2026 forecast · South Carolina Superintendent Of Education
Ellen Weaver is all but certain to win South Carolina's superintendent of education race.
Sylvia Wright vs Ellen Weaver, with Ellen Weaver running again. The model has Weaver ahead by 19.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +19.3Updated October 22, 2026
Sylvia Wright
Democrat
38.5%
782,523 projected votes
Ellen Weaver
Republican
57.8%
1,175,662 projected votes
100%Weaver
0%Wright
Weaver all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Weaver wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Wright +91,838 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide R +19.3, a 393,142 vote marginWeaver +484,980 net votes from 34 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,033,471 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Ellen Weaver R | 1,175,662 | 57.8% |
| Sylvia Wright D | 782,523 | 38.5% |
| Baba Amin Ojuok | 75,284 | 3.7% |
| Total | 2,033,471 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
46 counties| County | Wright | Weaver | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 782,522 | 1,175,664 | 75,284 | 2,033,470 | R +19.3 |
| Greenville County | 73,129 | 130,261 | 7,819 | 211,209 | R +27.1 |
| Charleston County | 94,254 | 78,144 | 6,628 | 179,026 | D +9.0 |
| Horry County | 43,244 | 108,590 | 5,837 | 157,671 | R +41.4 |
| Richland County | 102,897 | 48,479 | 5,820 | 157,196 | D +34.6 |
| Spartanburg County | 34,870 | 79,866 | 4,411 | 119,147 | R +37.8 |
| Lexington County | 34,202 | 79,056 | 4,354 | 117,612 | R +38.1 |
| York County | 43,983 | 66,973 | 4,266 | 115,222 | R +19.9 |
| Berkeley County | 34,203 | 50,506 | 3,257 | 87,966 | R +18.5 |
| Beaufort County | 32,815 | 49,047 | 3,147 | 85,009 | R +19.1 |
| Anderson County | 17,936 | 56,065 | 2,845 | 76,846 | R +49.6 |
| Aiken County | 21,675 | 42,906 | 2,483 | 67,064 | R +31.7 |
| Dorchester County | 24,936 | 33,468 | 2,246 | 60,650 | R +14.1 |
| Florence County | 20,922 | 26,752 | 1,833 | 49,507 | R +11.8 |
| Pickens County | 10,088 | 36,979 | 1,809 | 48,876 | R +55.0 |
| Lancaster County | 13,464 | 26,587 | 1,539 | 41,590 | R +31.6 |
| Sumter County | 18,905 | 16,588 | 1,365 | 36,858 | D +6.3 |
| Oconee County | 6,857 | 25,390 | 1,240 | 33,487 | R +55.3 |
| Orangeburg County | 18,779 | 10,935 | 1,142 | 30,856 | D +25.4 |
| Georgetown County | 11,426 | 18,186 | 1,138 | 30,750 | R +22.0 |
| Kershaw County | 8,198 | 17,145 | 975 | 26,318 | R +34.0 |
| Greenwood County | 8,126 | 16,352 | 942 | 25,420 | R +32.4 |
| Laurens County | 6,105 | 16,855 | 884 | 23,844 | R +45.1 |
| Darlington County | 9,656 | 13,302 | 882 | 23,840 | R +15.3 |
| Cherokee County | 3,966 | 14,765 | 721 | 19,452 | R +55.5 |
| Newberry County | 4,272 | 9,913 | 546 | 14,731 | R +38.3 |
| Chesterfield County | 4,949 | 9,149 | 542 | 14,640 | R +28.7 |
| Colleton County | 5,790 | 8,230 | 539 | 14,559 | R +16.8 |
| Jasper County | 5,955 | 7,159 | 504 | 13,618 | R +8.8 |
| Clarendon County | 5,663 | 6,953 | 485 | 13,101 | R +9.8 |
| Chester County | 4,556 | 6,742 | 434 | 11,732 | R +18.6 |
| Williamsburg County | 7,010 | 4,246 | 432 | 11,688 | D +23.6 |
| Edgefield County | 3,209 | 7,130 | 397 | 10,736 | R +36.5 |
| Marion County | 5,695 | 4,284 | 383 | 10,362 | D +13.6 |
| Union County | 3,138 | 6,387 | 366 | 9,891 | R +32.8 |
| Abbeville County | 2,571 | 6,854 | 363 | 9,788 | R +43.8 |
| Dillon County | 4,092 | 4,921 | 347 | 9,360 | R +8.8 |
| Fairfield County | 5,318 | 3,579 | 343 | 9,240 | D +18.8 |
| Marlboro County | 4,288 | 3,539 | 301 | 8,128 | D +9.2 |
| Barnwell County | 2,998 | 4,255 | 278 | 7,531 | R +16.7 |
| Saluda County | 1,848 | 5,233 | 271 | 7,352 | R +46.0 |
| Hampton County | 3,669 | 2,722 | 245 | 6,636 | D +14.3 |
| Calhoun County | 2,629 | 3,507 | 236 | 6,372 | R +13.8 |
| Lee County | 3,747 | 2,327 | 234 | 6,308 | D +22.5 |
| McCormick County | 1,949 | 2,916 | 187 | 5,052 | R +19.1 |
| Bamberg County | 2,765 | 1,831 | 177 | 4,773 | D +19.6 |
| Allendale County | 1,775 | 590 | 91 | 2,456 | D +48.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +10.1 and R +28.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +3.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +45.0 |
| Blend of every leg | R +16.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +20.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +19.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +10.1 and R +28.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Wright | Weaver | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||