2026 ballot measure forecast
West Virginia Amendment 1
Only U.S. citizens may vote
Adds a requirement to the constitution that only U.S. citizens who are West Virginia residents may vote, barring local noncitizen voting. The forecast has Yes at 86.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
86.8%80% range 79 to 92
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 86.8% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 86.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
SJR 9 passed unanimously; Americans for Citizen Voting supports; League of Women Voters of WV and WV Citizen Action Group oppose; no money reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +421,443 net votes from 55 countiesStatewide Yes +73.6, a 421,443 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
572,301 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 496,872 | 86.8% |
| No | 75,429 | 13.2% |
| Total | 572,301 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanawha County | 47,426 | 10,431 | 57,857 | 82.0% |
| Berkeley County | 32,817 | 5,441 | 38,258 | 85.8% |
| Monongalia County | 27,815 | 7,392 | 35,207 | 79.0% |
| Cabell County | 23,416 | 4,822 | 28,238 | 82.9% |
| Wood County | 24,431 | 3,585 | 28,016 | 87.2% |
| Raleigh County | 20,458 | 2,425 | 22,883 | 89.4% |
| Harrison County | 18,842 | 2,859 | 21,701 | 86.8% |
| Jefferson County | 17,136 | 3,862 | 20,998 | 81.6% |
| Putnam County | 17,362 | 2,397 | 19,759 | 87.9% |
| Marion County | 15,813 | 2,815 | 18,628 | 84.9% |
| Mercer County | 15,996 | 1,783 | 17,779 | 90.0% |
| Ohio County | 12,109 | 2,342 | 14,451 | 83.8% |
| Fayette County | 10,248 | 1,533 | 11,781 | 87.0% |
| Wayne County | 10,439 | 1,260 | 11,699 | 89.2% |
| Greenbrier County | 10,178 | 1,514 | 11,692 | 87.1% |
| Preston County | 9,667 | 1,078 | 10,745 | 90.0% |
| Marshall County | 8,941 | 1,152 | 10,093 | 88.6% |
| Hancock County | 8,518 | 1,168 | 9,686 | 87.9% |
| Jackson County | 8,429 | 960 | 9,389 | 89.8% |
| Mineral County | 8,411 | 883 | 9,294 | 90.5% |
| Randolph County | 7,824 | 1,083 | 8,907 | 87.8% |
| Logan County | 7,815 | 703 | 8,518 | 91.7% |
| Mason County | 6,989 | 763 | 7,752 | 90.2% |
| Nicholas County | 6,959 | 728 | 7,687 | 90.5% |
| Hampshire County | 6,835 | 677 | 7,512 | 91.0% |
| Upshur County | 6,671 | 748 | 7,419 | 89.9% |
| Brooke County | 6,422 | 915 | 7,337 | 87.5% |
| Mingo County | 5,995 | 439 | 6,434 | 93.2% |
| Boone County | 5,620 | 619 | 6,239 | 90.1% |
| Morgan County | 5,549 | 641 | 6,190 | 89.6% |
| Wyoming County | 5,245 | 395 | 5,640 | 93.0% |
| Lincoln County | 5,014 | 494 | 5,508 | 91.0% |
| Taylor County | 4,713 | 591 | 5,304 | 88.9% |
| Lewis County | 4,742 | 505 | 5,247 | 90.4% |
| Barbour County | 4,268 | 440 | 4,708 | 90.7% |
| Hardy County | 4,221 | 465 | 4,686 | 90.1% |
| Monroe County | 4,232 | 424 | 4,656 | 90.9% |
| Wetzel County | 4,092 | 468 | 4,560 | 89.7% |
| Roane County | 3,779 | 451 | 4,230 | 89.3% |
| McDowell County | 3,820 | 399 | 4,219 | 90.5% |
| Grant County | 3,780 | 230 | 4,010 | 94.3% |
| Braxton County | 3,565 | 443 | 4,008 | 88.9% |
| Summers County | 3,545 | 444 | 3,989 | 88.9% |
| Pocahontas County | 2,621 | 335 | 2,956 | 88.7% |
| Ritchie County | 2,720 | 203 | 2,923 | 93.1% |
| Tucker County | 2,426 | 318 | 2,744 | 88.4% |
| Tyler County | 2,517 | 219 | 2,736 | 92.0% |
| Pleasants County | 2,242 | 240 | 2,482 | 90.3% |
| Clay County | 2,202 | 218 | 2,420 | 91.0% |
| Pendleton County | 2,179 | 236 | 2,415 | 90.2% |
| Doddridge County | 2,210 | 164 | 2,374 | 93.1% |
| Webster County | 2,096 | 188 | 2,284 | 91.8% |
| Calhoun County | 1,999 | 186 | 2,185 | 91.5% |
| Gilmer County | 1,799 | 202 | 2,001 | 89.9% |
| Wirt County | 1,714 | 153 | 1,867 | 91.8% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 1 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with West Virginia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, news.ballotpedia.org, theballotbrief.com. All measures.