2026 forecast · Georgia Governor
Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson are in a toss up for Georgia's governorship.
Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Rick Jackson, an open seat. The model has Bottoms ahead by 0.6 points, winning 56 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Toss upModel D +0.6Polls R +0.2Updated October 22, 2026
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Democrat
49.6%
2,318,555 projected votes
Rick Jackson
Republican
49.0%
2,289,274 projected votes
56%Bottoms
44%Jackson
Bottoms slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Bottoms wins about 56 of 100
RatingToss up56% chance for Bottoms
Model marginD +0.6Polls R +0.2
80 percent rangeD +7.3 to R +6.22,000 simulations
Projected votes4,671,833Bottoms 49.6%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Bottoms +894,945 net votes from 30 countiesStatewide D +0.4, a 20,911 vote marginJackson +874,034 net votes from 129 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Keisha Lance BottomsDemocrat · 56% to win
3040506070
49.6%
Rick JacksonRepublican · 44% to win
3040506070
49.0%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
4,671,833 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Keisha Lance Bottoms D | 2,318,555 | 49.6% |
| Rick Jackson R | 2,289,274 | 49.0% |
| Chase Oliver L | 63,537 | 1.4% |
| Total | 4,671,833 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +7.3 and R +6.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
InsiderAdvantage (R)Sep 23 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off16%Bottoms +2.5
InsiderAdvantage (R)Oct 13 · 800 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off15%Bottoms +2.5
UGA SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionOct 15 · 1,000 LV · NR15%Jackson +1.0
Quantus InsightsOct 17 · 755 LV · Gold15%Jackson +1.5
Big Data PollSep 23 · 678 LV · Gold15%Jackson +2.0
YouGovSep 18 · 3,299 LV · C14%Jackson +2.0
Every other poll together: 10.0%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +0.2 | |
| Quantus Insights | 755 LV | 0d | D +0.3 |
| UGA SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 1,000 LV | 0d | R +1.0 |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 0d | R +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 800 LV | 2d | D +0.1 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 678 LV | 22d | D +0.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 678 LV | 22d | R +2.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 22d | R +0.0 |
| YouGov | 3,299 LV | 27d | R +2.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1,019 LV | 31d | R +1.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 800 LV | 59d | D +2.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 815 LV | 75d | D +2.7 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 1,060 LV | 91d | D +1.4 |
| State Navigate | 448 LV | 94d | D +5.8 |
| Wick | 1,175 LV | 107d | D +0.7 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,002 RV | 110d | D +4.5 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | 510 LV | 135d | D +12.1 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | 407 LV | 189d | D +7.6 |
Model margin
Bottoms +0.6
Chance of winning
Keisha Lance Bottoms56%
Rick Jackson44%
Simulated vote
Keisha Lance Bottoms49.6%
Rick Jackson49.0%
Chase Oliver1.4%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +2.2
FundamentalsR +3.2
With pollsD +0.6
Early vote turnoutD +0.1
With early voteD +0.6
Read from 1,177,997 ballots cast so far in Georgia, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
64 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Keisha Lance Bottoms37
- Joe BidenFormer Presidentsource
- Georgia law enforcement coalition32 sheriffs, DAs and solicitors incl. Fulton DA Fani Willis and Fulton Sheriff Patrick Labatsource
- Barack Obamasource
- Jon OssoffU.S. Senator, Georgiasource
- Raphael WarnockU.S. Senator, Georgiasource
- Eric HolderFormer U.S. Attorney Generalsource
- Gavin NewsomGovernor of Californiasource
- Wes MooreGovernor of Marylandsource
Rick Jackson27
- Chris CarrAttorney General of Georgiasource
- Brian KempGovernor of Georgiasource
- Nathan DealFormer Governor of Georgiasource
- Sonny PerdueFormer Governor of Georgia and former Agriculture Secretarysource
- Donald Trumpsource
- Buddy CarterU.S. Rep., GA-01source
- Tyler HarperGeorgia Agriculture Commissionersource
- Bárbara Rivera HolmesGeorgia Labor Commissionersource
On the air
Mark Halperin: His 2WAY coverage focused on Republican Rick Jackson's absence from a Georgia governor debate and candidates dodging debates. source
Chris Hayes: Anchored All In live from Atlanta covering the Georgia governor race. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bottoms | Jackson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 45.4 | 53.2 |
| Women | 53% | 53.1 | 45.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 49.7 | 48.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 48.4 | 50.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 49.9 | 48.8 |
| 65+ | 29% | 49.6 | 49.0 |
| RaceWhite | 57% | 30.1 | 68.5 |
| Black | 32% | 80.5 | 18.3 |
| Latino | 5% | 53.3 | 45.2 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 65.6 | 32.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 27% | 25.1 | 73.5 |
| White women | 30% | 34.5 | 64.1 |
| Black men | 15% | 76.0 | 22.8 |
| Black women | 17% | 84.4 | 14.4 |
| Latino men | 3% | 52.7 | 45.9 |
| Latino women | 3% | 54.0 | 44.6 |
| All other races | 6% | 65.6 | 32.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
159 counties| County | Bottoms | Jackson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,314,624 | 2,293,713 | 63,496 | 4,671,833 | D +0.4 |
| Fulton County | 360,422 | 122,813 | 5,870 | 489,105 | D +48.8 |
| Gwinnett County | 213,120 | 143,923 | 5,806 | 362,849 | D +19.1 |
| Cobb County | 206,071 | 142,996 | 6,037 | 355,104 | D +17.9 |
| DeKalb County | 280,647 | 55,848 | 3,742 | 340,237 | D +66.3 |
| Cherokee County | 38,972 | 96,032 | 2,756 | 137,760 | R +41.5 |
| Chatham County | 77,268 | 50,242 | 1,679 | 129,189 | D +20.9 |
| Forsyth County | 35,205 | 80,447 | 2,120 | 117,772 | R +38.5 |
| Henry County | 71,116 | 40,365 | 1,240 | 112,721 | D +27.3 |
| Clayton County | 95,318 | 13,586 | 878 | 109,782 | D +74.5 |
| Hall County | 21,083 | 64,445 | 1,391 | 86,919 | R +49.9 |
| Richmond County | 55,470 | 24,914 | 894 | 81,278 | D +37.8 |
| Paulding County | 30,363 | 47,790 | 1,271 | 79,424 | R +22.1 |
| Muscogee County | 49,297 | 26,820 | 847 | 76,964 | D +29.2 |
| Columbia County | 27,469 | 46,113 | 1,121 | 74,703 | R +25.1 |
| Coweta County | 24,893 | 47,467 | 1,176 | 73,536 | R +30.8 |
| Houston County | 31,662 | 38,752 | 927 | 71,341 | R +10.0 |
| Fayette County | 31,328 | 32,720 | 975 | 65,023 | R +2.3 |
| Bibb County | 40,036 | 24,321 | 584 | 64,941 | D +24.2 |
| Douglas County | 40,563 | 21,655 | 819 | 63,037 | D +30.3 |
| Carroll County | 14,705 | 36,629 | 835 | 52,169 | R +42.2 |
| Clarke County | 35,465 | 15,193 | 772 | 51,430 | D +39.4 |
| Newton County | 29,439 | 21,351 | 513 | 51,303 | D +15.7 |
| Walton County | 13,222 | 35,382 | 641 | 49,245 | R +45.1 |
| Bartow County | 12,201 | 35,416 | 824 | 48,441 | R +48.2 |
| Lowndes County | 19,390 | 24,021 | 483 | 43,894 | R +10.8 |
| Rockdale County | 29,862 | 11,190 | 414 | 41,466 | D +45.2 |
| Floyd County | 11,327 | 27,495 | 712 | 39,534 | R +41.2 |
| Glynn County | 14,661 | 23,832 | 507 | 39,000 | R +23.7 |
| Jackson County | 7,508 | 30,405 | 617 | 38,530 | R +59.6 |
| Barrow County | 10,134 | 25,414 | 688 | 36,236 | R +42.3 |
| Whitfield County | 8,829 | 24,557 | 647 | 34,033 | R +46.5 |
| Dougherty County | 23,470 | 9,410 | 232 | 33,112 | D +42.6 |
| Bulloch County | 11,233 | 19,244 | 370 | 30,847 | R +26.1 |
| Effingham County | 7,652 | 22,126 | 484 | 30,262 | R +48.1 |
| Catoosa County | 6,964 | 22,122 | 534 | 29,620 | R +51.2 |
| Spalding County | 12,618 | 16,276 | 381 | 29,275 | R +12.7 |
| Troup County | 10,934 | 16,858 | 310 | 28,102 | R +21.2 |
| Walker County | 5,777 | 21,195 | 494 | 27,466 | R +56.3 |
| Oconee County | 6,737 | 16,371 | 352 | 23,460 | R +41.1 |
| Gordon County | 3,903 | 18,918 | 418 | 23,239 | R +64.8 |
| Camden County | 7,240 | 14,965 | 407 | 22,612 | R +34.3 |
| Liberty County | 13,378 | 7,953 | 259 | 21,590 | D +25.2 |
| Laurens County | 7,341 | 13,688 | 170 | 21,199 | R +30.3 |
| Bryan County | 6,199 | 14,059 | 329 | 20,587 | R +38.2 |
| Habersham County | 2,697 | 17,187 | 324 | 20,208 | R +71.8 |
| Thomas County | 8,013 | 11,663 | 199 | 19,875 | R +18.6 |
| Harris County | 5,587 | 13,463 | 231 | 19,281 | R +41.0 |
| Baldwin County | 9,435 | 8,450 | 217 | 18,102 | D +5.2 |
| Pickens County | 2,633 | 14,818 | 247 | 17,698 | R +68.9 |
| Polk County | 3,297 | 13,008 | 248 | 16,553 | R +58.8 |
| Gilmer County | 2,562 | 13,279 | 274 | 16,115 | R +66.4 |
| Dawson County | 2,112 | 13,654 | 256 | 16,022 | R +72.1 |
| Lumpkin County | 2,865 | 12,577 | 316 | 15,758 | R +61.6 |
| Union County | 2,335 | 13,072 | 235 | 15,642 | R +68.6 |
| Tift County | 4,950 | 10,439 | 187 | 15,576 | R +35.5 |
| Lee County | 4,480 | 10,868 | 170 | 15,518 | R +41.3 |
| Monroe County | 4,017 | 11,230 | 185 | 15,432 | R +47.0 |
| Colquitt County | 4,083 | 10,894 | 167 | 15,144 | R +45.2 |
| Murray County | 2,022 | 12,333 | 233 | 14,588 | R +70.7 |
| White County | 2,096 | 12,219 | 262 | 14,577 | R +69.5 |
| Coffee County | 4,257 | 10,079 | 159 | 14,495 | R +40.4 |
| Madison County | 2,813 | 11,417 | 217 | 14,447 | R +59.9 |
| Fannin County | 2,178 | 11,757 | 169 | 14,104 | R +68.0 |
| Jones County | 4,800 | 8,960 | 125 | 13,885 | R +30.3 |
| Haralson County | 1,423 | 12,183 | 222 | 13,828 | R +77.9 |
| Ware County | 3,967 | 8,829 | 156 | 12,952 | R +37.8 |
| Hart County | 2,169 | 9,994 | 185 | 12,348 | R +63.5 |
| Peach County | 5,889 | 6,076 | 109 | 12,074 | R +1.7 |
| Upson County | 3,849 | 7,988 | 156 | 11,993 | R +34.7 |
| Wayne County | 2,203 | 9,624 | 156 | 11,983 | R +62.1 |
| Sumter County | 5,990 | 5,481 | 81 | 11,552 | D +4.3 |
| Greene County | 3,765 | 7,651 | 93 | 11,509 | R +34.0 |
| Putnam County | 3,273 | 8,129 | 103 | 11,505 | R +42.4 |
| Butts County | 3,510 | 7,732 | 125 | 11,367 | R +37.3 |
| Morgan County | 2,951 | 8,222 | 148 | 11,321 | R +46.8 |
| Stephens County | 1,978 | 9,142 | 170 | 11,290 | R +63.6 |
| Decatur County | 4,357 | 6,240 | 75 | 10,672 | R +18.0 |
| Franklin County | 1,091 | 9,168 | 125 | 10,384 | R +78.0 |
| Pike County | 1,313 | 8,885 | 134 | 10,332 | R +73.5 |
| Meriwether County | 3,904 | 6,236 | 102 | 10,242 | R +22.9 |
| Burke County | 4,753 | 5,206 | 100 | 10,059 | R +4.6 |
| Toombs County | 2,605 | 7,271 | 100 | 9,976 | R +47.0 |
| Grady County | 3,211 | 6,456 | 98 | 9,765 | R +33.4 |
| McDuffie County | 3,475 | 5,877 | 113 | 9,465 | R +25.7 |
| Chattooga County | 1,652 | 7,570 | 149 | 9,371 | R +63.3 |
| Rabun County | 1,795 | 7,276 | 157 | 9,228 | R +59.4 |
| Lamar County | 2,459 | 6,469 | 108 | 9,036 | R +44.5 |
| Washington County | 4,447 | 4,374 | 62 | 8,883 | D +0.6 |
| Emanuel County | 2,841 | 5,901 | 88 | 8,830 | R +35.1 |
| Banks County | 659 | 7,952 | 140 | 8,751 | R +83.3 |
| Elbert County | 2,406 | 6,000 | 94 | 8,500 | R +42.5 |
| Pierce County | 825 | 7,553 | 85 | 8,463 | R +79.5 |
| Worth County | 2,218 | 6,147 | 84 | 8,449 | R +46.8 |
| Mitchell County | 3,721 | 4,504 | 66 | 8,291 | R +9.7 |
| Tattnall County | 2,019 | 6,129 | 90 | 8,238 | R +50.1 |
| Dodge County | 1,991 | 5,832 | 71 | 7,894 | R +48.9 |
| Towns County | 1,341 | 6,381 | 110 | 7,832 | R +64.3 |
| Oglethorpe County | 2,188 | 5,364 | 115 | 7,667 | R +41.6 |
| Jasper County | 1,704 | 5,809 | 99 | 7,612 | R +53.9 |
| Crisp County | 2,845 | 4,712 | 54 | 7,611 | R +24.8 |
| Appling County | 1,341 | 6,136 | 60 | 7,537 | R +63.7 |
| Brantley County | 562 | 6,603 | 117 | 7,282 | R +82.9 |
| Berrien County | 1,080 | 6,030 | 101 | 7,211 | R +68.8 |
| Dade County | 1,245 | 5,590 | 146 | 6,981 | R +62.2 |
| Jefferson County | 3,531 | 3,350 | 49 | 6,930 | D +2.5 |
| Cook County | 1,924 | 4,627 | 66 | 6,617 | R +41.0 |
| Brooks County | 2,696 | 3,844 | 66 | 6,606 | R +17.7 |
| McIntosh County | 2,303 | 3,956 | 63 | 6,322 | R +26.1 |
| Screven County | 2,265 | 3,892 | 49 | 6,206 | R +26.3 |
| Ben Hill County | 2,093 | 3,996 | 61 | 6,150 | R +31.1 |
| Long County | 2,293 | 3,569 | 95 | 5,957 | R +21.6 |
| Crawford County | 1,552 | 3,938 | 62 | 5,552 | R +43.1 |
| Bleckley County | 1,178 | 4,273 | 72 | 5,523 | R +56.2 |
| Jeff Davis County | 788 | 4,460 | 58 | 5,306 | R +69.1 |
| Heard County | 792 | 4,380 | 73 | 5,245 | R +68.3 |
| Macon County | 2,831 | 1,788 | 32 | 4,651 | D +22.5 |
| Wilkes County | 1,824 | 2,723 | 46 | 4,593 | R +19.9 |
| Early County | 2,000 | 2,453 | 32 | 4,485 | R +10.1 |
| Wilkinson County | 1,957 | 2,394 | 35 | 4,386 | R +10.1 |
| Charlton County | 920 | 3,353 | 61 | 4,334 | R +56.1 |
| Lincoln County | 1,239 | 3,029 | 48 | 4,316 | R +41.8 |
| Bacon County | 529 | 3,712 | 51 | 4,292 | R +74.1 |
| Candler County | 1,138 | 2,973 | 34 | 4,145 | R +44.3 |
| Telfair County | 1,392 | 2,686 | 42 | 4,120 | R +31.7 |
| Dooly County | 1,948 | 2,129 | 29 | 4,106 | R +4.5 |
| Hancock County | 2,851 | 1,212 | 29 | 4,092 | D +40.1 |
| Terrell County | 2,123 | 1,896 | 33 | 4,052 | D +5.5 |
| Pulaski County | 1,264 | 2,704 | 36 | 4,004 | R +36.0 |
| Evans County | 1,110 | 2,791 | 32 | 3,933 | R +42.8 |
| Twiggs County | 1,876 | 2,019 | 36 | 3,931 | R +3.8 |
| Irwin County | 959 | 2,915 | 39 | 3,913 | R +49.9 |
| Johnson County | 1,087 | 2,666 | 27 | 3,780 | R +41.7 |
| Montgomery County | 915 | 2,725 | 37 | 3,677 | R +49.2 |
| Seminole County | 1,103 | 2,484 | 40 | 3,627 | R +38.1 |
| Taylor County | 1,287 | 2,292 | 32 | 3,611 | R +28.2 |
| Turner County | 1,267 | 2,239 | 46 | 3,552 | R +27.7 |
| Lanier County | 1,041 | 2,289 | 40 | 3,370 | R +37.1 |
| Jenkins County | 1,151 | 2,105 | 23 | 3,279 | R +29.1 |
| Marion County | 1,223 | 1,978 | 46 | 3,247 | R +23.2 |
| Wilcox County | 862 | 2,337 | 26 | 3,225 | R +46.0 |
| Talbot County | 1,795 | 1,282 | 37 | 3,114 | D +16.4 |
| Randolph County | 1,470 | 1,296 | 17 | 2,783 | D +5.2 |
| Treutlen County | 895 | 1,859 | 23 | 2,777 | R +34.5 |
| Atkinson County | 673 | 1,950 | 32 | 2,655 | R +48.1 |
| Clinch County | 646 | 1,820 | 30 | 2,496 | R +47.0 |
| Miller County | 623 | 1,796 | 25 | 2,444 | R +47.9 |
| Warren County | 1,248 | 1,130 | 21 | 2,399 | D +4.8 |
| Wheeler County | 706 | 1,641 | 19 | 2,366 | R +39.0 |
| Schley County | 417 | 1,663 | 23 | 2,103 | R +58.8 |
| Calhoun County | 1,183 | 889 | 15 | 2,087 | D +13.9 |
| Stewart County | 1,248 | 713 | 13 | 1,974 | D +26.8 |
| Glascock County | 115 | 1,313 | 16 | 1,444 | R +82.4 |
| Chattahoochee County | 699 | 722 | 22 | 1,443 | R +1.9 |
| Baker County | 597 | 742 | 10 | 1,349 | R +10.4 |
| Clay County | 713 | 587 | 9 | 1,309 | D +9.0 |
| Echols County | 123 | 1,092 | 20 | 1,235 | R +77.3 |
| Webster County | 488 | 718 | 9 | 1,215 | R +18.5 |
| Quitman County | 445 | 592 | 9 | 1,046 | R +14.0 |
| Taliaferro County | 489 | 323 | 6 | 818 | D +18.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.