Tommy Tuberville is all but certain to win Alabama's governorship.
Doug Jones vs Tommy Tuberville, an open seat. The model has Tuberville ahead by 14.6 points, winning 99 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,716,196 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Tuberville R | 968,775 | 56.4% |
| Doug Jones D | 719,275 | 41.9% |
| Other / write-in O | 28,146 | 1.6% |
| Total | 1,716,196 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +6.7 and R +22.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +12.9 | |
| Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News | 500 LV | 0d | R +11.240 to 51.2 |
| Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) | 800 RV | 20d | R +13.037 to 50 |
| yes. every kid. | 601 LV | 96d | R +8.041 to 49 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Alabama has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
32 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Terri SewellU.S. Rep., AL-07source
- Anthony DanielsAlabama House Minority Leadersource
- Bobby SingletonAlabama Senate Minority Leadersource
- Ron SparksFormer Alabama Agriculture Commissionersource
- Andy BeshearGovernor of Kentuckysource
- Phillip EnslerAlabama state representative, HD-74, Democratic nominee for lieutenant governorsource
- Jason IsbellSinger songwritersource
- Alabama AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Katie BrittU.S. Senator, Alabamasource
- Will AinsworthLieutenant Governor of Alabamasource
- Mike BraunGovernor of Indianasource
- Rick ScottU.S. Senator, Floridasource
- Nathaniel LedbetterSpeaker of the Alabama Housesource
- Garlan GudgerPresident pro tem, Alabama Senatesource
- Donald TrumpPresidentsource
- Jere BeasleyFormer Lt. Governor and acting Governor of Alabama (Democrat)source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Jones | Tuberville |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 37.5 | 60.8 |
| Women | 52% | 44.8 | 53.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 43.0 | 55.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 41.2 | 57.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 40.4 | 57.9 |
| 65+ | 34% | 41.7 | 56.7 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 26.6 | 71.7 |
| Black | 25% | 78.6 | 19.8 |
| Latino | 2% | 45.9 | 52.5 |
| Asian and other | 3% | 58.8 | 39.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 22.0 | 76.3 |
| White women | 36% | 30.8 | 67.6 |
| Black men | 12% | 75.1 | 23.4 |
| Black women | 13% | 82.0 | 16.5 |
| Latino men | 1% | 44.7 | 53.6 |
| Latino women | 1% | 47.0 | 51.4 |
| All other races | 3% | 58.8 | 39.2 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Jones | Tuberville | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 719,273 | 968,720 | 28,203 | 1,716,196 | R +14.5 |
| Jefferson County | 158,634 | 73,527 | 4,496 | 236,657 | D +35.9 |
| Madison County | 79,836 | 62,236 | 3,047 | 145,119 | D +11.9 |
| Mobile County | 68,413 | 62,198 | 2,394 | 133,005 | D +4.5 |
| Baldwin County | 22,321 | 63,024 | 2,009 | 87,354 | R +46.9 |
| Shelby County | 31,673 | 49,593 | 1,828 | 83,094 | R +21.8 |
| Montgomery County | 52,555 | 20,059 | 882 | 73,496 | D +44.4 |
| Tuscaloosa County | 33,643 | 32,903 | 1,013 | 67,559 | D +0.7 |
| Lee County | 23,217 | 29,560 | 858 | 53,635 | R +12.0 |
| Morgan County | 10,857 | 27,670 | 626 | 39,153 | R +43.2 |
| Limestone County | 12,243 | 24,941 | 682 | 37,866 | R +33.7 |
| Calhoun County | 12,688 | 23,330 | 549 | 36,567 | R +29.3 |
| Houston County | 10,586 | 22,887 | 441 | 33,914 | R +36.4 |
| Etowah County | 9,020 | 23,676 | 430 | 33,126 | R +44.4 |
| St. Clair County | 6,636 | 25,519 | 623 | 32,778 | R +57.8 |
| Cullman County | 3,620 | 27,483 | 602 | 31,705 | R +75.3 |
| Lauderdale County | 9,442 | 21,749 | 475 | 31,666 | R +39.0 |
| Elmore County | 8,333 | 22,283 | 561 | 31,177 | R +44.9 |
| Marshall County | 4,542 | 24,490 | 412 | 29,444 | R +67.8 |
| Talladega County | 10,331 | 15,492 | 314 | 26,137 | R +19.9 |
| Walker County | 4,036 | 17,400 | 370 | 21,806 | R +61.4 |
| DeKalb County | 3,100 | 18,016 | 235 | 21,351 | R +69.9 |
| Autauga County | 6,253 | 14,372 | 399 | 21,024 | R +38.7 |
| Blount County | 2,199 | 17,760 | 386 | 20,345 | R +76.5 |
| Colbert County | 6,469 | 13,414 | 262 | 20,145 | R +34.6 |
| Coffee County | 3,651 | 13,054 | 272 | 16,977 | R +55.4 |
| Jackson County | 3,175 | 13,482 | 202 | 16,859 | R +61.2 |
| Russell County | 8,792 | 6,683 | 156 | 15,631 | D +13.5 |
| Tallapoosa County | 4,550 | 10,822 | 187 | 15,559 | R +40.3 |
| Chilton County | 2,336 | 12,349 | 208 | 14,893 | R +67.3 |
| Dale County | 4,128 | 10,350 | 220 | 14,698 | R +42.4 |
| Covington County | 2,134 | 10,936 | 173 | 13,243 | R +66.5 |
| Dallas County | 9,543 | 3,508 | 105 | 13,156 | D +46.0 |
| Lawrence County | 2,959 | 9,132 | 222 | 12,313 | R +50.2 |
| Escambia County | 3,604 | 7,994 | 105 | 11,703 | R +37.5 |
| Chambers County | 4,719 | 6,153 | 154 | 11,026 | R +13.1 |
| Pike County | 4,449 | 5,902 | 105 | 10,456 | R +14.1 |
| Marion County | 1,173 | 8,913 | 133 | 10,219 | R +75.7 |
| Clarke County | 4,776 | 4,868 | 87 | 9,731 | R +1.0 |
| Geneva County | 1,288 | 8,141 | 115 | 9,544 | R +71.8 |
| Cherokee County | 1,220 | 8,107 | 103 | 9,430 | R +73.0 |
| Franklin County | 1,457 | 7,499 | 109 | 9,065 | R +66.7 |
| Winston County | 773 | 7,442 | 134 | 8,349 | R +79.8 |
| Randolph County | 1,665 | 6,340 | 106 | 8,111 | R +57.7 |
| Marengo County | 4,521 | 3,318 | 64 | 7,903 | D +15.3 |
| Barbour County | 3,808 | 3,965 | 63 | 7,836 | R +2.0 |
| Monroe County | 3,453 | 4,299 | 70 | 7,822 | R +10.9 |
| Henry County | 2,165 | 5,254 | 74 | 7,493 | R +41.1 |
| Pickens County | 3,251 | 3,942 | 66 | 7,259 | R +9.6 |
| Bibb County | 1,641 | 5,447 | 138 | 7,226 | R +52.7 |
| Butler County | 2,916 | 3,822 | 61 | 6,799 | R +13.4 |
| Macon County | 5,742 | 967 | 68 | 6,777 | D +70.5 |
| Washington County | 1,729 | 4,807 | 66 | 6,602 | R +46.5 |
| Fayette County | 1,149 | 5,168 | 90 | 6,407 | R +62.7 |
| Hale County | 3,609 | 2,203 | 47 | 5,859 | D +23.8 |
| Cleburne County | 455 | 5,070 | 79 | 5,604 | R +82.2 |
| Choctaw County | 2,461 | 3,010 | 44 | 5,515 | R +10.1 |
| Lamar County | 742 | 4,357 | 61 | 5,160 | R +69.8 |
| Crenshaw County | 1,379 | 3,721 | 57 | 5,157 | R +45.5 |
| Clay County | 938 | 4,096 | 66 | 5,100 | R +61.9 |
| Conecuh County | 2,413 | 2,411 | 39 | 4,863 | D +0.2 |
| Lowndes County | 3,433 | 1,040 | 36 | 4,509 | D +53.1 |
| Sumter County | 3,594 | 863 | 41 | 4,498 | D +60.6 |
| Wilcox County | 3,067 | 1,184 | 34 | 4,285 | D +44.0 |
| Coosa County | 1,423 | 2,744 | 68 | 4,235 | R +31.0 |
| Perry County | 2,811 | 733 | 29 | 3,573 | D +58.0 |
| Greene County | 2,892 | 411 | 26 | 3,329 | D +74.3 |
| Bullock County | 2,642 | 631 | 26 | 3,299 | D +61.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.