2026 forecast · Ohio Secretary Of State
Allison Russo and Robert Sprague are in a toss up for Ohio's secretary of state.
Allison Russo vs Robert Sprague, an open seat. The model has Russo ahead by 1.1 points, with a 58 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel D +1.1Updated October 22, 2026
Allison Russo
Democrat
48.5%
2,312,335 projected votes
Robert Sprague
Republican
47.3%
2,259,355 projected votes
58%Russo
42%Sprague
Russo slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Russo wins about 58 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Russo +680,899 net votes from 10 countiesStatewide D +1.1, a 52,973 vote marginSprague +627,926 net votes from 78 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,771,682 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Allison Russo D | 2,312,335 | 48.5% |
| Robert Sprague R | 2,259,355 | 47.3% |
| Tom Pruss | 199,991 | 4.2% |
| Total | 4,771,682 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Russo | Sprague | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,312,331 | 2,259,358 | 199,991 | 4,771,680 | D +1.1 |
| Franklin County | 353,945 | 132,824 | 21,293 | 508,062 | D +43.5 |
| Cuyahoga County | 354,814 | 121,450 | 20,834 | 497,098 | D +47.0 |
| Hamilton County | 211,931 | 121,932 | 14,605 | 348,468 | D +25.8 |
| Summit County | 135,230 | 83,474 | 9,567 | 228,271 | D +22.7 |
| Montgomery County | 112,420 | 92,489 | 8,965 | 213,874 | D +9.3 |
| Lucas County | 97,213 | 55,089 | 6,662 | 158,964 | D +26.5 |
| Stark County | 65,023 | 80,407 | 6,362 | 151,792 | R +10.1 |
| Butler County | 57,849 | 85,809 | 6,284 | 149,942 | R +18.6 |
| Lorain County | 66,050 | 57,766 | 5,416 | 129,232 | D +6.4 |
| Warren County | 41,116 | 67,455 | 4,749 | 113,320 | R +23.2 |
| Delaware County | 52,503 | 52,320 | 4,585 | 109,408 | D +0.2 |
| Lake County | 47,402 | 53,422 | 4,410 | 105,234 | R +5.7 |
| Mahoning County | 49,431 | 41,963 | 3,998 | 95,392 | D +7.8 |
| Clermont County | 29,927 | 57,585 | 3,828 | 91,340 | R +30.3 |
| Medina County | 36,546 | 46,383 | 3,629 | 86,558 | R +11.4 |
| Trumbull County | 37,958 | 39,579 | 3,391 | 80,928 | R +2.0 |
| Licking County | 28,690 | 44,049 | 3,182 | 75,921 | R +20.2 |
| Greene County | 30,031 | 41,794 | 3,142 | 74,967 | R +15.7 |
| Portage County | 32,326 | 33,783 | 2,893 | 69,002 | R +2.1 |
| Fairfield County | 27,403 | 37,723 | 2,850 | 67,976 | R +15.2 |
| Wood County | 25,846 | 27,257 | 2,323 | 55,426 | R +2.5 |
| Clark County | 20,653 | 28,156 | 2,135 | 50,944 | R +14.7 |
| Richland County | 14,698 | 31,308 | 2,012 | 48,018 | R +34.6 |
| Miami County | 13,321 | 32,002 | 1,983 | 47,306 | R +39.5 |
| Geauga County | 18,515 | 25,668 | 1,933 | 46,116 | R +15.5 |
| Wayne County | 14,676 | 27,113 | 1,828 | 43,617 | R +28.5 |
| Columbiana County | 11,881 | 25,891 | 1,652 | 39,424 | R +35.5 |
| Allen County | 10,813 | 25,221 | 1,576 | 37,610 | R +38.3 |
| Ashtabula County | 14,596 | 19,188 | 1,478 | 35,262 | R +13.0 |
| Tuscarawas County | 11,664 | 21,494 | 1,450 | 34,608 | R +28.4 |
| Erie County | 15,567 | 15,613 | 1,364 | 32,544 | R +0.1 |
| Muskingum County | 9,985 | 20,297 | 1,324 | 31,606 | R +32.6 |
| Hancock County | 9,516 | 20,039 | 1,292 | 30,847 | R +34.1 |
| Union County | 10,217 | 17,806 | 1,226 | 29,249 | R +25.9 |
| Ross County | 9,557 | 16,018 | 1,119 | 26,694 | R +24.2 |
| Knox County | 7,277 | 17,656 | 1,091 | 26,024 | R +39.9 |
| Jefferson County | 8,878 | 15,828 | 1,080 | 25,786 | R +26.9 |
| Belmont County | 8,604 | 15,973 | 1,075 | 25,652 | R +28.7 |
| Washington County | 8,242 | 15,908 | 1,057 | 25,207 | R +30.4 |
| Scioto County | 8,149 | 15,975 | 1,054 | 25,178 | R +31.1 |
| Sandusky County | 8,903 | 14,051 | 1,004 | 23,958 | R +21.5 |
| Pickaway County | 6,829 | 15,366 | 971 | 23,166 | R +36.9 |
| Athens County | 14,266 | 7,597 | 957 | 22,820 | D +29.2 |
| Marion County | 7,245 | 14,265 | 942 | 22,452 | R +31.3 |
| Darke County | 3,713 | 17,029 | 908 | 21,650 | R +61.5 |
| Huron County | 6,515 | 13,942 | 895 | 21,352 | R +34.8 |
| Ashland County | 5,357 | 14,868 | 885 | 21,110 | R +45.0 |
| Lawrence County | 6,312 | 13,552 | 869 | 20,733 | R +34.9 |
| Seneca County | 6,978 | 12,778 | 864 | 20,620 | R +28.1 |
| Auglaize County | 3,724 | 15,954 | 860 | 20,538 | R +59.5 |
| Shelby County | 3,524 | 15,861 | 849 | 20,234 | R +61.0 |
| Ottawa County | 8,155 | 10,845 | 832 | 19,832 | R +13.6 |
| Mercer County | 3,199 | 15,121 | 800 | 19,120 | R +62.4 |
| Logan County | 3,991 | 13,803 | 778 | 18,572 | R +52.8 |
| Fulton County | 5,520 | 11,667 | 752 | 17,939 | R +34.3 |
| Preble County | 3,811 | 12,813 | 728 | 17,352 | R +51.9 |
| Madison County | 5,277 | 10,754 | 701 | 16,732 | R +32.7 |
| Brown County | 4,080 | 11,848 | 696 | 16,624 | R +46.7 |
| Crawford County | 4,085 | 11,611 | 687 | 16,383 | R +45.9 |
| Clinton County | 4,062 | 11,559 | 683 | 16,304 | R +46.0 |
| Putnam County | 2,526 | 13,052 | 682 | 16,260 | R +64.7 |
| Champaign County | 4,551 | 10,919 | 677 | 16,147 | R +39.4 |
| Highland County | 3,289 | 11,630 | 653 | 15,572 | R +53.6 |
| Defiance County | 4,593 | 9,988 | 639 | 15,220 | R +35.5 |
| Morrow County | 3,790 | 10,482 | 624 | 14,896 | R +44.9 |
| Williams County | 3,709 | 10,183 | 607 | 14,499 | R +44.6 |
| Guernsey County | 3,893 | 9,512 | 587 | 13,992 | R +40.2 |
| Perry County | 3,933 | 8,960 | 564 | 13,457 | R +37.4 |
| Coshocton County | 3,453 | 9,170 | 552 | 13,175 | R +43.4 |
| Henry County | 2,894 | 8,281 | 489 | 11,664 | R +46.2 |
| Van Wert County | 2,436 | 8,604 | 483 | 11,523 | R +53.5 |
| Carroll County | 3,014 | 7,649 | 467 | 11,130 | R +41.6 |
| Jackson County | 2,907 | 7,629 | 460 | 10,996 | R +43.0 |
| Hocking County | 3,683 | 6,572 | 448 | 10,703 | R +27.0 |
| Holmes County | 1,607 | 8,571 | 446 | 10,624 | R +65.5 |
| Hardin County | 2,680 | 7,457 | 443 | 10,580 | R +45.1 |
| Gallia County | 2,575 | 7,537 | 442 | 10,554 | R +47.0 |
| Adams County | 2,147 | 7,409 | 418 | 9,974 | R +52.8 |
| Fayette County | 2,270 | 7,283 | 419 | 9,972 | R +50.3 |
| Pike County | 2,859 | 6,182 | 395 | 9,436 | R +35.2 |
| Wyandot County | 2,368 | 6,290 | 380 | 9,038 | R +43.4 |
| Meigs County | 2,235 | 5,774 | 350 | 8,359 | R +42.3 |
| Paulding County | 1,759 | 5,262 | 307 | 7,328 | R +47.8 |
| Harrison County | 1,620 | 3,826 | 238 | 5,684 | R +38.8 |
| Morgan County | 1,493 | 3,691 | 227 | 5,411 | R +40.6 |
| Monroe County | 1,563 | 3,591 | 226 | 5,380 | R +37.7 |
| Noble County | 1,226 | 3,723 | 217 | 5,166 | R +48.3 |
| Vinton County | 1,249 | 3,140 | 193 | 4,582 | R +41.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.5 and R +6.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +3.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +1.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +1.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +8.5 and R +6.3.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Russo | Sprague | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||