2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 4

Election Day voter registration

Lets eligible residents register to vote or update their registration at the polls on Election Day and during early voting. The forecast has Yes at 63.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteElectionsUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

63.9%

80% range 59 to 69

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

63.8%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 64.6% Yes
Polls: 63.8% Yes
Forecast: 63.9% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

YES on Election Day Registration, a push led by Secretary of State Bill Galvin, about $156K total activity; Massachusetts Republican Party opposes.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

92%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Question 4 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +749,052 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +27.9, a 749,052 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

2,687,748 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	1,718,400	63.9%
No	969,348	36.1%
Total	2,687,748	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Middlesex County	434,038	206,489	640,527	67.8%
Worcester County	189,621	129,168	318,789	59.5%
Essex County	190,446	115,222	305,668	62.3%
Norfolk County	193,651	105,859	299,510	64.7%
Suffolk County	177,021	69,503	246,524	71.8%
Plymouth County	133,759	92,364	226,123	59.2%
Bristol County	117,479	88,298	205,777	57.1%
Hampden County	93,455	64,479	157,934	59.2%
Barnstable County	73,006	44,000	117,006	62.4%
Hampshire County	47,423	21,750	69,173	68.6%
Berkshire County	36,043	17,069	53,112	67.9%
Franklin County	21,996	10,667	32,663	67.3%
Dukes County	6,852	2,697	9,549	71.8%
Nantucket County	3,610	1,783	5,393	66.9%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

6 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe	500 LV	2026-10-18	59.2	32.8	6.4	62.3%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	67	26	6	69.7%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	53	33	14	57.7%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	564 LV	2026-09-21	59	38	4	59.7%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	69	22	5	73.6%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	620 LV	2026-02-16	61	21	17	67.3%

How this is built

Question 4 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.