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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Amendment 86

Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting

Requires both the independent commission and state Supreme Court to approve any mid decade congressional map and bars partisan maps. The forecast has Yes at 38.8 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 6% chance to pass.

Likely to failCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentRedistrictingUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
6%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
38.8%
80% range 27 to 52
Needs
55%
55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580
History and structure
38.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
38.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.

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Amendment 86 by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Weld County: Yes +5,140Mesa County: Yes +4,934Elbert County: Yes +4,839Fremont County: Yes +4,221Logan County: Yes +3,319Morgan County: Yes +3,265Montrose County: Yes +2,951Delta County: Yes +2,700Moffat County: Yes +2,498Teller County: Yes +2,265Yuma County: Yes +1,879Kit Carson County: Yes +1,560Washington County: Yes +1,404Prowers County: Yes +1,386Rio Blanco County: Yes +1,380Lincoln County: Yes +1,048Baca County: Yes +909Phillips County: Yes +881Otero County: Yes +638Cheyenne County: Yes +555Custer County: Yes +540Crowley County: Yes +478Montezuma County: Yes +461Sedgwick County: Yes +422Kiowa County: Yes +417Dolores County: Yes +412Bent County: Yes +394Rio Grande County: Yes +284Jackson County: Yes +252Conejos County: Yes +32Denver County: No +182,123Boulder County: No +97,610Jefferson County: No +89,419Arapahoe County: No +82,311Larimer County: No +51,689Adams County: No +39,526El Paso County: No +18,424Douglas County: No +15,512Broomfield County: No +14,009La Plata County: No +8,658Eagle County: No +7,831Pueblo County: No +7,039Summit County: No +6,471Routt County: No +4,930Pitkin County: No +4,653Garfield County: No +3,985Gunnison County: No +3,452Chaffee County: No +2,907San Miguel County: No +2,176Clear Creek County: No +1,413Grand County: No +1,089Ouray County: No +991Lake County: No +877Gilpin County: No +805Saguache County: No +495Costilla County: No +443Alamosa County: No +324Huerfano County: No +261Las Animas County: No +189Archuleta County: No +180San Juan County: No +165Hinsdale County: No +18Park County: No +16Mineral County: No +14
Yes +51,464 net votes from 30 countiesStatewide No +22.5, a 598,541 vote marginNo +650,005 net votes from 34 counties

Projected vote

2,661,959 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,031,70938.8%
No1,630,25061.2%
Total2,661,959100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County148,888167,312316,20047.1%
Denver County65,409247,532312,94120.9%
Jefferson County107,986197,405305,39135.4%
Arapahoe County96,989179,300276,28935.1%
Douglas County87,276102,788190,06445.9%
Adams County74,193113,719187,91239.5%
Larimer County67,030118,719185,74936.1%
Boulder County35,501133,111168,61221.1%
Weld County74,54769,407143,95451.8%
Mesa County40,89435,96076,85453.2%
Pueblo County32,81739,85672,67345.2%
Broomfield County12,25426,26338,51731.8%
La Plata County10,79319,45130,24435.7%
Garfield County10,85414,83925,69342.2%
Eagle County7,90515,73623,64133.4%
Fremont County13,1248,90322,02759.6%
Montrose County12,2419,29021,53156.9%
Delta County9,5376,83716,37458.2%
Elbert County10,1295,29015,41965.7%
Summit County4,25410,72514,97928.4%
Teller County8,0305,76513,79558.2%
Routt County4,4309,36013,79032.1%
Montezuma County6,6776,21612,89351.8%
Chaffee County4,4457,35211,79737.7%
Morgan County7,2633,99811,26164.5%
Park County5,0675,08310,15049.9%
Pitkin County2,4727,1259,59725.8%
Gunnison County2,9346,3869,32031.5%
Logan County6,1392,8208,95968.5%
Grand County3,5864,6758,26143.4%
Archuleta County3,7983,9787,77648.8%
Otero County4,1543,5167,67054.2%
Las Animas County3,3083,4976,80548.6%
Alamosa County3,0903,4146,50447.5%
Moffat County4,0971,5995,69671.9%
Clear Creek County1,9043,3175,22136.5%
Rio Grande County2,7512,4675,21852.7%
Prowers County2,9571,5714,52865.3%
San Miguel County9763,1524,12823.6%
Yuma County2,9511,0724,02373.4%
Huerfano County1,7832,0443,82746.6%
Conejos County1,7501,7183,46850.5%
Gilpin County1,2732,0783,35138.0%
Ouray County1,1282,1193,24734.7%
Lake County1,1822,0593,24136.5%
Custer County1,8621,3223,18458.5%
Kit Carson County2,3487883,13674.9%
Rio Blanco County2,2398593,09872.3%
Saguache County1,2211,7162,93741.6%
Washington County1,9135092,42279.0%
Lincoln County1,6756272,30272.8%
Bent County1,2088142,02259.7%
Phillips County1,4465652,01171.9%
Costilla County6431,0861,72937.2%
Baca County1,3174081,72576.3%
Crowley County1,0886101,69864.1%
Dolores County8354231,25866.4%
Sedgwick County7863641,15068.3%
Cheyenne County72617189780.9%
Kiowa County57115472578.8%
Jackson County47322169468.2%
Hinsdale County24326150448.2%
Mineral County22223645848.5%
San Juan County12729241930.3%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 55.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 86 is forecast as a redistricting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.