2026 state legislative forecast
Maine House forecast
Democrats win control of the Maine House in 99% of 2,000 simulations. All 151 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 13 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
99%D1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
81 to 98Median 89 ยท 76 for a majority
Favored to flip
13to D0to R
After 2024: 74 D, 75 R, 2 other
Environment
D +9.0Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Maine House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 90 D to 60 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kimberly M Haggan 2024 | Clifton Guy Foster III vs Kimberly M. Haggan | R +9.2 | R +0.2 | 49% | 2,648 | 2,659 | 5,387 | Toss up |
| 85 | Kimberly Pomerleau 2024 | Paul Harris Welch vs Adrienne Paul | R +9.2 | R +0.3 | 49% | 2,664 | 2,677 | 5,422 | Toss up |
| 44 | William D Pluecker 2024 | Shawn Saindon (I) vs Ray A. Thombs Jr. | R +9.5 | R +0.5 | 48% I | 2,418 I | 2,371 | 4,789 | Toss up |
| 82 | Nathan J Wadsworth 2024 | Christopher Alfred Lewey vs Caleb J. Ness | R +0.5 | D +0.7 | 55% | 2,468 | 2,435 | 4,978 | Toss up |
| 2 | Roger C Albert 2024 | Roland Daniel Martin vs Roger C. Albert | R +8.1 | R +1.1 | 44% | 2,188 | 2,238 | 4,494 | Toss up |
| 58 | Sharon C Frost 2024 | Sharon C. Frost (I) vs Dexter E. Bridges Jr. | R +10.1 | R +1.2 | 45% I | 3,011 I | 2,989 | 6,000 | Toss up |
| 38 | Benjamin C Hymes 2024 | Kayla M.T. Miller vs Benjamin C. Hymes | R +9.7 | R +1.3 | 44% | 2,133 | 2,188 | 4,386 | Toss up |
| 37 | Reagan L Paul 2024 | Alan Lee Orcutt vs Reagan L. Paul | R +5.7 | D +1.4 | 58% | 2,872 | 2,794 | 5,752 | Toss up |
| 5 | Joseph F Underwood 2024 | Lori G. Kenneson vs Douglas C. Carlisle Jr. ยท Bruce Archer (D) withdrew | R +11.1 | R +1.6 | 41% | 1,734 | 1,789 | 3,576 | Toss up |
| 67 | Shelley J Rudnicki 2024 | Matthew C. Townsend vs Shawn M. Dixon | R +17.8 | R +2.0 | 41% | 2,157 | 2,248 | 4,472 | Lean R |
| 13 | Russell P White 2024 | Michael H. Cunningham II vs Russell P. White | R +4.4 | D +2.2 | 64% | 2,320 | 2,222 | 4,611 | Lean D |
| 141 | Lucas John Lanigan 2024 | Rebecca L. Flood Andrews vs Marc A. Boisse ยท David R. Mongeau II (I) | R +22.4 | R +2.5 | 38% | 1,174 | 1,234 | 2,444 | Lean R |
| 73 | Michael A Soboleski 2024 | Daniel J. Simonds vs Michael Soboleski | R +11.6 | R +2.6 | 35% | 2,274 | 2,398 | 4,743 | Lean R |
| 136 | John M Eder 2024 | Michelle K. Conners vs John Eder | R +10.6 | R +3.3 | 32% | 2,718 | 2,903 | 5,706 | Lean R |
| 143 | Ann Marie Fredericks 2024 | John R. Henkelman vs Melissa A. Simpson ยท Eric H. Small (R) withdrew | D +4.4 | D +3.6 | 71% | 4,490 | 4,175 | 8,797 | Lean D |
| 148 | Thomas Arthur Lavigne 2024 | Marissa L. Tasker vs Thomas Arthur Lavigne ยท Margaret Wheeler (D) withdrew; Noah Arthur Cobb (I) withdrew | R +6.8 | R +3.9 | 28% | 1,716 | 1,855 | 3,625 | Lean R |
| 137 | Nathan M Carlow 2024 | Charles Tilburg vs Nathan M. Carlow | R +8.7 | R +4.0 | 27% | 3,492 | 3,787 | 7,390 | Lean R |
| 52 | David W Guilmette 2024 | Sally Jeane Cluchey vs David W. Guilmette | R +7.9 | D +4.9 | 78% | 2,873 | 2,603 | 5,559 | Lean D |
| 78 | Rachel A Henderson 2024 | Woodleigh H. Hughes vs Rachel A. Henderson | R +12.0 | R +5.2 | 23% | 1,390 | 1,541 | 2,976 | Lean R |
| 106 | Barbara A Bagshaw 2024 | Bradley M. Youngs vs Barbara Bagshaw | R +0.7 | D +5.2 | 79% | 5,304 | 4,783 | 10,240 | Lean D |
| 86 | Rolf A Olsen 2024 | Abigail N. Geer vs Rolf A. Olsen Jr. | R +2.6 | D +5.5 | 81% | 2,563 | 2,297 | 4,935 | Lean D |
| 140 | Wayne R Parry 2024 | Kirstan L. Watson vs Wayne R. Parry | R +10.7 | R +5.7 | 19% | 3,005 | 3,369 | 6,471 | Lean R |
| 142 | Anne-Marie Mastraccio 2024 | Ayn M. Hanselmann vs Domingo E. Torres ยท Gordon E. Frohloff (R) withdrew | R +7.6 | D +5.9 | 82% | 2,596 | 2,307 | 4,978 | Lean D |
| 9 | Arthur Kevin Mingo 2024 | Nicole N. Richards vs Arthur K. Mingo | R +5.1 | R +6.0 | 19% | 1,808 | 2,037 | 3,903 | Lean R |
| 90 | Laurel D Libby 2024 | Pamela B. Hart vs James W. Sorcek | R +26.5 | R +6.2 | 17% | 747 | 844 | 1,615 | Likely R |
| 108 | Parnell William Terry 2024 | Parnell W. Terry vs Kelly L. Dearborn | R +7.2 | D +6.3 | 84% | 2,606 | 2,298 | 4,978 | Likely D |
| 88 | Quentin J Chapman 2024 | Dana N. Staples vs Quentin James Chapman | D +6.1 | D +6.9 | 85% | 5,511 | 4,800 | 10,468 | Likely D |
| 63 | Paul R Flynn 2024 | Taylor Marie West vs Paul R. Flynn | R +11.7 | R +7.0 | 15% | 2,684 | 3,087 | 5,859 | Likely R |
| 79 | Michael J Lance 2024 | Brianna Fern Lueck vs Michael J. Lance | R +15.9 | R +7.0 | 14% | 1,737 | 2,000 | 3,794 | Likely R |
| 3 | Mark Michael Babin 2024 | David H. McCrea vs Susan Bernard | R +23.7 | R +7.3 | 13% | 1,917 | 2,218 | 4,198 | Likely R |
| 47 | Wayne K Farrin 2024 | Wayne K. Farrin vs Chester B. Grover III | R +6.0 | D +7.3 | 88% | 2,972 | 2,565 | 5,621 | Likely D |
| 17 | Steven M Bishop 2024 | Ronald B. Russell vs Steven Matthew Bishop | D +0.3 | D +7.4 | 87% | 2,692 | 2,321 | 5,090 | Likely D |
| 20 | Dani L O'Halloran 2024 | Dani O'Halloran vs Patrick A. Jude | R +5.0 | D +7.6 | 89% | 2,432 | 2,090 | 4,591 | Likely D |
| 53 | Michael H Lemelin 2024 | Richard Marc Goldman vs Michael H. Lemelin | R +14.8 | R +7.8 | 13% | 2,319 | 2,710 | 5,106 | Likely R |
| 83 | Marygrace Caroline Cimino 2024 | Timothy J. Becker vs Marygrace Caroline Cimino | D +0.6 | D +8.5 | 91% | 2,839 | 2,395 | 5,313 | Likely D |
| 81 | Peter Conley Wood 2024 | Christopher A. Easton vs Peter C. Wood | D +0.7 | D +8.9 | 92% | 2,694 | 2,253 | 5,023 | Likely D |
| 70 | Jennifer Lynn Poirier 2024 | Joseph R. Almand vs Jennifer Lynn Poirier | R +10.6 | R +9.5 | 8% | 1,630 | 1,973 | 3,658 | Likely R |
| 98 | Kilton M Webb 2024 | Kilton McCarthy Webb vs William J. St. Michel | D +2.4 | D +10.5 | 95% | 2,102 | 1,703 | 3,863 | Likely D |
| 19 | Richard H Campbell 2024 | David Ulrich vs Richard H. Campbell | R +20.2 | R +11.4 | 4% | 2,505 | 3,151 | 5,742 | Likely R |
| 61 | Alicia Carol Collins 2024 | Robin G. Crawley vs Alicia Carol Collins | R +21.5 | R +11.5 | 5% | 2,266 | 2,858 | 5,202 | Likely R |
Projected Maine House vote
151 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 459,524 | 58.4% |
| Republicans | 302,588 | 38.5% |
| Independents and others | 24,743 | 3.1% |
| Total | 786,846 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.