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2026 forecast · Rhode Island Governor

Helena Foulkes is very likely to win Rhode Island's governorship.

Helena Foulkes vs Ken Block, an open seat. The model has Foulkes ahead by 10.4 points, winning 97 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +10.4Polls D +8.6Updated October 22, 2026
Helena Foulkes
Democrat
47.8%
203,436 projected votes
Ken Block
Independent
37.4%
159,301 projected votes
97%Foulkes
3%Block
Foulkes all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Foulkes wins about 97 of 100
RatingLikely D97% chance for Foulkes
Model marginD +10.4Polls D +8.6
80 percent rangeD +16.9 to D +3.62,000 simulations
Projected votes425,847Foulkes 47.8%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Rhode Island Governor by county

Bristol CountyKent CountyNewport CountyProvidence CountyWashington CountyProvidenceKentWashingtonNewportBristol
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Providence County: Foulkes +28,169Newport County: Foulkes +6,644Bristol County: Foulkes +5,769Washington County: Foulkes +4,773Kent County: Block +1,976
Foulkes +45,355 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide D +10.2, a 43,379 vote marginBlock +1,976 net votes from 1 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Helena FoulkesDemocrat · 97% to win
47.8%
Ken BlockI
37.4%
Aaron GuckianRepublican · 3% to win
36.5%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

425,847 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Helena Foulkes D203,43647.8%
Ken Block I159,30137.4%
Aaron Guckian R155,63436.5%
Jay Gotra I3,3220.8%
C.D. Reynolds I3,3220.8%
Total425,847100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +29.4: 1 simulationsD +28.4: 0 simulationsD +27.3: 0 simulationsD +26.2: 1 simulationsD +25.1: 3 simulationsD +24.1: 4 simulationsD +23.0: 9 simulationsD +21.9: 15 simulationsD +20.8: 20 simulationsD +19.8: 34 simulationsD +18.7: 47 simulationsD +17.6: 56 simulationsD +16.5: 74 simulationsD +15.5: 117 simulationsD +14.4: 121 simulationsD +13.3: 141 simulationsD +12.2: 171 simulationsD +11.2: 166 simulationsD +10.1: 170 simulationsD +9.0: 171 simulationsD +7.9: 155 simulationsD +6.9: 105 simulationsD +5.8: 108 simulationsD +4.7: 76 simulationsD +3.6: 63 simulationsD +2.6: 51 simulationsD +1.5: 34 simulationsD +0.4: 25 simulationsR +0.7: 17 simulationsR +1.7: 11 simulationsR +2.8: 10 simulationsR +3.9: 5 simulationsR +5.0: 6 simulationsR +6.0: 3 simulationsR +7.1: 2 simulationsR +8.2: 2 simulationsR +9.3: 3 simulationsR +10.3: 0 simulationsR +11.4: 1 simulationsR +12.5: 2 simulationsD +30.0R +13.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +16.9 and D +3.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%97% Foulkes3% Block30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Rhode Island governor polling average
0%10%20%30%40%50%Aug 23Aug 30Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4Oct 1144.0Foulkes10.0Guckian
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Emerson College/WPRIOct 11 · 800 LV · Gold96%Foulkes +34.0
Emerson CollegeAug 22 · 1,000 LV · Gold2.7%Foulkes +27.0
Opinion DiagnosticsSep 25 · 800 LV · NR1.3%Foulkes +22.0
University of New HampshireSep 21 · 598 LV · C-<1%Foulkes +27.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageD +8.6
Emerson College/WPRI800 LV4dD +9.044 to 35
Emerson College for WPRI 12 News800 LV4dD +9.7
Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research815 LV7dD +11.039 to 28
Opinion Diagnostics (D)800 LV20dD +17.041 to 24
University of New Hampshire598 LV24dD +15.044 to 29
University of New Hampshire750 LV52dD +21.040 to 19
Emerson College1,000 LV54dD +24.045 to 21
University of New Hampshire664 LV114dD +19.2
Opinion Diagnostics (D)802 LV182dD +14.5

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Foulkes +10.4
Chance of winning
Helena Foulkes97%
Ken Block3%
Simulated vote
Helena Foulkes47.8%
Ken Block37.4%
Aaron Guckian36.5%
Jay Gotra0.8%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +14.2
FundamentalsD +19.4
With pollsD +11.7
Early vote turnoutR +1.3
With early voteD +10.4

Read from 44,295 ballots cast so far in Rhode Island, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

15 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Helena Foulkes13
  • Dan McKeeGovernor of Rhode Island, lost primarysource
  • Peter NeronhaRI Attorney Generalsource
  • Frank PicozziMayor of Warwick (independent)source
  • Joseph Polisena Jr.Mayor of Johnstonsource
  • UNITE HERE Local 26Hospitality workers unionsource
  • Rhode Island Association of Democratic City and Town ChairsState association of local Democratic chairssource
  • Rhode Island AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
  • SEIU 1199 New EnglandHealthcare workers unionsource
Ken Block2
  • Elaine PelinoMAGA Republican, narrowly lost GOP primarysource
  • Reform Party of the United StatesNational minor partysource
Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +23R +23Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +14.2Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +19.4With pollsaverage D +8.6D +11.7With early voteturnout so farD +10.4

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareFoulkesBlock
GenderMen46%45.238.7
Women54%54.631.7
Age18 to 2913%50.035.4
30 to 4422%46.937.9
45 to 6432%48.835.9
65+33%54.131.7
RaceWhite80%45.638.7
Black5%80.211.2
Latino10%63.024.8
Asian and other6%69.618.6
Race and genderWhite men36%39.043.6
White women44%50.934.8
Black men2%77.413.3
Black women3%82.79.3
Latino men5%60.926.5
Latino women5%65.123.2
All other races6%69.618.6

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

5 counties
CountyFoulkesBlockOtherTotalMargin
Statewide203,099159,72063,028425,847D +10.2
Providence County110,17082,00130,765222,936D +12.8
Kent County31,03933,01512,65776,711R +2.6
Washington County29,81525,0429,98564,842D +7.2
Newport County19,54012,8965,41337,849D +17.7
Bristol County12,5356,7664,20823,509D +24.6

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.