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2026 forecast · Arizona Governor

Katie Hobbs is all but certain to win Arizona's governorship.

Katie Hobbs vs Andy Biggs. The model has Hobbs ahead by 12.3 points, winning 98 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +12.3Polls D +10.5Updated October 22, 2026
Katie Hobbs
Democrat
54.9%
1,749,792 projected votes
Andy Biggs
Republican
42.7%
1,359,285 projected votes
98%Hobbs
2%Biggs
Hobbs all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Hobbs wins about 98 of 100
RatingSafe D98% chance for Hobbs
Model marginD +12.3Polls D +10.5
80 percent rangeD +19.7 to D +5.12,000 simulations
Projected votes3,185,856Hobbs 54.9%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Arizona Governor by county

Mohave CountySanta Cruz CountyCoconino CountyLa Paz CountyGila CountyPima CountyGreenlee CountyPinal CountyNavajo CountyYuma CountyMaricopa CountyGraham CountyCochise CountyApache CountyYavapai CountyMaricopaPimaPinalYavapaiMohaveCoconinoYumaCochiseNavajoApacheGilaSanta Cruz
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Maricopa County: Hobbs +322,758Pima County: Hobbs +152,391Coconino County: Hobbs +25,216Apache County: Hobbs +12,704Santa Cruz County: Hobbs +6,535Yuma County: Hobbs +533Mohave County: Biggs +42,973Pinal County: Biggs +30,504Yavapai County: Biggs +30,261Gila County: Biggs +6,542Graham County: Biggs +5,488Cochise County: Biggs +4,424La Paz County: Biggs +2,264Navajo County: Biggs +1,275Greenlee County: Biggs +387
Hobbs +520,137 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide D +12.4, a 396,019 vote marginBiggs +124,118 net votes from 9 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Katie HobbsDemocrat · 98% to win
54.9%
Andy BiggsRepublican · 2% to win
42.7%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

3,185,856 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Katie Hobbs D1,749,79254.9%
Andy Biggs R1,359,28542.7%
Teri Hourihan NL48,1061.5%
Risa Lombardo G28,6730.9%
Total3,185,856100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +39.1: 1 simulationsD +37.6: 1 simulationsD +36.1: 0 simulationsD +34.6: 0 simulationsD +33.0: 2 simulationsD +31.5: 3 simulationsD +30.0: 1 simulationsD +28.5: 4 simulationsD +26.9: 14 simulationsD +25.4: 18 simulationsD +23.9: 25 simulationsD +22.4: 45 simulationsD +20.8: 62 simulationsD +19.3: 94 simulationsD +17.8: 126 simulationsD +16.3: 151 simulationsD +14.7: 191 simulationsD +13.2: 215 simulationsD +11.7: 229 simulationsD +10.2: 179 simulationsD +8.6: 211 simulationsD +7.1: 143 simulationsD +5.6: 98 simulationsD +4.1: 79 simulationsD +2.5: 51 simulationsD +1.0: 22 simulationsR +0.5: 16 simulationsR +2.0: 8 simulationsR +3.6: 4 simulationsR +5.1: 3 simulationsR +6.6: 2 simulationsR +8.1: 1 simulationsR +9.7: 0 simulationsR +11.2: 0 simulationsR +12.7: 0 simulationsR +14.2: 0 simulationsR +15.8: 0 simulationsR +17.3: 0 simulationsR +18.8: 0 simulationsR +20.3: 1 simulationsD +39.9R +21.1

80 percent of simulations fall between D +19.7 and D +5.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%98% Hobbs2% Biggs30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Arizona governor polling average
30%35%40%45%50%55%MayJunJulAugSepOct49.3Hobbs43.8Biggs
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
GrayHouse for Norton (R)Oct 8 · 550 LV · NR19%Hobbs +6.0
Steve Cortes for League of American Workers (R)Oct 6 · 1,513 LV · NR19%Hobbs +5.7
Quantus InsightsAug 17 · 780 LV · Gold19%Hobbs +6.0
GQR for Hobbs (D)Oct 4 · 600 LV · NR18%Hobbs +4.0
Equis ResearchSep 9 · 1,214 RV · NR9.8%Hobbs +6.0
The Tarrance Group (R)Jul 30 · 600 LV · A4.5%Hobbs +4.0
Every other poll together: 11%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +10.5
HighGround Public Affairs400 LV7dD +16.850.5 to 33.7
GrayHouse for Norton (R)550 LV7dD +6.050 to 44
HighGround Inc.400 LV7dD +15.049 to 34
Steve Cortes for League of American Workers (R)1,513 LV9dD +5.748.9 to 43.2
Wick Research1,513 LV9dD +6.8
GQR for Hobbs (D)600 LV11dD +4.049 to 45
Equis Research1,214 RV36dD +6.049 to 43
Arizona State University1,300 RV41dD +13.047 to 34
NextGen Polling (R)1,627 LV57dD +1.039 to 38
HighGround, Inc.400 LV58dD +13.1
Quantus Insights780 LV59dD +6.049 to 43
Kreate Strategies (R)900 LV60dD +5.045 to 40
Noble Predictive Insights923 LV63dD +13.048 to 35
Stealth Analytics530 LV63dD +5.043 to 38
Grayhouse (R)600 LV65dD +4.049 to 45
The Tarrance Group (R)600 LV77dD +4.052 to 48
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan913 LV79dD +8.052 to 44
Noble Predictive Insights996 RV161dD +4.041 to 37
TIPP Insights (R)1,159 LV174dD +10.048 to 38
Noble Predictive Insights1,023 RV231dD +7.042 to 35
Center for Excellence in Polling519 LV264dD +9.050 to 41
NXTGenP (R)2,725 LV302dD +20.1
Emerson College850 RV339dD +1.5
Noble Predictive Insights948 RV423dD +1.3
Noble Predictive Insights1,026 RV517dD +1.3

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Hobbs +12.3
Chance of winning
Katie Hobbs98%
Andy Biggs2%
Simulated vote
Katie Hobbs54.9%
Andy Biggs42.7%
Teri Hourihan1.5%
Risa Lombardo0.9%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +5.6
FundamentalsD +11.9
With pollsD +11.8
Early vote turnoutD +0.4
With early voteD +12.3

Read from 656,180 ballots cast so far in Arizona, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

32 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Katie Hobbs18
  • Mark KellyU.S. Senator, Arizonasource
  • Gabby GiffordsFormer U.S. Rep., founder of Giffordssource
  • Ruben GallegoU.S. Senator, Arizonasource
  • Greg StantonU.S. Rep., AZ-04source
  • Yassamin AnsariU.S. Rep., AZ-03source
  • Cindy McCainFormer WFP Executive Director, widow of John McCain (Republican)source
  • Arizona AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
  • EMILYs ListPro choice women's PACsource
Andy Biggs14
  • Matt GaetzFormer U.S. Rep., FL-01source
  • Debbie LeskoFormer U.S. Rep., AZ-08, Maricopa County Supervisorsource
  • Paul GosarU.S. Rep., AZ-09source
  • Eli CraneU.S. Rep., AZ-02source
  • Lauren BoebertU.S. Rep., CO-04source
  • Donald Trumpsource
  • Doug DuceyFormer Governor of Arizonasource
  • Tom EmmerHouse Majority Whipsource
Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +15R +15Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +5.6Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +11.9With pollsaverage D +10.5D +11.8With early voteturnout so farD +12.3

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareHobbsBiggs
GenderMen48%49.947.7
Women53%57.739.9
Age18 to 2913%57.140.4
30 to 4422%51.745.8
45 to 6430%52.944.6
65+35%55.042.6
RaceWhite66%45.552.1
Black5%84.213.4
Latino21%66.131.6
Asian and other9%72.524.6
Race and genderWhite men31%39.358.3
White women35%50.946.7
Black men2%82.315.3
Black women2%85.911.8
Latino men10%63.734.0
Latino women11%68.329.4
All other races9%72.524.6

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

15 counties
CountyHobbsBiggsOtherTotalMargin
Statewide1,752,5221,356,50376,8313,185,856D +12.4
Maricopa County1,101,582778,82446,2391,926,645D +16.8
Pima County316,282163,89110,802490,975D +31.1
Pinal County77,884108,3885,169191,441R +15.9
Yavapai County52,72882,9893,053138,770R +21.8
Mohave County28,33971,3122,555102,206R +42.0
Coconino County45,82520,6091,91368,347D +36.9
Yuma County31,82631,2931,28864,407D +0.8
Cochise County25,02429,4481,62756,099R +7.9
Navajo County22,67523,9501,44348,068R +2.7
Apache County21,2178,51398230,712D +41.3
Gila County9,49316,03573526,263R +24.9
Santa Cruz County11,7405,20532917,274D +37.8
Graham County4,2309,71835814,306R +38.4
La Paz County2,3244,5882297,141R +31.7
Greenlee County1,3531,7401093,202R +12.2

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.