The analysis desk

Elections, explained with our own numbers

Every piece here is written by On Point Politics from data we collect or build ourselves: On Point Polling surveys, the national respondent database behind them, our forecast models and our scored record against the count. Charts and tables elsewhere on the site show the numbers. These pieces explain what they mean, where we were wrong, and what we are watching next.

2028 · November 10, 2026 · 8 minute readWho votes in 2028: what vote history says about the next electorateThe On Point electorate model splits every county into 1,152 groups by age, race, education, gender, party and how often each group votes. Here is what that says about the 2028 turnout fight.

2028 · November 10, 2026 · 9 minute readThe first On Point presidential forecast: where 2028 startsDemocrats begin the 2028 cycle as clear favorites in the On Point model, but the map that decides it is the same six states as 2024. A walk through the numbers and what could change them.2026 · November 10, 2026 · 9 minute readWhat we got right and wrong in 2026A plain account of the On Point forecast against the count: the chambers, the races we missed, where the errors clustered, and what we are changing because of them.Method · November 10, 2026 · 7 minute readWhat a 70 percent chance really means, checked against 479 racesForecast probabilities are promises about how often favorites win. We grouped every 2026 race by the chance we gave the favorite and counted how often each group came through.

Where the numbers come from

On Point Politics is published by On Point Polling, a nonpartisan survey firm that works for clients in both parties. The forecasts on this site run on that polling, on the full respondent database from every national wave, on certified election results back to 2000 and on voter file benchmarks for every state. When a piece cites a number, the same number is on a forecast, polling or accuracy page you can check, and the underlying files are public. Our method pages explain each model: the forecast methodology, the polling methodology and the 2026 accuracy report, which scores every race we forecast against the result.