2026 ballot measure forecast
Minnesota Constitutional Amendment 1
Permanent School Fund payouts to school districts
Replaces the requirement that Permanent School Fund principal stay perpetual and inviolate with a duty to preserve its purchasing power, letting companion law distribute 4.5% of the fund's three-year average value to districts each year, effective July 1, 2027. The forecast has Yes at 65.1 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 88% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
88%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.1%80% range 52 to 76
Needs
53.2%a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580- History and structure
- 65.1% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 65.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Must win a majority of ALL ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as No. Ballot label number not confirmed.
The campaign
Sponsors Sen. Mary Kunesh (DFL) and Rep. Spencer Igo (R); House 134-0 (some sources 133-0), Senate 43-24 party line; education coalition incl. Education Minnesota backs it; no organized opposition or money reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +793,477 net votes from 87 countiesStatewide Yes +30.2, a 793,477 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,631,751 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,712,614 | 65.1% |
| No | 919,137 | 34.9% |
| Total | 2,631,751 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin County | 418,338 | 190,197 | 608,535 | 68.7% |
| Ramsey County | 162,763 | 73,748 | 236,511 | 68.8% |
| Dakota County | 137,959 | 71,735 | 209,694 | 65.8% |
| Anoka County | 106,319 | 59,355 | 165,674 | 64.2% |
| Washington County | 88,372 | 46,711 | 135,083 | 65.4% |
| St. Louis County | 63,992 | 33,161 | 97,153 | 65.9% |
| Olmsted County | 48,362 | 25,377 | 73,739 | 65.6% |
| Scott County | 45,251 | 25,683 | 70,934 | 63.8% |
| Stearns County | 42,821 | 26,253 | 69,074 | 62.0% |
| Wright County | 41,588 | 25,790 | 67,378 | 61.7% |
| Carver County | 34,717 | 19,456 | 54,173 | 64.1% |
| Sherburne County | 27,008 | 17,174 | 44,182 | 61.1% |
| Crow Wing County | 20,590 | 12,880 | 33,470 | 61.5% |
| Rice County | 19,008 | 10,527 | 29,535 | 64.4% |
| Blue Earth County | 19,017 | 10,477 | 29,494 | 64.5% |
| Otter Tail County | 17,760 | 11,256 | 29,016 | 61.2% |
| Chisago County | 16,599 | 10,387 | 26,986 | 61.5% |
| Clay County | 16,680 | 9,126 | 25,806 | 64.6% |
| Goodhue County | 14,603 | 8,567 | 23,170 | 63.0% |
| Winona County | 14,251 | 7,970 | 22,221 | 64.1% |
| Itasca County | 13,549 | 8,071 | 21,620 | 62.7% |
| Douglas County | 12,192 | 7,758 | 19,950 | 61.1% |
| Beltrami County | 12,595 | 7,066 | 19,661 | 64.1% |
| Isanti County | 11,789 | 7,726 | 19,515 | 60.4% |
| Kandiyohi County | 11,508 | 7,189 | 18,697 | 61.5% |
| Benton County | 10,674 | 6,822 | 17,496 | 61.0% |
| Steele County | 10,418 | 6,325 | 16,743 | 62.2% |
| McLeod County | 10,112 | 6,524 | 16,636 | 60.8% |
| Carlton County | 10,658 | 5,904 | 16,562 | 64.4% |
| Nicollet County | 10,237 | 5,624 | 15,861 | 64.5% |
| Morrison County | 9,234 | 6,554 | 15,788 | 58.5% |
| Becker County | 9,486 | 5,982 | 15,468 | 61.3% |
| Cass County | 9,471 | 5,979 | 15,450 | 61.3% |
| Mower County | 9,526 | 5,451 | 14,977 | 63.6% |
| Le Sueur County | 8,326 | 5,264 | 13,590 | 61.3% |
| Freeborn County | 8,270 | 4,950 | 13,220 | 62.6% |
| Pine County | 7,956 | 5,065 | 13,021 | 61.1% |
| Polk County | 7,318 | 4,629 | 11,947 | 61.3% |
| Brown County | 7,178 | 4,572 | 11,750 | 61.1% |
| Mille Lacs County | 6,996 | 4,575 | 11,571 | 60.5% |
| Todd County | 6,379 | 4,462 | 10,841 | 58.8% |
| Hubbard County | 6,664 | 4,172 | 10,836 | 61.5% |
| Meeker County | 6,515 | 4,302 | 10,817 | 60.2% |
| Wabasha County | 6,635 | 4,094 | 10,729 | 61.8% |
| Lyon County | 6,357 | 3,987 | 10,344 | 61.5% |
| Fillmore County | 6,006 | 3,661 | 9,667 | 62.1% |
| Dodge County | 5,923 | 3,719 | 9,642 | 61.4% |
| Houston County | 5,645 | 3,311 | 8,956 | 63.0% |
| Martin County | 5,175 | 3,365 | 8,540 | 60.6% |
| Aitkin County | 5,160 | 3,221 | 8,381 | 61.6% |
| Waseca County | 5,119 | 3,220 | 8,339 | 61.4% |
| Kanabec County | 4,444 | 2,928 | 7,372 | 60.3% |
| Sibley County | 4,046 | 2,676 | 6,722 | 60.2% |
| Roseau County | 3,929 | 2,683 | 6,612 | 59.4% |
| Redwood County | 3,963 | 2,622 | 6,585 | 60.2% |
| Nobles County | 3,969 | 2,531 | 6,500 | 61.1% |
| Renville County | 3,820 | 2,508 | 6,328 | 60.4% |
| Wadena County | 3,658 | 2,527 | 6,185 | 59.1% |
| Faribault County | 3,749 | 2,413 | 6,162 | 60.8% |
| Pennington County | 3,523 | 2,207 | 5,730 | 61.5% |
| Pope County | 3,488 | 2,186 | 5,674 | 61.5% |
| Lake County | 3,672 | 1,981 | 5,653 | 65.0% |
| Koochiching County | 3,348 | 2,042 | 5,390 | 62.1% |
| Chippewa County | 3,062 | 1,940 | 5,002 | 61.2% |
| Cottonwood County | 2,858 | 1,872 | 4,730 | 60.4% |
| Jackson County | 2,749 | 1,809 | 4,558 | 60.3% |
| Yellow Medicine County | 2,612 | 1,708 | 4,320 | 60.5% |
| Rock County | 2,574 | 1,671 | 4,245 | 60.6% |
| Stevens County | 2,568 | 1,576 | 4,144 | 62.0% |
| Swift County | 2,476 | 1,569 | 4,045 | 61.2% |
| Marshall County | 2,377 | 1,645 | 4,022 | 59.1% |
| Watonwan County | 2,431 | 1,498 | 3,929 | 61.9% |
| Murray County | 2,319 | 1,529 | 3,848 | 60.3% |
| Pipestone County | 2,290 | 1,555 | 3,845 | 59.6% |
| Clearwater County | 2,196 | 1,506 | 3,702 | 59.3% |
| Cook County | 2,146 | 1,013 | 3,159 | 67.9% |
| Lac qui Parle County | 1,939 | 1,218 | 3,157 | 61.4% |
| Grant County | 1,771 | 1,105 | 2,876 | 61.6% |
| Wilkin County | 1,606 | 1,042 | 2,648 | 60.6% |
| Norman County | 1,622 | 976 | 2,598 | 62.4% |
| Lincoln County | 1,530 | 987 | 2,517 | 60.8% |
| Big Stone County | 1,452 | 901 | 2,353 | 61.7% |
| Kittson County | 1,220 | 742 | 1,962 | 62.2% |
| Lake of the Woods County | 1,106 | 746 | 1,852 | 59.7% |
| Mahnomen County | 1,126 | 640 | 1,766 | 63.8% |
| Red Lake County | 999 | 642 | 1,641 | 60.9% |
| Traverse County | 907 | 569 | 1,476 | 61.4% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 53.2 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 1 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Minnesota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, sspps.org, fox9.com. All measures.