2026 forecast · Nebraska Governor
Jim Pillen is slightly favored to win Nebraska's governorship.
Lynne Walz vs Jim Pillen. The model has Pillen ahead by 1.3 points, winning 59 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Toss upModel R +1.3Polls R +2.6Updated October 22, 2026
Lynne Walz
Democrat
46.3%
358,818 projected votes
Jim Pillen
Republican
47.5%
368,419 projected votes
59%Pillen
41%Walz
Pillen slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Pillen wins about 59 of 100
RatingToss up59% chance for Pillen
Model marginR +1.3Polls R +2.6
80 percent rangeD +5.4 to R +7.82,000 simulations
Projected votes775,141Pillen 47.5%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Walz +118,390 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide R +1.3, a 10,203 vote marginPillen +128,593 net votes from 90 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Lynne WalzDemocrat · 41% to win
3040506070
46.3%
Jim PillenRepublican · 59% to win
3040506070
47.5%
Brett LindstromAF
3040506070
3.1%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
775,141 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Pillen R | 368,419 | 47.5% |
| Lynne Walz D | 358,818 | 46.3% |
| Brett Lindstrom AF | 24,339 | 3.1% |
| Rick Beard LMN | 23,642 | 3.1% |
| Total | 775,141 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.4 and R +7.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
National Public AffairsOct 5 · 800 LV · NR18%Pillen +4.0
Public Policy Polling (D)Oct 14 · 571 RV · D-17%Pillen +1.0
co/efficient (R)Sep 30 · 1,113 LV · C+17%Pillen +5.0
YouGovOct 3 · 1,809 LV · C16%Pillen +1.0
SurveyUSASep 13 · 503 LV · C+16%Pillen +8.0
Lake Research Partners (D)Sep 14 · 600 RV · NR15%Even
Every other poll together: 0.7%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +2.6 | |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 571 RV | 1d | R +2.2 |
| National Public Affairs | 800 LV | 10d | R +3.1 |
| YouGov | 1,809 LV | 12d | R +1.8 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,113 LV | 15d | R +1.5 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 600 RV | 31d | R +2.8 |
| SurveyUSA | 503 LV | 32d | R +8.5 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 559 RV | 43d | R +1.9 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 900 LV | 169d | R +5.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 670 RV | 191d | R +6.0 |
Model margin
Pillen +1.3
Chance of winning
Lynne Walz41%
Jim Pillen59%
Simulated vote
Lynne Walz46.3%
Jim Pillen47.5%
Brett Lindstrom3.1%
Rick Beard3.0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +20.8
FundamentalsR +8.7
With pollsR +3.3
Early vote turnoutD +2.1
With early voteR +1.3
Read from 107,222 ballots cast so far in Nebraska, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
15 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Lynne Walz11
- Tim GragertFormer state senator, conservative districtsource
- Ben NelsonFormer U.S. Senator and Governorsource
- Mark KoltermanFormer state senator, conservative districtsource
- John StinnerFormer state senator, conservative districtsource
- IBEW Local 22Electrical workers union localsource
- Nebraska and Southwest Iowa Building and Construction Trades CouncilBuilding trades councilsource
- Nebraska State AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Nebraska Young DemocratsParty youth organizationsource
Brett Lindstrom1
- Nebraskans Against Government OverreachConservative groupsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Walz | Pillen |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 40.9 | 52.9 |
| Women | 53% | 49.2 | 44.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 51.3 | 42.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 46.0 | 47.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 43.3 | 50.5 |
| 65+ | 32% | 44.1 | 49.6 |
| RaceWhite | 86% | 41.2 | 52.6 |
| Black | 4% | 86.5 | 7.9 |
| Latino | 6% | 58.6 | 35.1 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 70.7 | 22.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 35.9 | 58.0 |
| White women | 46% | 45.8 | 47.9 |
| Black men | 2% | 84.8 | 9.5 |
| Black women | 2% | 88.0 | 6.4 |
| Latino men | 3% | 56.9 | 36.6 |
| Latino women | 3% | 60.4 | 33.6 |
| All other races | 4% | 70.7 | 22.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
93 counties| County | Walz | Pillen | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 358,450 | 368,653 | 48,038 | 775,141 | R +1.3 |
| Douglas County | 142,133 | 69,416 | 12,787 | 224,336 | D +32.5 |
| Lancaster County | 80,351 | 44,791 | 6,864 | 132,006 | D +26.9 |
| Sarpy County | 41,391 | 31,278 | 4,886 | 77,555 | D +13.2 |
| Buffalo County | 6,543 | 11,100 | 1,348 | 18,991 | R +23.8 |
| Hall County | 6,427 | 10,531 | 1,494 | 18,452 | R +22.2 |
| Lincoln County | 3,645 | 9,099 | 944 | 13,688 | R +39.8 |
| Dodge County | 5,214 | 7,182 | 1,005 | 13,401 | R +14.6 |
| Madison County | 3,290 | 9,038 | 856 | 13,184 | R +43.5 |
| Platte County | 2,852 | 9,412 | 591 | 12,855 | R +51.0 |
| Cass County | 4,665 | 7,005 | 1,000 | 12,670 | R +18.4 |
| Scotts Bluff County | 3,814 | 7,524 | 814 | 12,152 | R +30.4 |
| Adams County | 4,067 | 7,017 | 821 | 11,905 | R +24.8 |
| Saunders County | 3,423 | 6,536 | 773 | 10,732 | R +28.9 |
| Washington County | 3,424 | 5,943 | 598 | 9,965 | R +25.1 |
| Gage County | 3,152 | 5,316 | 589 | 9,057 | R +23.7 |
| Seward County | 2,169 | 5,003 | 425 | 7,597 | R +37.3 |
| Dawson County | 1,807 | 4,543 | 522 | 6,872 | R +39.7 |
| Otoe County | 2,284 | 3,863 | 441 | 6,588 | R +23.9 |
| York County | 1,269 | 4,072 | 396 | 5,737 | R +48.6 |
| Dakota County | 1,698 | 2,849 | 301 | 4,848 | R +23.5 |
| Custer County | 918 | 3,540 | 367 | 4,825 | R +54.0 |
| Hamilton County | 917 | 3,286 | 327 | 4,530 | R +51.9 |
| Saline County | 1,757 | 2,438 | 325 | 4,520 | R +15.0 |
| Red Willow County | 937 | 3,224 | 352 | 4,513 | R +50.5 |
| Holt County | 715 | 3,348 | 343 | 4,406 | R +59.4 |
| Phelps County | 812 | 3,045 | 269 | 4,126 | R +53.8 |
| Cedar County | 748 | 3,058 | 274 | 4,080 | R +56.2 |
| Box Butte County | 1,097 | 2,585 | 243 | 3,925 | R +37.6 |
| Knox County | 827 | 2,826 | 233 | 3,886 | R +50.9 |
| Butler County | 915 | 2,690 | 238 | 3,843 | R +45.9 |
| Cheyenne County | 741 | 2,771 | 288 | 3,800 | R +53.0 |
| Cuming County | 705 | 2,770 | 175 | 3,650 | R +56.1 |
| Merrick County | 799 | 2,569 | 277 | 3,645 | R +48.3 |
| Wayne County | 1,033 | 2,293 | 216 | 3,542 | R +35.4 |
| Dawes County | 1,250 | 1,960 | 226 | 3,436 | R +20.5 |
| Keith County | 753 | 2,493 | 189 | 3,435 | R +50.3 |
| Richardson County | 1,012 | 1,994 | 283 | 3,289 | R +29.6 |
| Pierce County | 471 | 2,614 | 183 | 3,268 | R +65.1 |
| Burt County | 963 | 1,878 | 204 | 3,045 | R +29.7 |
| Jefferson County | 883 | 1,901 | 207 | 2,991 | R +33.7 |
| Kearney County | 658 | 2,058 | 189 | 2,905 | R +47.8 |
| Clay County | 613 | 2,032 | 224 | 2,869 | R +48.8 |
| Howard County | 709 | 1,897 | 239 | 2,845 | R +41.4 |
| Colfax County | 806 | 1,870 | 153 | 2,829 | R +37.1 |
| Antelope County | 382 | 2,254 | 153 | 2,789 | R +66.9 |
| Nemaha County | 876 | 1,682 | 207 | 2,765 | R +28.8 |
| Boone County | 534 | 1,905 | 233 | 2,672 | R +50.8 |
| Stanton County | 559 | 1,878 | 209 | 2,646 | R +49.5 |
| Cherry County | 359 | 2,010 | 232 | 2,601 | R +62.9 |
| Fillmore County | 714 | 1,716 | 141 | 2,571 | R +38.5 |
| Dixon County | 617 | 1,647 | 150 | 2,414 | R +42.2 |
| Thayer County | 517 | 1,704 | 150 | 2,371 | R +49.7 |
| Polk County | 511 | 1,689 | 130 | 2,330 | R +49.9 |
| Morrill County | 396 | 1,490 | 196 | 2,082 | R +52.3 |
| Furnas County | 371 | 1,512 | 168 | 2,051 | R +55.0 |
| Sheridan County | 403 | 1,416 | 183 | 2,002 | R +49.9 |
| Valley County | 455 | 1,347 | 131 | 1,933 | R +45.9 |
| Johnson County | 644 | 1,044 | 149 | 1,837 | R +21.4 |
| Nuckolls County | 357 | 1,362 | 97 | 1,816 | R +54.8 |
| Thurston County | 736 | 878 | 80 | 1,694 | R +7.9 |
| Chase County | 283 | 1,265 | 89 | 1,637 | R +59.4 |
| Harlan County | 332 | 1,062 | 121 | 1,515 | R +47.7 |
| Kimball County | 252 | 1,104 | 110 | 1,466 | R +57.1 |
| Webster County | 309 | 1,048 | 94 | 1,451 | R +50.3 |
| Nance County | 405 | 912 | 121 | 1,438 | R +34.2 |
| Sherman County | 377 | 863 | 131 | 1,371 | R +34.8 |
| Brown County | 234 | 1,004 | 105 | 1,343 | R +56.7 |
| Franklin County | 268 | 957 | 93 | 1,318 | R +51.5 |
| Perkins County | 229 | 913 | 73 | 1,215 | R +55.5 |
| Frontier County | 223 | 899 | 73 | 1,195 | R +55.8 |
| Hitchcock County | 203 | 879 | 89 | 1,171 | R +56.7 |
| Pawnee County | 297 | 798 | 66 | 1,161 | R +42.1 |
| Greeley County | 262 | 717 | 86 | 1,065 | R +42.2 |
| Garden County | 158 | 717 | 61 | 936 | R +58.7 |
| Gosper County | 211 | 664 | 54 | 929 | R +47.9 |
| Boyd County | 157 | 698 | 65 | 920 | R +57.4 |
| Garfield County | 143 | 663 | 34 | 840 | R +61.3 |
| Deuel County | 131 | 620 | 77 | 828 | R +57.8 |
| Dundy County | 120 | 631 | 48 | 799 | R +61.8 |
| Rock County | 110 | 528 | 37 | 675 | R +61.5 |
| Sioux County | 88 | 436 | 31 | 555 | R +61.9 |
| Hayes County | 42 | 344 | 38 | 424 | R +71.5 |
| Keya Paha County | 54 | 321 | 36 | 411 | R +62.4 |
| Wheeler County | 75 | 263 | 28 | 366 | R +49.3 |
| Logan County | 39 | 300 | 21 | 360 | R +71.0 |
| Hooker County | 73 | 268 | 17 | 358 | R +52.1 |
| Banner County | 45 | 281 | 30 | 356 | R +64.5 |
| Thomas County | 47 | 258 | 19 | 324 | R +62.1 |
| Loup County | 73 | 213 | 31 | 317 | R +43.4 |
| Grant County | 29 | 263 | 17 | 309 | R +74.7 |
| Arthur County | 25 | 210 | 18 | 253 | R +72.7 |
| McPherson County | 34 | 189 | 18 | 241 | R +63.3 |
| Blaine County | 34 | 173 | 19 | 226 | R +59.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.