2026 ballot measure forecast
Hawaii Question 2
County tax increment bonds for infrastructure
Lets counties issue bonds for sewer, water and drainage in designated districts repaid from property tax revenue growth, outside debt limits. The forecast has Yes at 68.4 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 93% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
93%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
68.4%80% range 55 to 79
Needs
53.2%a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580- History and structure
- 68.4% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 68.4% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Must win a majority of all ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as no.
The campaign
Referred by Legislature; supporters say it aids housing; no organized campaigns reported.
Also on the Hawaii ballot
Question 1
More Senate time on judicial appointments
84%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +158,511 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide Yes +36.8, a 158,511 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
430,339 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 294,425 | 68.4% |
| No | 135,914 | 31.6% |
| Total | 430,339 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | 196,367 | 91,292 | 287,659 | 68.3% |
| Hawaii County | 45,947 | 20,664 | 66,611 | 69.0% |
| Maui County | 35,596 | 16,203 | 51,799 | 68.7% |
| Kauai County | 16,515 | 7,755 | 24,270 | 68.0% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 53.2 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Question 2 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Hawaii's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: hawaiipublicradio.org. All measures.