 272 | 9,054 | R +8.6 |
| Scott County | 1,809 | 6,831 | 114 | 8,754 | R +57.2 |
| King William County | 2,639 | 5,719 | 241 | 8,599 | R +35.8 |
| Prince Edward County | 4,583 | 3,819 | 180 | 8,582 | D +8.9 |
| Westmoreland County | 4,038 | 4,204 | 134 | 8,376 | R +2.0 |
| Lee County | 1,698 | 6,398 | 107 | 8,203 | R +57.1 |
| Hopewell city | 5,135 | 2,713 | 185 | 8,033 | D +30.3 |
| Southampton County | 3,473 | 4,408 | 112 | 7,993 | R +11.7 |
| Buchanan County | 2,011 | 5,562 | 76 | 7,649 | R +46.2 |
| Clarke County | 3,409 | 3,922 | 180 | 7,511 | R +6.8 |
| Patrick County | 1,912 | 5,446 | 150 | 7,508 | R +46.9 |
| Nelson County | 3,748 | 3,413 | 307 | 7,468 | D +4.7 |
| Floyd County | 2,689 | 4,512 | 231 | 7,432 | R +24.5 |
| Appomattox County | 2,198 | 5,098 | 134 | 7,430 | R +38.9 |
| Colonial Heights city | 2,661 | 4,498 | 176 | 7,335 | R +25.0 |
| Falls Church city | 6,066 | 995 | 152 | 7,213 | D +70.5 |
| Giles County | 2,123 | 4,893 | 172 | 7,188 | R +38.3 |
| Williamsburg city | 5,061 | 1,698 | 138 | 6,897 | D +49.1 |
| Brunswick County | 4,234 | 2,448 | 74 | 6,756 | D +26.5 |
| Buckingham County | 3,124 | 3,468 | 148 | 6,740 | R +5.0 |
| Madison County | 2,399 | 4,064 | 132 | 6,595 | R +25.2 |
| Alleghany County | 2,234 | 4,091 | 143 | 6,468 | R +28.6 |
| Grayson County | 1,576 | 4,720 | 149 | 6,445 | R +48.5 |
| Northumberland County | 2,866 | 3,468 | 97 | 6,431 | R +9.2 |
| Bristol city | 2,299 | 3,923 | 101 | 6,323 | R +25.7 |
| Amelia County | 2,108 | 4,041 | 132 | 6,281 | R +30.7 |
| Radford city | 3,436 | 2,510 | 159 | 6,105 | D +15.2 |
| Poquoson city | 1,855 | 4,107 | 115 | 6,077 | R +37.0 |
| Nottoway County | 2,783 | 3,016 | 106 | 5,905 | R +3.9 |
| Lancaster County | 2,890 | 2,877 | 93 | 5,860 | D +0.3 |
| Dickenson County | 1,689 | 3,827 | 89 | 5,605 | R +37.8 |
| Northampton County | 3,236 | 2,187 | 156 | 5,579 | D +18.8 |
| Middlesex County | 2,202 | 3,189 | 98 | 5,489 | R +17.9 |
| Manassas Park city | 3,556 | 1,479 | 129 | 5,164 | D +40.2 |
| Martinsville city | 3,349 | 1,543 | 90 | 4,982 | D +36.3 |
| Essex County | 2,573 | 2,305 | 74 | 4,952 | D +5.3 |
| Charlotte County | 1,926 | 2,961 | 60 | 4,947 | R +20.8 |
| Lunenburg County | 2,202 | 2,588 | 77 | 4,867 | R +7.8 |
| Mathews County | 1,608 | 2,952 | 60 | 4,620 | R +28.9 |
| Cumberland County | 1,963 | 2,307 | 119 | 4,389 | R +7.5 |
| Sussex County | 2,645 | 1,698 | 43 | 4,386 | D +21.7 |
| Greensville County | 2,566 | 1,467 | 49 | 4,082 | D +27.1 |
| Rappahannock County | 1,770 | 2,055 | 63 | 3,888 | R +7.1 |
| Charles City County | 2,232 | 1,221 | 52 | 3,505 | D +29.1 |
| Surry County | 1,981 | 1,454 | 66 | 3,501 | D +15.3 |
| Richmond County | 1,380 | 2,033 | 51 | 3,464 | R +18.8 |
| Franklin city | 2,166 | 1,124 | 37 | 3,327 | D +31.4 |
| King and Queen County | 1,395 | 1,802 | 78 | 3,275 | R +12.0 |
| Lexington city | 1,816 | 999 | 54 | 2,869 | D +28.5 |
| Bland County | 569 | 2,154 | 50 | 2,773 | R +56.9 |
| Buena Vista city | 826 | 1,484 | 62 | 2,372 | R +27.8 |
| Craig County | 559 | 1,718 | 61 | 2,338 | R +49.0 |
| Galax city | 721 | 1,463 | 42 | 2,226 | R +32.9 |
| Covington city | 872 | 1,147 | 35 | 2,054 | R +13.1 |
| Emporia city | 1,438 | 513 | 22 | 1,973 | D +47.1 |
| Bath County | 570 | 1,321 | 59 | 1,950 | R +38.2 |
| Norton city | 460 | 811 | 38 | 1,309 | R +26.0 |
| Highland County | 382 | 780 | 38 | 1,200 | R +32.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.