Jeff Merkley is all but certain to win Oregon's Senate seat.
Jeff Merkley vs David Brock Smith. The model has Merkley ahead by 30.9 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,055,143 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff Merkley D | 1,309,453 | 63.7% |
| David Brock Smith R | 673,349 | 32.8% |
| Gary Dye L | 37,815 | 1.8% |
| Brett Smith G | 34,732 | 1.7% |
| Total | 2,055,143 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +39.4 and D +22.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
Polls of the race
| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | No polls |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 155,137 ballots cast so far in Oregon, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
29 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Willamette WeekPortland newspapersource
- Oregon AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- League of Conservation VotersEnvironmental groupsource
- Planned Parenthood Action FundReproductive rights groupsource
- Our RevolutionProgressive groupsource
- End Citizens UnitedCampaign finance reform PACsource
- J Street PACPro Israel, pro peace PACsource
- Peace ActionAnti war groupsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Merkley | Smith |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 57.7 | 38.7 |
| Women | 54% | 66.4 | 30.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 66.4 | 29.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 24% | 63.2 | 33.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 30% | 60.1 | 36.3 |
| 65+ | 33% | 62.2 | 34.3 |
| RaceWhite | 81% | 58.6 | 37.9 |
| Black | 2% | 91.7 | 5.0 |
| Latino | 8% | 72.5 | 24.0 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 81.3 | 14.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 52.2 | 44.3 |
| White women | 45% | 63.8 | 32.7 |
| Latino men | 4% | 69.9 | 26.6 |
| Latino women | 4% | 75.1 | 21.4 |
| All other races | 9% | 81.3 | 14.7 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
36 counties| County | Merkley | Smith | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,306,190 | 676,194 | 72,759 | 2,055,143 | D +30.7 |
| Multnomah County | 334,790 | 44,140 | 13,743 | 392,673 | D +74.1 |
| Washington County | 201,282 | 60,880 | 9,509 | 271,671 | D +51.5 |
| Clackamas County | 137,257 | 75,158 | 7,249 | 219,664 | D +28.3 |
| Lane County | 133,861 | 52,538 | 6,361 | 192,760 | D +42.2 |
| Marion County | 77,827 | 58,000 | 5,366 | 141,193 | D +13.9 |
| Deschutes County | 71,128 | 37,988 | 3,724 | 112,840 | D +29.4 |
| Jackson County | 62,872 | 43,930 | 3,874 | 110,676 | D +17.2 |
| Linn County | 26,720 | 35,337 | 2,788 | 64,845 | R +13.2 |
| Douglas County | 19,745 | 34,624 | 2,031 | 56,400 | R +26.3 |
| Yamhill County | 26,889 | 22,806 | 2,125 | 51,820 | D +7.9 |
| Benton County | 35,510 | 10,832 | 1,631 | 47,973 | D +51.4 |
| Josephine County | 18,788 | 24,062 | 1,972 | 44,822 | R +11.8 |
| Polk County | 23,195 | 18,499 | 1,512 | 43,206 | D +10.9 |
| Coos County | 15,129 | 16,844 | 1,228 | 33,201 | R +5.2 |
| Klamath County | 10,560 | 20,638 | 1,232 | 32,430 | R +31.1 |
| Umatilla County | 10,886 | 16,801 | 915 | 28,602 | R +20.6 |
| Columbia County | 13,163 | 13,676 | 1,265 | 28,104 | R +1.9 |
| Lincoln County | 18,382 | 7,987 | 1,042 | 27,411 | D +38.0 |
| Clatsop County | 13,237 | 7,179 | 741 | 21,157 | D +28.6 |
| Tillamook County | 8,233 | 6,187 | 508 | 14,928 | D +13.7 |
| Crook County | 4,602 | 9,525 | 512 | 14,639 | R +33.6 |
| Union County | 4,492 | 8,273 | 409 | 13,174 | R +28.7 |
| Curry County | 6,019 | 6,673 | 460 | 13,152 | R +5.0 |
| Wasco County | 6,598 | 5,093 | 449 | 12,140 | D +12.4 |
| Hood River County | 8,317 | 2,797 | 356 | 11,470 | D +48.1 |
| Jefferson County | 4,116 | 6,289 | 366 | 10,771 | R +20.2 |
| Malheur County | 3,155 | 6,981 | 345 | 10,481 | R +36.5 |
| Baker County | 2,535 | 6,116 | 295 | 8,946 | R +40.0 |
| Wallowa County | 1,762 | 2,686 | 105 | 4,553 | R +20.4 |
| Morrow County | 1,435 | 2,751 | 161 | 4,347 | R +30.3 |
| Grant County | 1,030 | 3,010 | 125 | 4,165 | R +47.5 |
| Lake County | 865 | 3,063 | 126 | 4,054 | R +54.3 |
| Harney County | 948 | 2,917 | 128 | 3,993 | R +49.3 |
| Sherman County | 265 | 730 | 42 | 1,037 | R +44.7 |
| Gilliam County | 354 | 641 | 33 | 1,028 | R +27.7 |
| Wheeler County | 243 | 543 | 31 | 817 | R +36.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.