2026 forecast · Texas Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7
Kyle Hawkins is favored to win Texas's justice, supreme court, place 7 race.
Kristen Hawkins vs Kyle Hawkins, with Kyle Hawkins running again. The model has Hawkins ahead by 3.0 points, with a 72 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +3.0Polls R +7.6Updated October 22, 2026
Kristen Hawkins
Democrat
47.0%
4,700,723 projected votes
Kyle Hawkins
Republican
50.0%
5,000,790 projected votes
72%Hawkins
28%Hawkins
Hawkins favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Hawkins wins about 72 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hawkins +1,320,766 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide R +3.0, a 300,063 vote marginHawkins +1,620,829 net votes from 230 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hawkins R | 5,000,790 | 50.0% |
| Kristen Hawkins D | 4,700,723 | 47.0% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Hawkins | Hawkins | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,700,728 | 5,000,791 | 297,397 | 9,998,916 | R +3.0 |
| Harris County | 807,663 | 535,515 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +19.7 |
| Dallas County | 526,757 | 228,243 | 23,146 | 778,146 | D +38.4 |
| Tarrant County | 365,474 | 333,471 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +4.4 |
| Bexar County | 416,572 | 248,053 | 20,374 | 684,999 | D +24.6 |
| Travis County | 419,632 | 114,935 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +55.3 |
| Collin County | 210,159 | 215,005 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +1.1 |
| Denton County | 173,201 | 196,224 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +6.0 |
| Fort Bend County | 167,461 | 130,426 | 9,131 | 307,018 | D +12.1 |
| Williamson County | 139,570 | 118,790 | 7,921 | 266,281 | D +7.8 |
| Montgomery County | 68,108 | 177,308 | 7,522 | 252,938 | R +43.2 |
| El Paso County | 154,403 | 70,912 | 6,907 | 232,222 | D +36.0 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,929 | 73,975 | 5,822 | 195,726 | D +21.4 |
| Brazoria County | 53,805 | 77,874 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +17.7 |
| Galveston County | 50,838 | 80,039 | 4,013 | 134,890 | R +21.6 |
| Bell County | 50,362 | 60,916 | 3,412 | 114,690 | R +9.2 |
| Nueces County | 53,988 | 55,238 | 3,349 | 112,575 | R +1.1 |
| Hays County | 62,366 | 44,045 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +16.7 |
| Lubbock County | 34,313 | 71,153 | 3,232 | 108,698 | R +33.9 |
| Cameron County | 59,267 | 43,610 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +14.8 |
| Smith County | 24,154 | 63,224 | 2,679 | 90,057 | R +43.4 |
| McLennan County | 31,727 | 54,365 | 2,638 | 88,730 | R +25.5 |
| Comal County | 23,474 | 60,363 | 2,570 | 86,407 | R +42.7 |
| Ellis County | 25,566 | 53,155 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +34.0 |
| Brazos County | 33,414 | 44,985 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +14.3 |
| Jefferson County | 36,716 | 37,971 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +1.6 |
| Parker County | 11,797 | 59,892 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +65.1 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,157 | 43,014 | 2,089 | 70,260 | R +25.4 |
| Johnson County | 15,921 | 50,168 | 2,027 | 68,116 | R +50.3 |
| Webb County | 37,459 | 20,921 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +27.5 |
| Randall County | 11,208 | 44,442 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +57.9 |
| Kaufman County | 18,023 | 35,816 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +32.1 |
| Grayson County | 11,860 | 40,906 | 1,618 | 54,384 | R +53.4 |
| Rockwall County | 14,516 | 35,086 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +40.2 |
| Midland County | 9,901 | 39,469 | 1,513 | 50,883 | R +58.1 |
| Taylor County | 12,218 | 35,334 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +47.2 |
| Gregg County | 11,555 | 27,923 | 1,211 | 40,689 | R +40.2 |
| Wichita County | 12,092 | 26,956 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +36.9 |
| Tom Green County | 10,653 | 28,087 | 1,187 | 39,927 | R +43.7 |
| Hunt County | 7,835 | 29,453 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +56.3 |
| Ector County | 8,755 | 26,198 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +48.4 |
| Bastrop County | 15,153 | 19,028 | 1,047 | 35,228 | R +11.0 |
| Henderson County | 5,673 | 26,736 | 993 | 33,402 | R +63.1 |
| Bowie County | 8,616 | 22,713 | 961 | 32,290 | R +43.7 |
| Hood County | 5,363 | 24,819 | 925 | 31,107 | R +62.5 |
| Victoria County | 8,771 | 21,164 | 918 | 30,853 | R +40.2 |
| Orange County | 4,835 | 24,958 | 913 | 30,706 | R +65.5 |
| Wise County | 4,153 | 25,591 | 912 | 30,656 | R +69.9 |
| Angelina County | 7,205 | 21,676 | 885 | 29,766 | R +48.6 |
| Potter County | 8,702 | 19,948 | 878 | 29,528 | R +38.1 |
| Liberty County | 4,645 | 20,906 | 784 | 26,335 | R +61.8 |
| Harrison County | 6,118 | 18,755 | 763 | 25,636 | R +49.3 |
| Kerr County | 5,544 | 18,809 | 746 | 25,099 | R +52.9 |
| Kendall County | 5,084 | 18,989 | 738 | 24,811 | R +56.0 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,852 | 20,701 | 722 | 24,275 | R +73.5 |
| Walker County | 7,397 | 16,070 | 719 | 24,186 | R +35.9 |
| Burnet County | 5,228 | 17,972 | 710 | 23,910 | R +53.3 |
| Hardin County | 2,676 | 20,105 | 699 | 23,480 | R +74.2 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,010 | 15,068 | 677 | 22,755 | R +35.4 |
| Coryell County | 6,923 | 15,095 | 676 | 22,694 | R +36.0 |
| Wilson County | 5,238 | 16,649 | 671 | 22,558 | R +50.6 |
| San Patricio County | 7,564 | 14,081 | 664 | 22,309 | R +29.2 |
| Waller County | 7,605 | 13,330 | 641 | 21,576 | R +26.5 |
| Wood County | 2,872 | 17,584 | 627 | 21,083 | R +69.8 |
| Medina County | 5,790 | 14,406 | 619 | 20,815 | R +41.4 |
| Polk County | 4,120 | 15,665 | 607 | 20,392 | R +56.6 |
| Chambers County | 3,117 | 15,709 | 578 | 19,404 | R +64.9 |
| Rusk County | 3,633 | 14,669 | 561 | 18,863 | R +58.5 |
| Lamar County | 3,525 | 14,507 | 554 | 18,586 | R +59.1 |
| Anderson County | 3,420 | 14,247 | 541 | 18,208 | R +59.5 |
| Cherokee County | 3,108 | 14,049 | 527 | 17,684 | R +61.9 |
| Cooke County | 2,598 | 14,364 | 520 | 17,482 | R +67.3 |
| Navarro County | 4,040 | 12,664 | 512 | 17,216 | R +50.1 |
| Upshur County | 2,350 | 13,966 | 500 | 16,816 | R +69.1 |
| Erath County | 2,566 | 13,040 | 478 | 16,084 | R +65.1 |
| Washington County | 3,321 | 12,117 | 473 | 15,911 | R +55.3 |
| Atascosa County | 4,748 | 10,605 | 471 | 15,824 | R +37.0 |
| Brown County | 1,790 | 12,562 | 440 | 14,792 | R +72.8 |
| Caldwell County | 6,683 | 7,407 | 432 | 14,522 | R +5.0 |
| Gillespie County | 2,705 | 11,343 | 431 | 14,479 | R +59.7 |
| Wharton County | 3,503 | 10,508 | 429 | 14,440 | R +48.5 |
| Starr County | 8,414 | 5,513 | 427 | 14,354 | D +20.2 |
| Hopkins County | 2,649 | 11,204 | 425 | 14,278 | R +59.9 |
| Fannin County | 2,097 | 11,498 | 417 | 14,012 | R +67.1 |
| Hill County | 2,384 | 11,196 | 416 | 13,996 | R +63.0 |
| Jasper County | 2,071 | 10,867 | 396 | 13,334 | R +66.0 |
| Maverick County | 7,307 | 5,487 | 392 | 13,186 | D +13.8 |
| Austin County | 2,239 | 10,314 | 384 | 12,937 | R +62.4 |
| Val Verde County | 5,530 | 6,886 | 380 | 12,796 | R +10.6 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,677 | 6,043 | 360 | 12,080 | R +3.0 |
| Llano County | 2,276 | 9,426 | 358 | 12,060 | R +59.3 |
| Cass County | 1,947 | 9,598 | 355 | 11,900 | R +64.3 |
| Matagorda County | 2,925 | 8,503 | 350 | 11,778 | R +47.4 |
| Grimes County | 2,094 | 9,244 | 348 | 11,686 | R +61.2 |
| Fayette County | 2,095 | 9,212 | 347 | 11,654 | R +61.1 |
| Bandera County | 2,043 | 9,194 | 345 | 11,582 | R +61.8 |
| Aransas County | 2,358 | 8,666 | 337 | 11,361 | R +55.5 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,649 | 9,320 | 336 | 11,305 | R +67.8 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,948 | 8,831 | 331 | 11,110 | R +62.0 |
| Milam County | 2,120 | 7,333 | 289 | 9,742 | R +53.5 |
| Lampasas County | 1,835 | 7,495 | 286 | 9,616 | R +58.9 |
| Panola County | 1,518 | 7,810 | 285 | 9,613 | R +65.5 |
| Kleberg County | 4,557 | 4,719 | 284 | 9,560 | R +1.7 |
| Montague County | 910 | 8,025 | 274 | 9,209 | R +77.3 |
| Lavaca County | 1,023 | 7,826 | 271 | 9,120 | R +74.6 |
| Titus County | 1,933 | 6,747 | 266 | 8,946 | R +53.8 |
| Uvalde County | 3,335 | 5,247 | 262 | 8,844 | R +21.6 |
| Howard County | 1,726 | 6,709 | 259 | 8,694 | R +57.3 |
| Bee County | 2,815 | 5,561 | 257 | 8,633 | R +31.8 |
| Colorado County | 1,751 | 6,602 | 256 | 8,609 | R +56.4 |
| Hale County | 1,713 | 6,497 | 251 | 8,461 | R +56.5 |
| Shelby County | 1,432 | 6,767 | 251 | 8,450 | R +63.1 |
| Houston County | 1,763 | 6,369 | 250 | 8,382 | R +55.0 |
| Tyler County | 1,046 | 7,083 | 250 | 8,379 | R +72.0 |
| Bosque County | 1,346 | 6,723 | 247 | 8,316 | R +64.7 |
| Limestone County | 1,754 | 6,040 | 239 | 8,033 | R +53.4 |
| Burleson County | 1,291 | 6,314 | 233 | 7,838 | R +64.1 |
| Freestone County | 1,204 | 6,348 | 231 | 7,783 | R +66.1 |
| Leon County | 734 | 6,679 | 227 | 7,640 | R +77.8 |
| Lee County | 1,350 | 5,680 | 216 | 7,246 | R +59.8 |
| Eastland County | 792 | 6,215 | 215 | 7,222 | R +75.1 |
| Young County | 795 | 6,195 | 214 | 7,204 | R +75.0 |
| Hutchinson County | 710 | 6,274 | 214 | 7,198 | R +77.3 |
| Blanco County | 1,640 | 5,251 | 211 | 7,102 | R +50.9 |
| DeWitt County | 1,166 | 5,700 | 212 | 7,078 | R +64.1 |
| Robertson County | 1,697 | 5,022 | 206 | 6,925 | R +48.0 |
| Calhoun County | 1,695 | 4,965 | 204 | 6,864 | R +47.6 |
| Hockley County | 1,117 | 5,521 | 204 | 6,842 | R +64.4 |
| Gray County | 610 | 5,966 | 201 | 6,777 | R +79.0 |
| Gonzales County | 1,405 | 5,019 | 197 | 6,621 | R +54.6 |
| Jones County | 865 | 5,393 | 192 | 6,450 | R +70.2 |
| Trinity County | 1,020 | 5,061 | 187 | 6,268 | R +64.5 |
| Callahan County | 595 | 5,295 | 181 | 6,071 | R +77.4 |
| Falls County | 1,550 | 4,000 | 170 | 5,720 | R +42.8 |
| Rains County | 719 | 4,796 | 169 | 5,684 | R +71.7 |
| Comanche County | 697 | 4,720 | 166 | 5,583 | R +72.1 |
| Jackson County | 781 | 4,573 | 164 | 5,518 | R +68.7 |
| Willacy County | 3,051 | 2,135 | 159 | 5,345 | D +17.1 |
| Gaines County | 397 | 4,612 | 153 | 5,162 | R +81.6 |
| Scurry County | 625 | 4,320 | 152 | 5,097 | R +72.5 |
| Clay County | 504 | 4,396 | 151 | 5,051 | R +77.0 |
| Newton County | 861 | 4,019 | 150 | 5,030 | R +62.8 |
| Andrews County | 631 | 4,220 | 148 | 4,999 | R +71.8 |
| Red River County | 949 | 3,844 | 147 | 4,940 | R +58.6 |
| Sabine County | 491 | 4,198 | 145 | 4,834 | R +76.7 |
| Karnes County | 1,061 | 3,550 | 141 | 4,752 | R +52.4 |
| Frio County | 2,307 | 2,283 | 140 | 4,730 | D +0.5 |
| Madison County | 814 | 3,775 | 140 | 4,729 | R +62.6 |
| Morris County | 1,158 | 3,368 | 138 | 4,664 | R +47.4 |
| Nolan County | 893 | 3,610 | 138 | 4,641 | R +58.5 |
| Moore County | 734 | 3,738 | 137 | 4,609 | R +65.2 |
| Camp County | 1,023 | 3,409 | 136 | 4,568 | R +52.2 |
| Franklin County | 660 | 3,732 | 134 | 4,526 | R +67.9 |
| Live Oak County | 655 | 3,697 | 133 | 4,485 | R +67.8 |
| Somervell County | 695 | 3,649 | 132 | 4,476 | R +66.0 |
| Archer County | 397 | 3,781 | 128 | 4,306 | R +78.6 |
| Brewster County | 2,093 | 2,027 | 126 | 4,246 | D +1.6 |
| Pecos County | 1,268 | 2,773 | 123 | 4,164 | R +36.1 |
| Wilbarger County | 774 | 3,139 | 119 | 4,032 | R +58.6 |
| Zapata County | 2,139 | 1,764 | 119 | 4,022 | D +9.3 |
| Marion County | 960 | 2,938 | 119 | 4,017 | R +49.3 |
| Deaf Smith County | 928 | 2,909 | 117 | 3,954 | R +50.1 |
| Duval County | 2,269 | 1,552 | 117 | 3,938 | D +18.2 |
| Hamilton County | 539 | 3,190 | 115 | 3,844 | R +69.0 |
| Lamb County | 626 | 2,965 | 110 | 3,701 | R +63.2 |
| Runnels County | 381 | 3,170 | 109 | 3,660 | R +76.2 |
| Coleman County | 348 | 3,152 | 108 | 3,608 | R +77.7 |
| Goliad County | 716 | 2,706 | 104 | 3,526 | R +56.4 |
| Jack County | 275 | 3,138 | 105 | 3,518 | R +81.4 |
| Stephens County | 269 | 2,982 | 100 | 3,351 | R +81.0 |
| San Augustine County | 705 | 2,494 | 97 | 3,296 | R +54.3 |
| Dawson County | 620 | 2,505 | 95 | 3,220 | R +58.5 |
| Ward County | 574 | 2,495 | 93 | 3,162 | R +60.8 |
| Terry County | 535 | 2,513 | 94 | 3,142 | R +62.9 |
| Dimmit County | 1,973 | 1,058 | 93 | 3,124 | D +29.3 |
| Zavala County | 2,087 | 889 | 92 | 3,068 | D +39.1 |
| McCulloch County | 394 | 2,523 | 89 | 3,006 | R +70.8 |
| Reeves County | 1,259 | 1,656 | 90 | 3,005 | R +13.2 |
| Carson County | 240 | 2,366 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.1 |
| Refugio County | 796 | 1,789 | 80 | 2,665 | R +37.3 |
| Ochiltree County | 219 | 2,284 | 77 | 2,580 | R +80.0 |
| Mitchell County | 315 | 2,037 | 72 | 2,424 | R +71.0 |
| San Saba County | 229 | 2,106 | 72 | 2,407 | R +78.0 |
| Brooks County | 1,508 | 774 | 70 | 2,352 | D +31.2 |
| Mills County | 220 | 2,023 | 69 | 2,312 | R +78.0 |
| Parmer County | 310 | 1,901 | 68 | 2,279 | R +69.8 |
| Delta County | 346 | 1,841 | 67 | 2,254 | R +66.3 |
| Mason County | 387 | 1,742 | 65 | 2,194 | R +61.8 |
| Childress County | 230 | 1,806 | 62 | 2,098 | R +75.1 |
| Kimble County | 226 | 1,805 | 62 | 2,093 | R +75.5 |
| Lynn County | 300 | 1,726 | 62 | 2,088 | R +68.3 |
| Swisher County | 394 | 1,619 | 61 | 2,074 | R +59.1 |
| Haskell County | 287 | 1,677 | 60 | 2,024 | R +68.7 |
| Yoakum County | 268 | 1,693 | 60 | 2,021 | R +70.5 |
| La Salle County | 949 | 996 | 60 | 2,005 | R +2.3 |
| Wheeler County | 145 | 1,744 | 57 | 1,946 | R +82.2 |
| Presidio County | 1,393 | 446 | 57 | 1,896 | D +49.9 |
| Castro County | 361 | 1,435 | 55 | 1,851 | R +58.0 |
| Hartley County | 154 | 1,620 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.2 |
| Floyd County | 293 | 1,399 | 52 | 1,744 | R +63.4 |
| Hansford County | 124 | 1,569 | 51 | 1,744 | R +82.9 |
| Winkler County | 267 | 1,417 | 52 | 1,736 | R +66.2 |
| Martin County | 210 | 1,468 | 52 | 1,730 | R +72.8 |
| Bailey County | 311 | 1,314 | 49 | 1,674 | R +59.9 |
| Crosby County | 395 | 1,150 | 47 | 1,592 | R +47.4 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,010 | 514 | 46 | 1,570 | D +31.6 |
| Real County | 221 | 1,298 | 46 | 1,565 | R +68.8 |
| Fisher County | 274 | 1,236 | 46 | 1,556 | R +61.9 |
| Coke County | 148 | 1,360 | 46 | 1,554 | R +78.0 |
| Baylor County | 151 | 1,293 | 44 | 1,488 | R +76.8 |
| Garza County | 214 | 1,224 | 44 | 1,482 | R +68.1 |
| Shackelford County | 119 | 1,282 | 43 | 1,444 | R +80.6 |
| Hemphill County | 168 | 1,226 | 42 | 1,436 | R +73.6 |
| Donley County | 138 | 1,240 | 42 | 1,420 | R +77.6 |
| Dallam County | 145 | 1,193 | 41 | 1,379 | R +76.0 |
| Kinney County | 331 | 926 | 39 | 1,296 | R +46.0 |
| Crockett County | 302 | 910 | 38 | 1,250 | R +48.6 |
| Crane County | 174 | 1,026 | 37 | 1,237 | R +68.9 |
| Sutton County | 213 | 981 | 36 | 1,230 | R +62.5 |
| Hardeman County | 164 | 1,015 | 35 | 1,214 | R +70.0 |
| Knox County | 184 | 959 | 35 | 1,178 | R +65.8 |
| Upton County | 134 | 972 | 34 | 1,140 | R +73.5 |
| Concho County | 157 | 932 | 33 | 1,122 | R +69.0 |
| Lipscomb County | 96 | 952 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.3 |
| Jeff Davis County | 430 | 591 | 31 | 1,052 | R +15.3 |
| Collingsworth County | 114 | 884 | 30 | 1,028 | R +74.9 |
| Hall County | 128 | 866 | 31 | 1,025 | R +72.0 |
| Schleicher County | 183 | 797 | 30 | 1,010 | R +60.8 |
| Armstrong County | 69 | 863 | 28 | 960 | R +82.6 |
| Hudspeth County | 298 | 618 | 28 | 944 | R +33.9 |
| Menard County | 140 | 705 | 27 | 872 | R +64.9 |
| Dickens County | 114 | 700 | 25 | 839 | R +69.8 |
| Oldham County | 67 | 728 | 25 | 820 | R +80.7 |
| Reagan County | 123 | 672 | 25 | 820 | R +66.9 |
| Sherman County | 59 | 730 | 25 | 814 | R +82.4 |
| Throckmorton County | 63 | 671 | 22 | 756 | R +80.5 |
| Culberson County | 347 | 367 | 22 | 736 | R +2.8 |
| Cochran County | 121 | 593 | 21 | 735 | R +64.2 |
| Irion County | 83 | 602 | 21 | 706 | R +73.5 |
| Edwards County | 84 | 555 | 19 | 658 | R +71.6 |
| Briscoe County | 49 | 562 | 19 | 630 | R +81.4 |
| Stonewall County | 92 | 488 | 18 | 598 | R +66.4 |
| Motley County | 34 | 521 | 17 | 572 | R +85.2 |
| Cottle County | 78 | 470 | 18 | 566 | R +69.3 |
| Glasscock County | 31 | 502 | 16 | 549 | R +85.7 |
| Sterling County | 31 | 460 | 15 | 506 | R +84.7 |
| Foard County | 89 | 400 | 15 | 504 | R +61.6 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +91.8 |
| Terrell County | 95 | 279 | 12 | 386 | R +47.7 |
| Kent County | 40 | 324 | 12 | 376 | R +75.6 |
| Borden County | 17 | 295 | 10 | 322 | R +86.4 |
| McMullen County | 23 | 240 | 9 | 272 | R +79.7 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.0 |
| Kenedy County | 23 | 42 | 1 | 66 | R +29.0 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +74.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.8 and R +9.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.0 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +3.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.8 and R +9.8.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Hawkins | Hawkins | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 46.2 | 53.8 | R +7.6 |