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2026 forecast · Pennsylvania Governor

Josh Shapiro is all but certain to win Pennsylvania's governorship.

Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity. The model has Shapiro ahead by 23.4 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +23.4Polls D +25.3Updated October 22, 2026
Josh Shapiro
Democrat
60.5%
3,665,476 projected votes
Stacy Garrity
Republican
37.1%
2,248,552 projected votes
100%Shapiro
0%Garrity
Shapiro all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Shapiro wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Shapiro
Model marginD +23.4Polls D +25.3
80 percent rangeD +29.8 to D +17.12,000 simulations
Projected votes6,057,593Shapiro 60.5%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Pennsylvania Governor by county

Adams CountyAllegheny CountyArmstrong CountyBeaver CountyBedford CountyBerks CountyBlair CountyBradford CountyBucks CountyButler CountyCambria CountyCameron CountyCarbon CountyCentre CountyChester CountyClarion CountyClearfield CountyClinton CountyColumbia CountyCrawford CountyCumberland CountyDauphin CountyDelaware CountyElk CountyErie CountyFayette CountyForest CountyFranklin CountyFulton CountyGreene CountyHuntingdon CountyIndiana CountyJefferson CountyJuniata CountyLackawanna CountyLancaster CountyLawrence CountyLebanon CountyLehigh CountyLuzerne CountyLycoming CountyMcKean CountyMercer CountyMifflin CountyMonroe CountyMontgomery CountyMontour CountyNorthampton CountyNorthumberland CountyPerry CountyPhiladelphia CountyPike CountyPotter CountySchuylkill CountySnyder CountySomerset CountySullivan CountySusquehanna CountyTioga CountyUnion CountyVenango CountyWarren CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWestmoreland CountyWyoming CountyYork CountyPhiladelphiaAlleghenyMontgomeryBucksDelawareLancasterYorkWestmorelandBerksLehighNorthamptonLuzerne
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Philadelphia County: Shapiro +499,672Allegheny County: Shapiro +290,564Montgomery County: Shapiro +214,015Delaware County: Shapiro +134,079Chester County: Shapiro +101,283Bucks County: Shapiro +93,128Lehigh County: Shapiro +47,352Dauphin County: Shapiro +38,826Lackawanna County: Shapiro +31,507Northampton County: Shapiro +31,105Erie County: Shapiro +30,022Berks County: Shapiro +20,803Cumberland County: Shapiro +17,740Centre County: Shapiro +17,227Monroe County: Shapiro +15,628Luzerne County: Shapiro +13,809Lancaster County: Shapiro +12,029Beaver County: Shapiro +7,252Washington County: Shapiro +3,970Montour County: Shapiro +814Franklin County: Garrity +20,282Bedford County: Garrity +11,793Somerset County: Garrity +11,611Lycoming County: Garrity +10,913Blair County: Garrity +10,878Schuylkill County: Garrity +8,585Clearfield County: Garrity +8,099Armstrong County: Garrity +7,959Bradford County: Garrity +7,191Jefferson County: Garrity +7,100Mifflin County: Garrity +6,937Butler County: Garrity +6,876Tioga County: Garrity +6,538Adams County: Garrity +6,338Huntingdon County: Garrity +6,049Cambria County: Garrity +6,015Lebanon County: Garrity +5,948Crawford County: Garrity +5,736Clarion County: Garrity +5,179Perry County: Garrity +5,169McKean County: Garrity +5,042Northumberland County: Garrity +4,755Snyder County: Garrity +4,642Mercer County: Garrity +4,481Indiana County: Garrity +4,443Fulton County: Garrity +4,196Susquehanna County: Garrity +3,967Juniata County: Garrity +3,918Venango County: Garrity +3,868Potter County: Garrity +3,486Wayne County: Garrity +3,357Elk County: Garrity +3,285Fayette County: Garrity +3,025Clinton County: Garrity +2,837Warren County: Garrity +2,624Columbia County: Garrity +2,111Carbon County: Garrity +2,008Lawrence County: Garrity +1,949Greene County: Garrity +1,900York County: Garrity +1,788Wyoming County: Garrity +1,551Pike County: Garrity +753Sullivan County: Garrity +696Westmoreland County: Garrity +530Cameron County: Garrity +492Union County: Garrity +453Forest County: Garrity +430
Shapiro +1,620,825 net votes from 20 countiesStatewide D +22.8, a 1,383,042 vote marginGarrity +237,783 net votes from 47 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Josh ShapiroDemocrat · 100% to win
60.5%
Stacy GarrityRepublican · 0% to win
37.1%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

6,057,593 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Josh Shapiro D3,665,47660.5%
Stacy Garrity R2,248,55237.1%
Ken Krawchuk L76,9311.3%
Tony Dastra G36,3460.6%
Bill Messner C30,8940.5%
Total6,057,593100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +48.2: 1 simulationsD +47.0: 0 simulationsD +45.9: 1 simulationsD +44.7: 1 simulationsD +43.5: 1 simulationsD +42.3: 1 simulationsD +41.2: 1 simulationsD +40.0: 2 simulationsD +38.8: 3 simulationsD +37.6: 3 simulationsD +36.5: 12 simulationsD +35.3: 14 simulationsD +34.1: 23 simulationsD +32.9: 22 simulationsD +31.8: 38 simulationsD +30.6: 65 simulationsD +29.4: 78 simulationsD +28.2: 111 simulationsD +27.1: 151 simulationsD +25.9: 156 simulationsD +24.7: 173 simulationsD +23.5: 180 simulationsD +22.4: 187 simulationsD +21.2: 184 simulationsD +20.0: 158 simulationsD +18.8: 139 simulationsD +17.7: 99 simulationsD +16.5: 61 simulationsD +15.3: 48 simulationsD +14.1: 33 simulationsD +13.0: 22 simulationsD +11.8: 15 simulationsD +10.6: 11 simulationsD +9.4: 2 simulationsD +8.3: 0 simulationsD +7.1: 2 simulationsD +5.9: 1 simulationsD +4.7: 0 simulationsD +3.6: 0 simulationsD +2.4: 1 simulationsD +48.8D +1.8

80 percent of simulations fall between D +29.8 and D +17.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Shapiro0% Garrity30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Pennsylvania governor polling average
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%MayJunJulAugSepOct55.7Shapiro32.0Garrity
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/SienaAug 21 · 760 LV · Gold16%Shapiro +16.0
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 5 · 1,159 LV · C15%Shapiro +25.0
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchSep 30 · 700 LV · A-15%Shapiro +21.0
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/SienaSep 21 · 615 LV · Gold14%Shapiro +20.0
Bravo Group/PennLiveOct 11 · 628 RV · NR14%Shapiro +30.1
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D)Oct 1 · 630 RV · NR12%Shapiro +19.0
Every other poll together: 13%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +25.3
Franklin & Marshall808 RV0dD +22.052 to 30
ActiVote400 LV0dD +23.061.5 to 38.5
Bravo Group/PennLive628 RV4dD +30.157.68 to 27.55
Quinnipiac University1,159 LV10dD +25.059 to 34
Z to A Research (D)630 LV14dD +19.053 to 34
Susquehanna Polling & Research700 LV15dD +21.052 to 31
Bravo Group/PennLive624 RV23dD +27.055 to 28
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University615 LV23dD +20.058 to 38
Franklin & Marshall College501 RV53dD +25.050 to 25
PennLive711 RV54dD +31.056 to 25
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena760 LV55dD +16.055 to 39
National Public Affairs (R)600 LV77dD +7.050 to 43
Quinnipiac University895 RV94dD +13.053 to 40
PennLive644 RV112dD +25.054 to 29
Franklin & Marshall College546 RV123dD +22.050 to 28
MAD Global Strategy600 LV126dD +17.048 to 31
Quinnipiac University1,579 RV381dD +14.6
Susquehanna Polling & Research700 LV382dD +17.0

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Shapiro +23.4
Chance of winning
Josh Shapiro100%
Stacy Garrity0%
Simulated vote
Josh Shapiro60.5%
Stacy Garrity37.1%
Ken Krawchuk1.3%
Tony Dastra0.6%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +1.7
FundamentalsD +22.6
With pollsD +23.6
Early vote turnoutR +0.2
With early voteD +23.4

Read from 676,296 ballots cast so far in Pennsylvania, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

59 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Josh Shapiro35
  • Barack Obamasource
  • Pennsylvania Democratic PartyState partysource
  • Pennsylvania AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
  • Pennsylvania State Education AssociationTeachers unionsource
  • Pennsylvania State Troopers AssociationPolice unionsource
  • Pennsylvania Conference of TeamstersLabor unionsource
  • Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters AssociationFirefighters unionsource
  • Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5Philadelphia police unionsource
Stacy Garrity24
  • Donald Trumpsource
  • Dave McCormickU.S. Senatorsource
  • Rick SantorumFormer U.S. Senatorsource
  • Tom CorbettFormer Governorsource
  • Doug MastrianoState Senator, 2022 nomineesource
  • Dave SundayPA Attorney Generalsource
  • Timothy DeFoorPA Auditor Generalsource
  • Scott PerryU.S. Representative PA-10source
On the air

Kyle Kondik: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Gov. Josh Shapiro's race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +28R +28Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +1.7Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +22.6With pollsaverage D +25.3D +23.6With early voteturnout so farD +23.4

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareShapiroGarrity
GenderMen47%56.041.7
Women53%64.832.9
Age18 to 2912%66.431.1
30 to 4421%60.437.3
45 to 6432%58.639.0
65+35%60.537.2
RaceWhite80%54.443.2
Black10%93.84.3
Latino5%73.923.8
Asian and other5%82.414.9
Race and genderWhite men38%48.449.2
White women43%59.737.9
Black men5%93.34.7
Black women5%94.23.9
Latino men3%72.225.4
Latino women3%75.622.1
All other races5%82.414.9

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

67 counties
CountyShapiroGarrityOtherTotalMargin
Statewide3,648,7722,265,730143,0916,057,593D +22.8
Philadelphia County564,17664,50410,223638,903D +78.3
Allegheny County454,171163,60713,897631,675D +46.1
Montgomery County328,418114,4038,577451,398D +47.5
Bucks County213,402120,2747,855341,531D +27.3
Delaware County205,32571,2465,357281,928D +47.6
Chester County187,98986,7066,754281,449D +36.1
Lancaster County127,390115,3616,480249,231D +4.9
York County100,967102,7556,085209,807R +0.7
Westmoreland County88,63389,1634,186181,982R +0.1
Berks County96,62375,8205,517177,960D +11.9
Lehigh County100,81653,4644,281158,561D +30.0
Northampton County88,02756,9224,022148,971D +21.0
Luzerne County72,14658,3373,072133,555D +10.5
Dauphin County82,16943,3433,483128,995D +30.2
Cumberland County71,07753,3373,716128,130D +13.8
Erie County73,08643,0643,100119,250D +25.4
Washington County52,38648,4162,585103,387D +4.1
Butler County46,42253,2982,873102,593R +6.7
Lackawanna County64,31832,8112,38899,517D +31.9
Beaver County43,00535,7532,18680,944D +9.0
Centre County43,57526,3482,01471,937D +24.1
Franklin County24,98445,2661,58071,830R +28.0
Monroe County42,30226,6741,91570,891D +22.2
Lebanon County27,68833,6361,63762,961R +9.4
Schuylkill County26,02834,6131,81162,452R +13.4
Cambria County27,13433,1491,41961,702R +9.5
Blair County21,81032,6881,22555,723R +19.3
Fayette County24,89327,9181,02353,834R +5.3
Lycoming County19,58430,4971,33751,418R +21.1
Adams County21,82728,1651,23051,222R +12.1
Mercer County22,37026,8511,21050,431R +8.6
Lawrence County18,55220,50196040,013R +4.6
Northumberland County15,49720,2521,76437,513R +12.5
Indiana County15,79020,23384836,871R +11.8
Crawford County14,97920,71599136,685R +15.5
Somerset County11,40123,01288335,296R +32.5
Clearfield County13,00321,10283834,943R +22.8
Armstrong County11,28919,24878331,320R +25.2
Carbon County13,38115,38985929,629R +6.4
Pike County13,72614,47966428,869R +2.5
Columbia County12,67414,78585028,309R +7.3
Bradford County9,13116,32289626,349R +27.2
Wayne County10,57113,92860325,102R +13.1
Bedford County5,89417,68743324,014R +48.9
Venango County9,24813,11659722,961R +16.8
Perry County8,08713,25661521,958R +23.2
Huntingdon County6,87012,91944620,235R +29.5
Jefferson County6,05413,15451319,721R +35.7
Mifflin County5,79212,72941618,937R +36.4
Susquehanna County7,17711,14456718,888R +20.8
Tioga County5,74012,27851918,537R +35.0
Union County8,7199,17251618,407R +2.1
Warren County7,2889,91247717,677R +14.7
Snyder County6,08710,72941417,230R +26.8
Clarion County5,73010,90944517,084R +30.0
McKean County5,71810,76037116,849R +29.7
Clinton County6,3709,20741615,993R +17.4
Greene County6,2918,19143214,914R +12.4
Elk County5,5768,86134014,777R +22.0
Wyoming County5,4236,97439612,793R +11.9
Juniata County3,1777,09524210,514R +37.0
Montour County4,5673,7532668,586D +9.7
Potter County1,9435,4293647,736R +44.7
Fulton County1,3215,5171046,942R +60.1
Sullivan County1,2031,8991103,212R +21.2
Forest County1,0451,475512,571R +15.9
Cameron County7171,209641,990R +24.2

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.