2026 forecast · Kentucky Senate
Andy Barr is all but certain to win Kentucky's Senate seat.
Charles Booker vs Andy Barr, an open seat. The model has Barr ahead by 21.2 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Safe RModel R +21.2Polls R +12.8Updated October 22, 2026
Charles Booker
Democrat
39.4%
652,904 projected votes
Andy Barr
Republican
60.6%
1,005,080 projected votes
100%Barr
0%Booker
Barr all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Barr wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe R100% chance for Barr
Model marginR +21.2Polls R +12.8
80 percent rangeR +12.4 to R +29.72,000 simulations
Projected votes1,657,984Barr 60.6%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Booker +128,050 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide R +21.6, a 358,071 vote marginBarr +486,121 net votes from 117 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Charles BookerDemocrat · 0% to win
3040506070
39.4%
Andy BarrRepublican · 100% to win
3040506070
60.6%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,657,984 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Barr R | 1,005,080 | 60.6% |
| Charles Booker D | 652,904 | 39.4% |
| Total | 1,657,984 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +12.4 and R +29.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Global Strategy Group (D)Aug 27 · 600 LV · A->99%Barr +9.0
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +12.8 | |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 600 LV | 49d | R +9.040 to 49 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 650 RV | 300d | R +11.038 to 49 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Barr +21.2
Chance of winning
Charles Booker0%
Andy Barr100%
Simulated vote
Charles Booker39.4%
Andy Barr60.6%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +31.0
FundamentalsR +29.3
With pollsR +21.3
Early vote turnoutD +0.1
With early voteR +21.2
Read from 23,121 ballots cast so far in Kentucky, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
32 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Charles Booker20
- Andy BeshearGovernor of Kentuckysource
- Jacqueline ColemanLieutenant Governor of Kentuckysource
- Elizabeth WarrenU.S. Senator from Massachusettssource
- Deval PatrickFormer Governor of Massachusettssource
- John YarmuthFormer U.S. Representative, KY-03source
- James Carvillepolitical consultantsource
- Kentucky AFL-CIOstate labor federationsource
- Communications Workers of America Kentuckylabor unionsource
Andy Barr12
- Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
- Nate Morrisbusinessman, former primary rivalsource
- John ThuneSenate Majority Leadersource
- Tim ScottU.S. Senator, NRSC chairsource
- Tom CottonU.S. Senator from Arkansassource
- Ted BuddU.S. Senator from North Carolinasource
- Steve ScaliseHouse Majority Leadersource
- Brett GuthrieU.S. Representative, KY-02source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Booker | Barr |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 34.0 | 66.0 |
| Women | 53% | 43.0 | 57.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 41.9 | 58.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 39.4 | 60.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 36.5 | 63.5 |
| 65+ | 33% | 39.7 | 60.3 |
| RaceWhite | 87% | 33.4 | 66.6 |
| Black | 7% | 85.0 | 15.0 |
| Latino | 2% | 59.0 | 41.0 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 68.6 | 31.4 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 27.9 | 72.1 |
| White women | 47% | 38.2 | 61.8 |
| Black men | 3% | 82.0 | 18.0 |
| Black women | 4% | 87.6 | 12.4 |
| Latino men | 1% | 57.1 | 42.9 |
| Latino women | 1% | 60.7 | 39.3 |
| All other races | 4% | 68.6 | 31.4 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
120 counties| County | Booker | Barr | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 649,956 | 1,008,027 | 1 | 1,657,984 | R +21.6 |
| Jefferson County | 196,311 | 103,828 | 0 | 300,139 | D +31.1 |
| Fayette County | 80,079 | 45,660 | 0 | 125,739 | D +27.7 |
| Kenton County | 25,736 | 34,991 | 0 | 60,727 | R +15.0 |
| Boone County | 15,902 | 32,701 | 0 | 48,603 | R +34.4 |
| Warren County | 17,234 | 27,407 | 0 | 44,641 | R +22.4 |
| Campbell County | 16,115 | 20,976 | 0 | 37,091 | R +12.9 |
| Daviess County | 13,577 | 23,077 | 0 | 36,654 | R +25.7 |
| Madison County | 13,591 | 22,844 | 0 | 36,435 | R +25.4 |
| Hardin County | 14,672 | 21,530 | 0 | 36,202 | R +18.8 |
| Bullitt County | 8,607 | 21,594 | 0 | 30,201 | R +42.9 |
| Oldham County | 11,928 | 17,217 | 0 | 29,145 | R +18.0 |
| McCracken County | 8,992 | 16,710 | 0 | 25,702 | R +29.8 |
| Pulaski County | 4,591 | 19,239 | 0 | 23,830 | R +61.4 |
| Scott County | 8,594 | 14,469 | 0 | 23,063 | R +25.3 |
| Franklin County | 11,440 | 10,292 | 0 | 21,732 | D +5.6 |
| Jessamine County | 7,159 | 14,121 | 0 | 21,280 | R +32.6 |
| Laurel County | 3,378 | 16,612 | 0 | 19,990 | R +66.2 |
| Pike County | 4,590 | 15,131 | 0 | 19,721 | R +53.5 |
| Shelby County | 6,422 | 12,258 | 0 | 18,680 | R +30.9 |
| Christian County | 6,761 | 11,743 | 0 | 18,504 | R +26.8 |
| Nelson County | 5,702 | 11,656 | 0 | 17,358 | R +34.1 |
| Hopkins County | 4,912 | 11,411 | 0 | 16,323 | R +39.8 |
| Boyd County | 5,767 | 10,313 | 0 | 16,080 | R +28.2 |
| Henderson County | 5,860 | 9,714 | 0 | 15,574 | R +24.6 |
| Barren County | 4,135 | 11,436 | 0 | 15,571 | R +46.9 |
| Clark County | 5,017 | 9,679 | 0 | 14,696 | R +31.6 |
| Marshall County | 3,333 | 10,874 | 0 | 14,207 | R +52.9 |
| Calloway County | 4,272 | 9,339 | 0 | 13,611 | R +37.0 |
| Graves County | 2,886 | 10,645 | 0 | 13,531 | R +57.3 |
| Greenup County | 3,982 | 9,398 | 0 | 13,380 | R +40.5 |
| Woodford County | 5,478 | 7,110 | 0 | 12,588 | R +12.8 |
| Floyd County | 4,027 | 8,475 | 0 | 12,502 | R +35.8 |
| Whitley County | 2,020 | 9,315 | 0 | 11,335 | R +64.5 |
| Boyle County | 4,331 | 6,983 | 0 | 11,314 | R +23.4 |
| Muhlenberg County | 3,226 | 7,886 | 0 | 11,112 | R +42.1 |
| Meade County | 2,931 | 7,838 | 0 | 10,769 | R +45.6 |
| Anderson County | 2,670 | 7,821 | 0 | 10,491 | R +48.9 |
| Montgomery County | 3,226 | 7,181 | 0 | 10,407 | R +38.0 |
| Knox County | 1,750 | 8,275 | 0 | 10,025 | R +65.1 |
| Taylor County | 2,356 | 7,564 | 0 | 9,920 | R +52.5 |
| Logan County | 2,173 | 7,259 | 0 | 9,432 | R +53.9 |
| Mercer County | 2,790 | 6,376 | 0 | 9,166 | R +39.0 |
| Grayson County | 2,020 | 7,071 | 0 | 9,091 | R +55.4 |
| Perry County | 2,236 | 6,718 | 0 | 8,954 | R +50.0 |
| Carter County | 2,341 | 6,499 | 0 | 8,840 | R +47.1 |
| Harlan County | 1,390 | 7,223 | 0 | 8,613 | R +67.7 |
| Spencer County | 2,128 | 6,383 | 0 | 8,511 | R +49.9 |
| Ohio County | 1,893 | 6,501 | 0 | 8,394 | R +54.8 |
| Lincoln County | 1,627 | 6,667 | 0 | 8,294 | R +60.7 |
| Grant County | 1,717 | 6,540 | 0 | 8,257 | R +58.5 |
| Rowan County | 3,245 | 4,772 | 0 | 8,017 | R +18.8 |
| Bourbon County | 2,924 | 5,085 | 0 | 8,009 | R +26.9 |
| Johnson County | 1,515 | 6,420 | 0 | 7,935 | R +61.9 |
| Breckinridge County | 1,979 | 5,897 | 0 | 7,876 | R +49.6 |
| Bell County | 1,521 | 6,348 | 0 | 7,869 | R +61.3 |
| Adair County | 1,249 | 6,086 | 0 | 7,335 | R +65.8 |
| Letcher County | 1,789 | 5,524 | 0 | 7,313 | R +51.1 |
| Russell County | 1,206 | 6,006 | 0 | 7,212 | R +66.4 |
| Allen County | 1,276 | 5,799 | 0 | 7,075 | R +63.7 |
| Harrison County | 1,828 | 5,130 | 0 | 6,958 | R +47.4 |
| Wayne County | 1,388 | 5,564 | 0 | 6,952 | R +59.9 |
| Marion County | 2,296 | 4,467 | 0 | 6,763 | R +32.0 |
| Simpson County | 1,904 | 4,794 | 0 | 6,698 | R +42.9 |
| Garrard County | 1,424 | 5,109 | 0 | 6,533 | R +56.5 |
| Hart County | 1,470 | 5,063 | 0 | 6,533 | R +54.8 |
| Henry County | 1,750 | 4,485 | 0 | 6,235 | R +43.6 |
| Clay County | 780 | 5,279 | 0 | 6,059 | R +74.0 |
| Mason County | 1,939 | 4,106 | 0 | 6,045 | R +35.7 |
| Rockcastle County | 1,009 | 4,867 | 0 | 5,876 | R +65.7 |
| Trigg County | 1,431 | 4,382 | 0 | 5,813 | R +50.5 |
| Fleming County | 1,361 | 4,364 | 0 | 5,725 | R +52.4 |
| Casey County | 709 | 4,731 | 0 | 5,440 | R +73.9 |
| Estill County | 1,164 | 4,173 | 0 | 5,337 | R +56.3 |
| Larue County | 1,235 | 4,095 | 0 | 5,330 | R +53.6 |
| Lawrence County | 1,179 | 4,150 | 0 | 5,329 | R +55.7 |
| Union County | 1,252 | 3,963 | 0 | 5,215 | R +51.9 |
| McCreary County | 721 | 4,464 | 0 | 5,185 | R +71.9 |
| Knott County | 1,336 | 3,754 | 0 | 5,090 | R +47.3 |
| Pendleton County | 1,081 | 3,996 | 0 | 5,077 | R +57.2 |
| Caldwell County | 1,122 | 3,884 | 0 | 5,006 | R +55.0 |
| Washington County | 1,320 | 3,618 | 0 | 4,938 | R +46.2 |
| Magoffin County | 1,147 | 3,591 | 0 | 4,738 | R +51.6 |
| Butler County | 903 | 3,798 | 0 | 4,701 | R +61.5 |
| Edmonson County | 998 | 3,685 | 0 | 4,683 | R +57.3 |
| Powell County | 1,305 | 3,317 | 0 | 4,622 | R +43.4 |
| Bath County | 1,310 | 3,186 | 0 | 4,496 | R +41.5 |
| Green County | 722 | 3,762 | 0 | 4,484 | R +67.5 |
| Jackson County | 514 | 3,969 | 0 | 4,483 | R +76.9 |
| Webster County | 1,157 | 3,317 | 0 | 4,474 | R +48.0 |
| Morgan County | 1,073 | 3,398 | 0 | 4,471 | R +51.9 |
| Breathitt County | 1,420 | 3,010 | 0 | 4,430 | R +35.7 |
| Monroe County | 541 | 3,772 | 0 | 4,313 | R +74.7 |
| Owen County | 877 | 3,403 | 0 | 4,280 | R +58.9 |
| Metcalfe County | 865 | 3,345 | 0 | 4,210 | R +58.6 |
| Todd County | 980 | 3,091 | 0 | 4,071 | R +51.7 |
| Lewis County | 632 | 3,375 | 0 | 4,007 | R +68.2 |
| Clinton County | 510 | 3,451 | 0 | 3,961 | R +73.9 |
| Livingston County | 819 | 3,046 | 0 | 3,865 | R +57.5 |
| McLean County | 987 | 2,823 | 0 | 3,810 | R +48.0 |
| Leslie County | 460 | 3,240 | 0 | 3,700 | R +74.9 |
| Hancock County | 1,013 | 2,627 | 0 | 3,640 | R +44.2 |
| Lyon County | 869 | 2,599 | 0 | 3,468 | R +49.6 |
| Ballard County | 718 | 2,645 | 0 | 3,363 | R +57.0 |
| Crittenden County | 602 | 2,755 | 0 | 3,357 | R +64.0 |
| Martin County | 419 | 2,906 | 0 | 3,325 | R +74.4 |
| Carroll County | 916 | 2,384 | 0 | 3,300 | R +43.9 |
| Trimble County | 848 | 2,337 | 0 | 3,185 | R +46.4 |
| Bracken County | 699 | 2,385 | 0 | 3,084 | R +54.4 |
| Gallatin County | 735 | 2,298 | 0 | 3,033 | R +51.0 |
| Cumberland County | 438 | 2,342 | 0 | 2,780 | R +68.0 |
| Menifee County | 734 | 1,980 | 0 | 2,714 | R +45.6 |
| Nicholas County | 771 | 1,793 | 0 | 2,564 | R +39.6 |
| Wolfe County | 740 | 1,694 | 1 | 2,435 | R +39.0 |
| Lee County | 463 | 1,867 | 0 | 2,330 | R +59.6 |
| Carlisle County | 443 | 1,739 | 0 | 2,182 | R +58.9 |
| Elliott County | 556 | 1,532 | 0 | 2,088 | R +46.4 |
| Fulton County | 639 | 1,270 | 0 | 1,909 | R +32.7 |
| Hickman County | 402 | 1,326 | 0 | 1,728 | R +53.0 |
| Owsley County | 250 | 1,391 | 0 | 1,641 | R +69.5 |
| Robertson County | 203 | 653 | 0 | 856 | R +52.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.