Phil Scott is very likely to win Vermont's governorship.
Amanda Janoo vs Phil Scott. The model has Scott ahead by 8.1 points, winning 90 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
329,223 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Phil Scott R | 172,556 | 52.4% |
| Amanda Janoo D | 146,000 | 44.3% |
| Other / write-in O | 10,700 | 3.3% |
| Total | 329,223 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +0.3 and R +16.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +5.1 | |
| State Navigate | 948 LV | 11d | R +3.043 to 46 |
| Braun Research | 817 LV | 24d | R +10.034 to 44 |
| University of New Hampshire | 829 LV | 24d | D +6.049 to 43 |
| University of New Hampshire | 954 LV | 87d | R +11.033 to 44 |
| University of New Hampshire | 887 LV | 114d | R +15.027 to 42 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 79,651 ballots cast so far in Vermont, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
17 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Bernie SandersU.S. Senatorsource
- Peter WelchU.S. Senatorsource
- Becca BalintU.S. Representative VT-ALsource
- David ZuckermanFormer Lieutenant Governor (Progressive)source
- Christine HallquistFormer CEO of Vermont Electric Cooperative, 2018 Democratic nominee for governorsource
- Jerry GreenfieldBen and Jerry's co foundersource
- Vermont AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Vermont State Employees' AssociationPublic employees unionsource
Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved Vermont governor from Solid R to Likely R. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Janoo | Scott |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 44% | 39.0 | 57.7 |
| Women | 56% | 46.3 | 50.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 43.2 | 53.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 40.1 | 56.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 41.0 | 55.8 |
| 65+ | 36% | 46.7 | 50.0 |
| RaceWhite | 93% | 41.0 | 55.7 |
| Latino | 2% | 63.8 | 33.2 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 70.7 | 25.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 36.3 | 60.5 |
| White women | 53% | 44.6 | 52.1 |
| All other races | 4% | 70.7 | 25.7 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Janoo | Scott | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 146,127 | 172,413 | 10,683 | 329,223 | R +8.0 |
| Chittenden County | 46,256 | 40,097 | 2,123 | 88,476 | D +7.0 |
| Washington County | 15,776 | 15,035 | 854 | 31,665 | D +2.3 |
| Windsor County | 14,219 | 15,280 | 975 | 30,474 | R +3.4 |
| Rutland County | 9,241 | 19,603 | 1,265 | 30,109 | R +34.3 |
| Windham County | 13,669 | 8,812 | 816 | 23,297 | D +20.8 |
| Franklin County | 6,643 | 15,675 | 857 | 23,175 | R +39.0 |
| Addison County | 9,274 | 10,421 | 547 | 20,242 | R +5.5 |
| Bennington County | 7,866 | 9,549 | 936 | 18,351 | R +9.1 |
| Orange County | 6,212 | 8,924 | 468 | 15,604 | R +17.3 |
| Caledonia County | 5,107 | 9,074 | 560 | 14,741 | R +26.8 |
| Lamoille County | 5,765 | 7,021 | 369 | 13,155 | R +9.6 |
| Orleans County | 3,924 | 8,191 | 651 | 12,766 | R +33.4 |
| Grand Isle County | 1,470 | 2,703 | 134 | 4,307 | R +28.6 |
| Essex County | 705 | 2,028 | 128 | 2,861 | R +46.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.