Washington House forecast
Democrats win control of the Washington House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 98 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Washington House map
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 70 D to 28 REvery House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39-2 | Carolyn Eslick 2024 | Ida Keeley vs Steve Ewing | R +10.2 | D +1.0 | 55% | 315 | 308 | 633 | Toss up |
| 35-2 | Travis Couture 2024 | Maria Littlesun vs Travis Couture | D +0.7 | D +2.9 | 65% | 32,335 | 30,543 | 63,835 | Lean D |
| 39-1 | Sam Low 2024 | Kathryn Lewandowsky vs Sam Low | R +7.9 | D +3.3 | 68% | 30,052 | 28,115 | 59,053 | Lean D |
| 12-1 | Brian Burnett 2024 | Stacy Willoughby vs Brian Burnett | R +7.3 | D +4.3 | 75% | 22,776 | 20,911 | 44,352 | Lean D |
| 2-2 | Matt Marshall 2024 | Angela Taylor vs Matt Marshall | R +15.4 | R +4.3 | 25% | 25,568 | 27,865 | 54,246 | Lean R |
| 18-1 | Stephanie Mcclintock 2024 | Randi Knott vs Stephanie McClintock | R +1.8 | D +4.6 | 76% | 18,452 | 16,832 | 35,821 | Lean D |
| 25-2 | Cyndy Jacobsen 2024 | Jenn Marie Strickling vs Cyndy Jacobsen | R +1.4 | D +4.7 | 77% | 3,766 | 3,427 | 7,302 | Lean D |
| 14-1 | Gloria Mendoza 2024 | Chelsea Dimas vs Gloria Mendoza | R +3.9 | D +5.2 | 77% | 5,917 | 5,337 | 11,426 | Lean D |
| 6-2 | Jenny Graham 2024 | Julia Payne vs Jonathan Bingle | R +12.3 | R +5.5 | 20% | 7,684 | 8,587 | 16,519 | Lean R |
| 25-1 | Michael Keaton 2024 | David Berg vs Michael Keaton | D +1.8 | D +6.1 | 83% | 23,446 | 20,733 | 44,852 | Likely D |
| 19-1 | Jim Walsh 2024 | Kevin Moynihan vs Jim Walsh | R +15.3 | R +6.7 | 16% | 24,966 | 28,535 | 54,316 | Likely R |
| 31-1 | Drew Stokesbary 2024 | Stephen Szczurko-Walton vs Drew Stokesbary | R +7.8 | R +6.7 | 15% | 19,320 | 22,095 | 42,047 | Likely R |
| 6-1 | Mike Volz 2024 | Michaela Kelso vs Alan Nolan | R +10.9 | R +6.9 | 15% | 17,533 | 20,119 | 38,225 | Likely R |
| 31-2 | Joshua Penner 2024 | John Bielka vs Josh Penner | R +14.2 | R +7.3 | 13% | 4,711 | 5,448 | 10,314 | Likely R |
| 20-2 | Ed Orcutt 2024 | Evan Jones vs Ed Orcutt | R +20.8 | R +9.8 | 9% | 32 | 40 | 73 | Likely R |
| 26-2 | Michelle Caldier 2024 | Renee Hernandez Greenfield vs Katy Cornell | D +8.6 | D +10.8 | 94% | 7,856 | 6,329 | 14,401 | Likely D |
| 16-1 | Mark Klicker 2024 | Kyle Palmer vs Mark Klicker | R +14.4 | R +10.9 | 4% | 18,747 | 23,338 | 42,726 | Likely R |
| 9-2 | Joe Schmick 2024 | Karina Wallace vs Joe Schmick | R +17.6 | R +11.8 | 4% | 19,821 | 25,145 | 45,651 | Likely R |
| 19-2 | Joel Mcentire 2024 | Terry Carlson vs Joel McEntire | R +21.4 | R +11.9 | 4% | 1,082 | 1,376 | 2,495 | Likely R |
Projected Washington House vote
98 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 2,285,257 | 71.3% |
| Republicans | 891,354 | 27.8% |
| Independents and others | 27,256 | 0.9% |
| Total | 3,203,871 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.