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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 forecast · Maine Senate

Troy Jackson is slightly favored to win Maine's Senate seat.

Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins. The model has Jackson ahead by 2.1 points, winning 68 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +2.1Polls D +1.6Updated October 22, 2026
Troy Jackson
Democrat
50.1%
371,380 projected votes
Susan Collins
Republican
47.9%
355,641 projected votes
68%Jackson
32%Collins
Jackson favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Jackson wins about 68 of 100
RatingLean D68% chance for Jackson
Model marginD +2.1Polls D +1.6
80 percent rangeD +8.6 to R +4.82,000 simulations
Projected votes741,858Jackson 50.1%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Maine Senate by county

Androscoggin CountyAroostook CountyCumberland CountyFranklin CountyHancock CountyKennebec CountyKnox CountyLincoln CountyOxford CountyPenobscot CountyPiscataquis CountySagadahoc CountySomerset CountyWaldo CountyWashington CountyYork CountyCumberlandYorkPenobscotKennebecAndroscogginHancockAroostookOxfordSomersetKnoxWaldoSagadahoc
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Cumberland County: Jackson +52,880York County: Jackson +6,922Sagadahoc County: Jackson +2,889Hancock County: Jackson +2,601Knox County: Jackson +2,425Lincoln County: Jackson +384Penobscot County: Collins +12,998Aroostook County: Collins +11,165Somerset County: Collins +7,540Oxford County: Collins +4,628Kennebec County: Collins +4,602Washington County: Collins +4,172Androscoggin County: Collins +4,015Piscataquis County: Collins +3,032Franklin County: Collins +2,040Waldo County: Collins +758
Jackson +68,101 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide D +1.8, a 13,151 vote marginCollins +54,950 net votes from 10 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Troy JacksonDemocrat · 68% to win
50.1%
Susan CollinsRepublican · 32% to win
47.9%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

741,858 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Troy Jackson D371,38050.1%
Susan Collins R355,64147.9%
Phillip Rench I14,9112.0%
Total741,858100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +20.8: 1 simulationsD +19.8: 0 simulationsD +18.8: 4 simulationsD +17.8: 5 simulationsD +16.8: 5 simulationsD +15.8: 2 simulationsD +14.8: 12 simulationsD +13.8: 13 simulationsD +12.8: 7 simulationsD +11.8: 26 simulationsD +10.8: 32 simulationsD +9.8: 47 simulationsD +8.8: 66 simulationsD +7.8: 73 simulationsD +6.8: 111 simulationsD +5.8: 142 simulationsD +4.8: 139 simulationsD +3.8: 165 simulationsD +2.8: 151 simulationsD +1.8: 149 simulationsD +0.8: 156 simulationsR +0.2: 132 simulationsR +1.2: 96 simulationsR +2.2: 107 simulationsR +3.2: 90 simulationsR +4.2: 60 simulationsR +5.2: 49 simulationsR +6.2: 44 simulationsR +7.2: 34 simulationsR +8.2: 22 simulationsR +9.2: 16 simulationsR +10.2: 14 simulationsR +11.2: 13 simulationsR +12.2: 5 simulationsR +13.2: 7 simulationsR +14.2: 1 simulationsR +15.2: 3 simulationsR +16.2: 0 simulationsR +17.2: 0 simulationsR +18.2: 1 simulationsD +21.3R +18.7

80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.6 and R +4.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%68% Jackson32% Collins30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Maine Senate polling average
R+6R+4R+2EvenD+2D+4D+6D+8D+10D+12AugSepOctJackson +4.1
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
The Washington Post-Schar SchoolOct 5 · 800 LV · A+17%Jackson +4.0
InsiderAdvantageOct 14 · 800 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off16%Jackson +6.5
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22 · 619 LV · Gold13%Collins +3.0
Suffolk UniversityOct 11 · 500 LV · B+9.0%Jackson +2.0
Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 1 · 1,091 LV · A- · R lean, 3.8 off7.3%Jackson +4.1
Quantus InsightsSep 15 · 621 LV · Gold7.2%Collins +1.0
Every other poll together: 31%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +1.6
InsiderAdvantage800 LV1dD +2.1
Suffolk University500 LV4dD +0.2
Rasmussen Reports804 LV7dD +1.5
The Washington Post-Schar School800 LV10dD +2.8
Marist College1,505 RV11dD +1.5
CBS News/YouGov1,144 LV14dR +0.9
Trafalgar Group (R)1,091 LV14dD +1.5
co/efficient (R)1,240 LV15dD +2.0
Maine People's Resource Center (D)684 LV16dD +0.6
InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV22dD +0.9
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP982 LV23dD +2.4
New York Times/Siena University619 LV23dR +3.7
University of New Hampshire1,312 LV24dD +4.3
Quantus Insights621 LV30dD +0.8
UMass Lowell/YouGov650 LV31dD +4.2
Rasmussen Reports (R)1,033 LV35dD +2.4
YouGov1,335 LV37dD +3.2
SSRS880 LV39dD +1.9
Abacus Data327 LV48dD +7.5
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)1,000 RV66dR +0.0
Hart Research (D)802 LV75dD +3.0
University of New Hampshire1,178 LV87dD +3.3
Z to A Research (D)988 LV99dR +2.3
Public Policy Polling (D)785 LV100dD +4.0
Model margin
Jackson +2.1
Chance of winning
Troy Jackson68%
Susan Collins32%
Simulated vote
Troy Jackson50.1%
Susan Collins47.9%
Phillip Rench2.0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +7.1
FundamentalsD +2.5
With pollsD +1.3
Early vote turnoutD +0.8
With early voteD +2.1

Read from 136,065 ballots cast so far in Maine, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

47 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Troy Jackson36
  • Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
  • Barack Obamasource
  • Ro KhannaU.S. Representative, CA-17source
  • Ryan FecteauSpeaker of the Maine Housesource
  • Nirav ShahFormer principal deputy director of the CDC, former convention candidatesource
  • David Costello2024 Senate nominee, former primary candidatesource
  • Dan KlebanBrewery owner, former Senate candidatesource
  • Jordan WoodFormer chief of staff to Katie Porter, former Senate candidatesource
Susan Collins11
  • Donald Trumpsource
  • JD VanceVice Presidentsource
  • John ThuneSenate Majority Leadersource
  • Tim ScottU.S. Senator, NRSC chairsource
  • Steve DainesU.S. Senator from Montanasource
  • Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassadorsource
  • Mitt RomneyFormer U.S. Senator from Utahsource
  • Joe ManchinFormer U.S. Senator from West Virginiasource
On the air

Harry Enten: In a YouTube forecast video listed Maine as a Democratic lead of 3 points on the path to a Democratic sweep. source

Harry Enten: Called the Collins vs Platner race a contest with no clear leader in his Senate math segment. source

Karl Rove: Predicted Susan Collins will win. source

Nate Silver: Called Maine the Senate tipping point state, with Troy Jackson narrowly ahead of Susan Collins in his polling error test. source

Nate Silver: His forecast gave Troy Jackson a 69% chance of defeating Susan Collins. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +10R +10Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +7.1Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +2.5With pollsaverage D +1.6D +1.3With early voteturnout so farD +2.1

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareJacksonCollins
GenderMen45%43.454.6
Women55%54.343.7
Age18 to 2911%50.247.7
30 to 4420%47.550.5
45 to 6432%46.851.2
65+37%52.445.6
RaceWhite94%47.850.3
Latino2%67.130.9
Asian and other4%73.424.2
Race and genderWhite men42%41.156.9
White women52%53.144.9
All other races4%73.424.2

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

16 counties
CountyJacksonCollinsOtherTotalMargin
Statewide370,098356,94714,813741,858D +1.8
Cumberland County113,27560,3953,907177,577D +30.2
York County60,62053,6982,095116,413D +6.5
Penobscot County31,46244,4601,39277,314R +16.4
Kennebec County29,91334,5151,31565,743R +6.7
Androscoggin County23,80827,82394652,577R +7.2
Hancock County17,31014,70972032,739D +8.3
Aroostook County10,23221,39748132,110R +34.6
Oxford County12,70017,32858130,609R +14.8
Somerset County8,57416,11463325,321R +29.6
Knox County12,74810,32351923,590D +10.7
Waldo County10,59611,35456222,512R +3.1
Sagadahoc County12,2579,36846422,089D +13.6
Lincoln County10,93710,55339421,884D +2.1
Washington County5,86010,03225916,151R +25.7
Franklin County6,8698,90937216,150R +12.3
Piscataquis County2,9375,9691739,079R +33.1

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.