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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 forecast ยท Pennsylvania 3rd

Chris Rabb is unopposed for Pennsylvania's 3rd District.

Chris Rabb vs No Republican on the ballot, an open seat. The seat is uncontested.

Safe DModel D +100.0Updated October 22, 2026
RatingSafe D100% chance for Rabb
Model marginUncontestedNo polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +100.0 to D +100.02,000 simulations
Projected votes349,686Rabb 0.0%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Pennsylvania districts

17 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected district vote

349,686 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Chris Rabb D00.0%
No Republican on the ballot R00.0%
Total349,686100%

Uncontested by one of the major parties.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Rabb0% ballot11 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Pennsylvania governor polling average
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%MayJunJulAugSepOct55.7Shapiro32.0Garrity
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/SienaAug 21 ยท 760 LV ยท Gold16%Shapiro +16.0
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 5 ยท 1,159 LV ยท C15%Shapiro +25.0
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchSep 30 ยท 700 LV ยท A-15%Shapiro +21.0
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/SienaSep 21 ยท 615 LV ยท Gold14%Shapiro +20.0
Bravo Group/PennLiveOct 11 ยท 628 RV ยท NR14%Shapiro +30.1
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D)Oct 1 ยท 630 RV ยท NR12%Shapiro +19.0
Every other poll together: 13%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Uncontested
Chance of winning
Chris Rabb100%
No Republican on the ballot0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +77.0
FundamentalsD +100.0
With pollsD +100.0

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +92R +92Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +77.0
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.