2026 forecast · Illinois Senate
Juliana Stratton is all but certain to win Illinois's Senate seat.
Juliana Stratton vs Don Tracy, an open seat. The model has Stratton ahead by 26.8 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Safe DModel D +26.8Polls D +14.1Updated October 22, 2026
Juliana Stratton
Democrat
62.0%
2,884,432 projected votes
Don Tracy
Republican
35.2%
1,637,767 projected votes
100%Stratton
0%Tracy
Stratton all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Stratton wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Stratton
Model marginD +26.8Polls D +14.1
80 percent rangeD +35.5 to D +17.72,000 simulations
Projected votes4,650,554Stratton 62.0%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Stratton +1,473,604 net votes from 18 countiesStatewide D +26.5, a 1,233,247 vote marginTracy +240,357 net votes from 84 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Juliana StrattonDemocrat · 100% to win
3040506070
62.0%
Don TracyRepublican · 0% to win
3040506070
35.2%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
4,650,554 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Juliana Stratton D | 2,884,432 | 62.0% |
| Don Tracy R | 1,637,767 | 35.2% |
| Other / independents O | 127,890 | 2.7% |
| Total | 4,650,554 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +35.5 and D +17.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly (D)Oct 1 · 569 LV · D->99%Stratton +13.0
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +14.1 | |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 0d | D +17.058.5 to 41.5 |
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly (D) | 569 LV | 14d | D +13.049 to 36 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Stratton +26.8
Chance of winning
Juliana Stratton100%
Don Tracy0%
Simulated vote
Juliana Stratton62.0%
Don Tracy35.2%
Other / independents2.8%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +11.1
FundamentalsD +26.3
With pollsD +26.5
Early vote turnoutD +0.3
With early voteD +26.8
Read from 605,424 ballots cast so far in Illinois, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
46 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Juliana Stratton20
- JB PritzkerGovernor of Illinoissource
- Tammy DuckworthU.S. Senator from Illinoissource
- Barack ObamaFormer Presidentsource
- Elizabeth WarrenU.S. Senator from Massachusettssource
- Tammy BaldwinU.S. Senator from Wisconsinsource
- Angela AlsobrooksU.S. Senator from Marylandsource
- Carol Moseley BraunFormer U.S. Senator from Illinoissource
- Jesse WhiteFormer Illinois Secretary of Statesource
Don Tracy26
- Mike BostU.S. Representative, IL-12source
- Darin LaHoodU.S. Representative, IL-16source
- Mary MillerU.S. Representative, IL-15source
- Leslie MungerFormer Illinois Comptrollersource
- John CurranIllinois Senate Minority Leadersource
- Karen HasaraFormer Springfield mayorsource
- Chris BalkemaIllinois state senator, 53rd districtsource
- Larry BomkeFormer Illinois state senator, 50th districtsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Stratton | Tracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 57.6 | 39.6 |
| Women | 54% | 64.4 | 32.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 65.2 | 32.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 60.8 | 36.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 59.8 | 37.5 |
| 65+ | 32% | 61.3 | 36.0 |
| RaceWhite | 68% | 50.9 | 46.5 |
| Black | 13% | 90.5 | 6.5 |
| Latino | 11% | 75.8 | 21.2 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 81.8 | 14.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 45.4 | 52.0 |
| White women | 37% | 55.5 | 41.9 |
| Black men | 6% | 89.8 | 7.2 |
| Black women | 7% | 91.1 | 5.9 |
| Latino men | 5% | 73.1 | 23.8 |
| Latino women | 6% | 78.3 | 18.6 |
| All other races | 7% | 81.8 | 14.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
102 counties| County | Stratton | Tracy | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,877,911 | 1,644,664 | 127,979 | 4,650,554 | D +26.5 |
| Cook County | 1,376,875 | 319,538 | 63,352 | 1,759,765 | D +60.0 |
| DuPage County | 236,993 | 125,903 | 8,543 | 371,439 | D +29.9 |
| Will County | 149,254 | 103,041 | 7,267 | 259,562 | D +17.8 |
| Lake County | 169,709 | 80,688 | 5,110 | 255,507 | D +34.9 |
| Kane County | 108,838 | 64,706 | 4,450 | 177,994 | D +24.8 |
| McHenry County | 67,263 | 55,287 | 3,530 | 126,080 | D +9.5 |
| Madison County | 53,130 | 51,597 | 2,247 | 106,974 | D +1.3 |
| St. Clair County | 59,312 | 37,282 | 1,972 | 98,566 | D +22.4 |
| Winnebago County | 53,506 | 42,689 | 2,164 | 98,359 | D +11.0 |
| Sangamon County | 42,688 | 39,788 | 1,512 | 83,988 | D +3.4 |
| Champaign County | 51,023 | 24,311 | 1,852 | 77,186 | D +34.6 |
| McLean County | 38,707 | 30,700 | 1,562 | 70,969 | D +11.3 |
| Peoria County | 37,365 | 26,824 | 1,243 | 65,432 | D +16.1 |
| Tazewell County | 22,560 | 30,700 | 1,142 | 54,402 | R +14.9 |
| Rock Island County | 32,009 | 19,206 | 885 | 52,100 | D +24.5 |
| Kendall County | 28,839 | 20,582 | 1,476 | 50,897 | D +16.3 |
| LaSalle County | 19,413 | 21,518 | 1,136 | 42,067 | R +5.0 |
| DeKalb County | 21,852 | 15,254 | 1,187 | 38,293 | D +17.3 |
| Kankakee County | 16,864 | 20,083 | 1,182 | 38,129 | R +8.4 |
| Macon County | 16,932 | 20,241 | 759 | 37,932 | R +8.7 |
| Williamson County | 9,650 | 16,533 | 507 | 26,690 | R +25.9 |
| Adams County | 7,444 | 18,701 | 398 | 26,543 | R +42.4 |
| Vermilion County | 9,336 | 14,509 | 512 | 24,357 | R +21.3 |
| Whiteside County | 10,364 | 10,486 | 447 | 21,297 | R +0.6 |
| Grundy County | 8,537 | 11,568 | 600 | 20,705 | R +14.7 |
| Ogle County | 8,248 | 11,908 | 475 | 20,631 | R +17.8 |
| Henry County | 8,653 | 11,293 | 345 | 20,291 | R +13.0 |
| Jackson County | 10,919 | 7,997 | 445 | 19,361 | D +15.1 |
| Boone County | 8,951 | 9,546 | 474 | 18,971 | R +3.1 |
| Macoupin County | 6,722 | 11,756 | 397 | 18,875 | R +26.6 |
| Knox County | 9,440 | 8,725 | 333 | 18,498 | D +3.9 |
| Coles County | 7,229 | 10,223 | 375 | 17,827 | R +16.8 |
| Stephenson County | 7,931 | 9,122 | 383 | 17,436 | R +6.8 |
| Woodford County | 6,075 | 10,919 | 312 | 17,306 | R +28.0 |
| Monroe County | 6,291 | 9,960 | 264 | 16,515 | R +22.2 |
| Effingham County | 3,291 | 12,487 | 224 | 16,002 | R +57.5 |
| Clinton County | 4,384 | 10,867 | 296 | 15,547 | R +41.7 |
| Franklin County | 4,421 | 9,742 | 245 | 14,408 | R +37.0 |
| Jefferson County | 3,993 | 9,561 | 291 | 13,845 | R +40.2 |
| Marion County | 4,426 | 9,091 | 248 | 13,765 | R +33.9 |
| Livingston County | 4,114 | 9,128 | 312 | 13,554 | R +37.0 |
| Fulton County | 5,832 | 7,320 | 296 | 13,448 | R +11.1 |
| Bureau County | 5,454 | 7,468 | 291 | 13,213 | R +15.3 |
| Christian County | 4,046 | 8,720 | 287 | 13,053 | R +35.8 |
| Lee County | 5,372 | 7,254 | 297 | 12,923 | R +14.5 |
| Morgan County | 4,540 | 7,561 | 197 | 12,298 | R +24.6 |
| Randolph County | 3,608 | 8,161 | 179 | 11,948 | R +38.1 |
| Montgomery County | 3,697 | 7,078 | 220 | 10,995 | R +30.8 |
| Iroquois County | 2,679 | 7,965 | 240 | 10,884 | R +48.5 |
| Logan County | 3,357 | 6,893 | 209 | 10,459 | R +33.8 |
| McDonough County | 4,622 | 5,520 | 196 | 10,338 | R +8.6 |
| Jo Daviess County | 4,497 | 5,233 | 199 | 9,929 | R +7.5 |
| Shelby County | 2,277 | 7,365 | 187 | 9,829 | R +51.7 |
| Jersey County | 2,819 | 6,649 | 193 | 9,661 | R +39.7 |
| Saline County | 2,743 | 5,803 | 175 | 8,721 | R +35.1 |
| Fayette County | 1,758 | 6,363 | 132 | 8,253 | R +55.8 |
| Perry County | 2,431 | 5,455 | 120 | 8,006 | R +37.8 |
| Piatt County | 2,963 | 4,703 | 156 | 7,822 | R +22.3 |
| Hancock County | 2,158 | 5,243 | 128 | 7,529 | R +41.0 |
| Crawford County | 1,844 | 5,450 | 156 | 7,450 | R +48.4 |
| Union County | 2,513 | 4,346 | 133 | 6,992 | R +26.2 |
| Douglas County | 1,971 | 4,838 | 125 | 6,934 | R +41.4 |
| Wayne County | 1,352 | 5,419 | 131 | 6,902 | R +58.9 |
| Mercer County | 2,914 | 3,838 | 138 | 6,890 | R +13.3 |
| Bond County | 2,246 | 4,355 | 135 | 6,736 | R +31.3 |
| Clark County | 1,748 | 4,755 | 126 | 6,629 | R +45.3 |
| Edgar County | 1,732 | 4,683 | 125 | 6,540 | R +45.1 |
| Richland County | 1,766 | 4,530 | 122 | 6,418 | R +43.1 |
| De Witt County | 1,973 | 4,258 | 140 | 6,371 | R +35.8 |
| Pike County | 1,374 | 4,860 | 101 | 6,335 | R +54.9 |
| Carroll County | 2,320 | 3,876 | 133 | 6,329 | R +24.6 |
| Washington County | 1,624 | 4,427 | 111 | 6,162 | R +45.5 |
| Warren County | 2,664 | 3,392 | 99 | 6,155 | R +11.8 |
| White County | 1,497 | 4,230 | 105 | 5,832 | R +46.9 |
| Clay County | 1,090 | 4,580 | 104 | 5,774 | R +60.5 |
| Moultrie County | 1,458 | 3,879 | 103 | 5,440 | R +44.5 |
| Menard County | 1,827 | 3,515 | 76 | 5,418 | R +31.1 |
| Massac County | 1,593 | 3,691 | 86 | 5,370 | R +39.1 |
| Ford County | 1,562 | 3,696 | 102 | 5,360 | R +39.8 |
| Lawrence County | 1,387 | 3,767 | 121 | 5,275 | R +45.1 |
| Mason County | 1,811 | 3,308 | 105 | 5,224 | R +28.6 |
| Johnson County | 1,225 | 3,840 | 98 | 5,163 | R +50.8 |
| Marshall County | 1,846 | 3,018 | 94 | 4,958 | R +23.6 |
| Greene County | 1,248 | 3,538 | 97 | 4,883 | R +46.9 |
| Cumberland County | 1,143 | 3,599 | 107 | 4,849 | R +50.7 |
| Jasper County | 981 | 3,523 | 78 | 4,582 | R +55.5 |
| Wabash County | 1,221 | 3,035 | 82 | 4,338 | R +41.8 |
| Cass County | 1,475 | 2,750 | 69 | 4,294 | R +29.7 |
| Hamilton County | 783 | 2,651 | 70 | 3,504 | R +53.4 |
| Schuyler County | 1,004 | 2,129 | 63 | 3,196 | R +35.2 |
| Henderson County | 1,064 | 1,811 | 56 | 2,931 | R +25.5 |
| Edwards County | 495 | 2,244 | 45 | 2,784 | R +62.8 |
| Putnam County | 1,203 | 1,485 | 61 | 2,749 | R +10.2 |
| Stark County | 753 | 1,506 | 49 | 2,308 | R +32.7 |
| Calhoun County | 653 | 1,592 | 37 | 2,282 | R +41.1 |
| Scott County | 527 | 1,623 | 35 | 2,185 | R +50.0 |
| Brown County | 494 | 1,620 | 41 | 2,155 | R +52.3 |
| Gallatin County | 622 | 1,487 | 45 | 2,154 | R +40.2 |
| Pulaski County | 812 | 1,224 | 27 | 2,063 | R +19.9 |
| Alexander County | 869 | 963 | 34 | 1,866 | R +5.2 |
| Pope County | 434 | 1,283 | 28 | 1,745 | R +48.7 |
| Hardin County | 389 | 1,236 | 30 | 1,655 | R +51.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.