2026 forecast · Vermont Attorney General
Charity Clark is all but certain to win Vermont's attorney general race.
Charity Clark vs Ed Kemon, with Charity Clark running again. The model has Clark ahead by 13.6 points, with a 97 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +13.6Updated October 22, 2026
Charity Clark
Democrat
55.5%
182,816 projected votes
Ed Kemon
Republican
42.0%
138,161 projected votes
97%Clark
3%Kemon
Clark all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Clark wins about 97 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Clark +57,441 net votes from 8 countiesStatewide D +13.6, a 44,657 vote marginKemon +12,784 net votes from 6 counties
Projected statewide vote
329,223 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Charity Clark D | 182,816 | 55.5% |
| Ed Kemon R | 138,161 | 42.0% |
| Other candidates | 8,245 | 2.5% |
| Total | 329,223 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Clark | Kemon | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 182,818 | 138,161 | 8,244 | 329,223 | D +13.6 |
| Chittenden County | 56,791 | 29,469 | 2,216 | 88,476 | D +30.9 |
| Washington County | 19,400 | 11,472 | 793 | 31,665 | D +25.0 |
| Windsor County | 17,664 | 12,047 | 763 | 30,474 | D +18.4 |
| Rutland County | 12,392 | 16,963 | 754 | 30,109 | R +15.2 |
| Windham County | 15,985 | 6,728 | 584 | 23,297 | D +39.7 |
| Franklin County | 9,131 | 13,464 | 580 | 23,175 | R +18.7 |
| Addison County | 11,451 | 8,284 | 507 | 20,242 | D +15.6 |
| Bennington County | 9,881 | 8,011 | 459 | 18,351 | D +10.2 |
| Orange County | 7,892 | 7,322 | 390 | 15,604 | D +3.6 |
| Caledonia County | 6,701 | 7,671 | 369 | 14,741 | R +6.6 |
| Lamoille County | 7,268 | 5,558 | 329 | 13,155 | D +13.0 |
| Orleans County | 5,256 | 7,190 | 320 | 12,766 | R +15.1 |
| Grand Isle County | 1,973 | 2,226 | 108 | 4,307 | R +5.9 |
| Essex County | 1,033 | 1,756 | 72 | 2,861 | R +25.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +22.6 and D +4.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +8.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +43.3 |
| Blend of every leg | D +10.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +13.9 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +13.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +22.6 and D +4.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Clark | Kemon | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||